Sydney too expensive? Try Melbourne.

Does not have the same drivers as Melb and Syd
Also oversupply of units/apartments as impacted on property market in general

 

There's still a lot of stock on market (SOM) in many suburbs in Brisbane, in my onthehouse emails I can see SOM rates of around 1% in some areas. But in Sydney sub 0.5% is quite common for SOM. So the seller:buyer ratio is favouring sellers in Sydney. In Brisbane (talking in a broad sense) there are still not enough buyers for prices to go up sharply like it has in Sydney. However demand in Brisbane varies significantly and some areas don't have this problem at all, in these areas (generally closer to the city) it's easy to sell a house quickly and there's competition for it, forcing up prices.

In Sydney the options for buyers is very compromised. There's a lack of supply of homes near the city, prices remain high. So this ripples out. Apartments are a bit easier but prices are still high. Plus lots of people still prefer to buy a house if they can afford it.

I can only guess any FHBs looking to buy houses in the middle or inner ring on a typical salary in Sydney must have generous parents to help them out, though i'm not even sure if FHBs have the serviceability to buy a PPOR in inner or middle Sydney for ~$1.5 mill even if they do have the deposit. So for cheaper prices people have turned to the West, South West, Blue Mountains, Central Coast and the Illawarra with the extra demand, these areas have gone up significantly, the drawback is the substantial commute times to get to Sydney.

I have no idea when demand for Sydney will drop off, not sure if it will just gradual easing of demand with interest rates increasing and tighter banking policy causing it or some international event that will trigger a big slowdown. If it is an international event all Australian cities will be affected, but Sydney's (and Melbourne's) economies are generally better placed than others - these are the safest Australian cities in any downturn. They'll bounce back the fastest imo, attracting the most migrants.

Just my opinion.

 

Link? If you are not interested.

 

Just finished my 2016 review and 2017 forecast. Some quick info on QLD vs. Victoria:

• QLD has less full time employees now than at the end of 2014, while VIC has over 200,000 more
• QLD population growth was down from ~110,000 in the year to Jun 09, to ~65,000 to June 16. VIC hit record in June 16 of 123,000 people
• In the 12 months to June 16 (used as that is latest population data), QLD approved 50,513 dwellings. VIC approved 67,114. (1.8ppl/dwelling VIC, 1.3ppl/dwelling QLD)
• QLD state debt ~$36bn, VIC state surplus ~$2bn

Both states will be overbuilding based on current approvals, but clearly QLD more so than VIC at this point.

Jobs in QLD continue to be a struggle. Dwelling approvals have fallen sharply in response to the market in recent months. That means construction work will slow, which will continue to drag on employment, particularly as the debtted government cannot afford stimulus.

VIC will struggle to maintain its popuation growth rate as employment growth slows. This will happen as the construction sector finds its peak, and most government projects are ramped up. there will be stable employment for a number of years that will underpin strong market prices, however over the next few years expect to see the number of completions cause supply to finally outstrip demand.

 

I agree with hiring a buyer's agent but my understanding is unfortunately it's not tax deductible. Rather, the fee is added to the cost base of the property and therefore reduces the CG tax when sold.

 

It's already gone. My Saturdays are tied up lately (stupid club cricket games) else would have made an offer.

Another water front bargain I identified the other day also got sold in 2-3 days of being listed.

 

I wasn't interested personally in purchasing. Just interested generally from a chat about property pov