NSW Sydney vs Brisbane in the long term

Property gurus, I need your wisdom once again. I'm thinking of buying a property around $900k.

I'm tossing up between a house in Western Sydney, or a house in Brisbane. I'm not too worried about temporary downturns in the Sydney market because I'll be holding onto it for 10+ years.

Is this a correct mindset? Are these downturns temporary or will we feel the effects after 10 or 15+ years?

Brisbane is booming at the moment and Sydney is slowing. Maybe money invested in Brisbane will be worth more in 15 years. Your thoughts?

 

@Adrian_91

Presume this is for investment? Are you using savings or equity?

Brisbane offers much stronger returns than Sydney right now. There is a rental crisis and rents have been rising consistently.

Are you able to realise the Brisbane gains / equity and then re-invest in Sydney? Given Sydney is due to go sideways for a little while. As in do you have the borrowing capacity to do that next?

Are you able to hold on to the property in Sydney with the low rental yields? Having said that Brisbane yields have been reducing all this time as well.

$900k is a decent budget to buy something quality in Brisbane within 25-30minutes of city on a large block - may be even closer. $900k - in Sydney will take you way further out!

Sydney will always be Sydney Brissy gains are hard to ignore!

 

Do you have ppor in sydney? Do you expect to stay in sydney for the long term?

 

No not ppor, primarily as an investment for long term growth. Will be rentvesting or staying with parents for the free rent

Yeah planning to stay long term. Cashing out from Brisbane in 5-10 years after their boom is over and buying in Sydney might be the best option, but I may not be able to secure as high of a loan at that time. So I'm planning to buy for the long term.

Gotta be careful not to positive gear the crap out of myself lol.

 

Are you so absolutely certain brisbane will outperform sydney in the next 5-10 years, especially with the cgt you would have to pay to sell?

The last few years have been a bit of a widowmaker market for those who thought sydney would underperform even relatively.

Ppor upgrades are powerful because ppor is cgt free, usually.

staying with parents is fine, but if you have a partner or family it can change quickly.

 

That's a lot to think about, thanks. Do you offer mortgage in QLD as well?

Also what do you mean by "Sydney will always be Sydney"? I'm guessing you mean it will always be expensive, most people only being able to afford property on the fringes?

 

Perth is the way to go now.

Brisbane will follow Sydney within 6 months downwards.

 

Sydney might be slowing right now, but no doubt it will go up in the next 10-15 years. Especially certain areas like Seven Hills, etc. Brisbane most likely as well, due to the Olympics that are confirmed for 2032.

Perth I'm not so sure will go up... seems like a riskier investment to me.

 

I don't really understand. I would have to pay CGT for a sydney ppor as well, if I decide to sell it with a profit. What's the difference between Sydney and Brisbane? Is it just the cgt on upgrades to property that will make the difference?

 

Ppor is usually cgt free. Conditions apply. Talk to your tax advisor. if you rentvest this might not apply. But also you may want ppor at some point, eg if you have a family.

 

Holy crap you're right. But apparently it only applies if I don't rent it out for the entire 15 years, which I will be doing. Guess I'll be paying that damn $50k+ no matter where I buy.

I'm not too worried about CGT, I think it's peanuts compared to the profit from capital growth over time.

 

10%+ of the market value when you sell is peanuts? compared to zero cgt when you sell ppor (if you meet the conditions).

you are underestimating how your life might change in the future imho. At some point you will want a ppor.

Imagine if you had to sell brisbane ips, pay 10-15% tax to get a deposit and free up borrowing capacity, then realise after all that you might have been better off just buying ppor, living in it and upgrading in sydney. While going through the rental market for a decade because you ‘guess’ rentvesting is better.

think it wont happen? How much experience are you speaking from?

 

Why don't you just seek expert advice to get your definitive answers, rather than guessing will it/won't it/dam it. Two areas I'd never take lightly is tax and the law.

 

Sydney hasn't had a downturn (bar the Covid hiccup) in 14 years. It will come before prices start rising again. So your "no doubt" may not happen for 10 years.

Brisbane is on the way up. It has been flat for a long time. The Olympics are 10 years away. I doubt things will surge until then.

If you are not sure Perth will go up do more research. I think Sydney is the riskier option for a 10 year plan as it is coming off HUGE increases (and this is after a boom).

 

Yeah fair enough, I kind of see what you're saying. Would be an extra burn if Seven Hills rises more than Brisbane.

 

Depends how good your predictions are, really.

what did you think would happen to sydney in 2018? There is a difference between ‘buy the market that i think will have the highest gain’ and ‘what if my prediction is wrong?’

 

Right, so better to think in terms of "what if my prediction goes wrong. Am I prepared for a bad situation?"

 

sydney has surprised on the upside. Will it continue? Dont know. Didnt expect it to boom after 2018, but glad i bet against my predictions.

 

Brisbane for sure …prices r still rising steadily as I’m also looking to buy there currently …and the other consideration is rental yield and demand is really good in brisbane if u get within 10 to 15km from cbd

 

IGNORE the short term views being portrayed around here. There are ppl talking about 6-12 months timelines. LOL

Real estate is not the share market. Timing it and buying/selling in short bursts etc....is not typically how someone becomes wealthy off RE. Its a long term goal.

Who cares what happens in the next 6 or even 24-36-48 months if your plan is to hold for 10+ years. Ignore the rubbish.

Long term you are 100% guaranteed to make money on real estate. Some ppl on here are like 60 years old man. They dont have the luxury off waiting another 10-20 years for another 2-3 booms hence why they are trying to time the market now so they can at least enjoy their money they've made before they die.