NSW Sydney Update Please

yes, you backed a winner

EPPING

 

Yes, I am out now.
But I should have sold 3 months ago as it turned relatively quickly. I was too busy should I, or should I not... should I won out hehe

MTR

 

I work in IT...and let me tell you that industry is going through one heck of a transformation....it will be interesting to see if people hold on to their jobs.

The IT jobs of the future require more commercial nous....as well as how to run a P&L. A lot of people are going into IT thinking it is technical skills which will get them ahead. ...far from it.

Unfortunately...the wages are also going to come down significantly as companies continue to push down wages...

The Indian outsources are also feeling the pinch as the price sensitivity is also affecting them. There are lot of their resources onshore here on 80-90k.....and this is causing adjustment of other wages. In particular the technical areas....

 

I think some of Epping's data is skewed because of all the rezoning recently to high density where people in the whole block are selling it all to developers for high rises. It would be interesting to see what happens next year or two in regard to median now that things are slowing down.

 

I work in IT for the same company for the last 15 years. Like any company we go through period of restructuring. This is normal part of a company transformation.

We can't keep talent. We have been constantly interviewing. IT is not an emerging or booming industry, but definite not a stale industry... We keep losing talent to outside because outside pays 150k, while most our engineer in the company gets paid 80-120k

Our VP announced 40% of the engineers got a pay rise. I am one of them. it's not a lot but it is a pay rise.

 

The Sydney downturn is only beginning.....from peak to trough...it could be minus 30%.....in some parts....the adjustment happens gradually till sellers and market meet...and it stabilises till the next boom.

It won't only be Western suburbs you will see deals everywhere.

The last boom...ended in 2003....the best pickings were in 2005-2006!

 

I'd say there were some pretty good deals around after the GFC hit

Cliff

 

2008 was a great time to buy. 2005 was the pits... no capital gains for 3 years, at least where I bought. But then again, I was very green... no idea how to negotiate...

 

I'm not sure if it is appropriate to use WB's quote now.
I wouldn't classify members of this forum under 'Others'. Also, the fear hasn't hit the Sydney market yet. It will take rate rises or job losses together with media drama for the fear to kick in.
I would say, that is the time to be greedy.

 

I think the wages thing has been happening for the last 7 years at least?

Indian outsourcing has priced themselves out of the market now as wage demands have risen over there. Philippines seems to be where it's at the moment. Same "quality" too.

Wow, long innings! I think I've been through about 5 in that time! Yep, I think that says a bit really. Depends in your specialisation. Certain roles are hard to fill, but if you offer enough you will find the people.

Sounds similar to us. It's frustrating to see people leave and have to spend 6 months getting people up to speed. We struggle to keep people for longer than 18 months. Good organisational culture, many benefits, but even that is not enough.

 

Yep...the Indians are now going to places like Phillipines and Eastern Europe..and parts of Latin America. Matter of time before they start laying off Indian staff.

The technical staff are dime a dozen now...

It will be hard for people tied to one company for 15 years.....unless they have moved jobs within the company every couple of years.

 

@RetireRich101 I wouldn't say @sash, Skater and I are long time investor buddies. We do know each other though.
You can't really compare my portfolio to Sash's. I've been pretty conservative really. And I'm willing to retire on a lower cash flow. I know Sash could retire now on more cashflow than I have at the moment if he wanted to. Everyone has their own plan. If I was 10 years younger I wouldn't be retiring now, I would have invested more heavily, worked a bit longer and built up more cashflow. But at 57 the time is right for me.

 

Yes...TB...yours is pretty conservative because you like Skater sold a couple at the peak.

That was very insightful...as the market has changed. You both not only took maximum equity off the table but also reduced your debt levels significantly as well as boost your returns.

I try to keep my LVR under 40%...I know yours is significantly below.

I have about another 5 years or so before I pull the plug...I am still under 50.

 

For auction it could be either Buyers Guide or like you said no guide

Buyers will also be able to ask the agent what they wrote in the sales agreement for the agent's opinon of the price. In the sales agreement agents can only have a max range of 10%. So for example Agents Opinon: $500,000-$550,000

$22,000 fine if a simple mistake is made, say even $550,000-570,000

If it is an unsual property, agent needs to make notes next to the comparable properties provided with notes on it and how the property compares to each property

 

Hmmm, I think you strictly make your mind by numbers. Not wrong though but the median is not the correct price to be referred, specially not to derive any conclusions. Had it been an average, that would have been a different story though.

Indians are migrating in big numbers, still. Most of them prefer to buy PPOR first. Most of them are in IT. Most of them get paid good. Most of them will also stretch to an amount because the dream is to have a place to call their own, a place to settle down, these constitute the 70% that dont give a **** where cycle is at or how the prices are now or will be after 2 years. So buying will not stop.

It is the 30% that are more cautious, grab deals at a price way lower than market to get a good cash flow and rentals. These are investors. So this 30% will eventually get out and the prices will fall; more with time. More at some places, less on the other.

All opinions count and all strategies work for individuals. Some work with numbers and some with guts. some, like me just follow the herd.


Regards
Ashish

 

hey nick, what are townhouses going for at Quakers and what are they renting for?

 

Yes they are...

 

Great...more to pick-up later at a discount...

 

I live in Kogarah area and I've been going to auctions predominately in the last two months or so, getting a feel for the market. What I've noticed is that markets have slowed dramatically and lots of properties being passed in around the area. I've also encountered vendors with high expectation, with one average renovated house going up to $1.61mil but vendor wanted $1.8mil (Bought for $500k 5 years ago I think, underwent a renovation). This is now being listed as For Sale, although I doubt they would get that much in this market now. A lot of high rise apartment were completed this year, and a lot are listed "For Sale" around the $800k mark, bought two years ago OTP for $600k perhaps. I think it'll be a hard sell as I've seen like 10 listings for similar property in the same building (it's 15 stories). Interestingly this week, no auctions are scheduled this week, with vendors pulling out. I'm pessimistic for next year.

 

auction clearance today
median is now under 1 mil
only 320 listed though
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/Sydney_Domain.pdf