NSW Sydney - the facts

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by trendsta, 13th Nov, 2017.

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  1. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Now I know why I don't like that guy. I am an employee working for a wage. I also invest in real estate. I invest with an expectation of being "paid" within a 5 to 10 year time frame. Of course it doesn't take that long. My most recent property investment is paying me after 19 months.
     
  2. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    @trendsta

    Thats a reasonable post.

    Given the size and concentration of our economy, infrastructure and population, Melbourne and Sydney are about the main places where your money will be safe both short-term and long-term.

    It would be foolish to think that we could sustain a 10% to 15% growth, year on year, every year for ever. But it is just as foolish to think that we are going to have any significant correction either.

    Sure, homes near train lines, main streets, power cables etc wont sell as crazy as they used to but good homes and/or locations will continue to sell and I dare say these types of properties will have up to 5% growth next year with 2 to 3% the year after in Sydney.

    Then again you get people who never bought or sold too early who have nothing better to do to post and in their little world they think that their opinion makes any difference.
     
  3. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    How is the belt line of Atlanta going?
     
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    We just sold our multi (quad), 9 offers, and a flip.
    Will post the numbers shortly.

    Check out media, Atlanta 5 townhouse development, on to 3rd level now, hoping to complete this in first quarter of 2018.

    MTR:)
     
    Last edited: 17th Nov, 2017
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  5. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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  6. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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  7. Zoolander

    Zoolander Well-Known Member

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    A 3 bedder thats 3min walk from Mascot station (200ish metres?) and <10min train ride to Sydney CBD went up for auction asking $980k about 2mths back. No bites. Good luck to these Would be surprised if Bella Vista prices are this close to Sydney city
     
  8. toby chilman

    toby chilman New Member

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    With the fall in clearance rates, I moved to Short term lets as short term option increase income, during the summer. I use a management company to do this. Cannot speak highly enough of the service. Its the perfect short term fix!
     
  9. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Maybe I am the confused one here. But I think JDP is saying there is an opportunity cost of riding out a long flat period. His retort to those who may say "it wont fall by much". Being stuck in a flat period can still be financially disadvantageous vs buying somewhere else that rises.
     
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  10. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    100% true. My sister had an IP in Mt Austin Wagga. It did nothing over something like a 7 year period, and overall when you factor in the buying and selling costs it was a loss. Meanwhile if she had put the same in Sydney the value of the property she would have bought would have doubled.
     
  11. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Correct. Instead of guessing how much it will fall and where, it's more likely that there will be a longer flat period and that flat period has an opportunity cost. I'd be thinking more about that than how much it will fall.
    Timing the market is not only about thr spikes in either direction.. It's about the flatness as well and the cost that it incurs in lost opportunity.
     
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  12. trendsta

    trendsta Well-Known Member

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    Sydney powers the nation, accounting for almost half of Australia's economic growth

    "Sydney has become Australia's economic powerhouse, accounting for almost half of Australia's economic growth... The extraordinary figure of 41.2 per cent ... Sydney's economy grew 3.3 per cent during 2016-17... A rough measure of living standards, GDP per capita grew 1 per cent in Sydney ... economic activity was gravitating to Sydney "

    "The knowledge-intensive industries in which we are globally competitive are best located in big dense cities with good access to highly skilled labour."

    We are amidst a massive global tech / innovation boom. In Aus, Syd is most linked to this boom.
    For those comparing Syd current conditions to previous 2003 peak, or to Perth peak in 2013.. the difference is economy is very strong..
     
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  13. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    '

    Yep, it feels like a booming city to me.

    This doesn't necessarily mean housing is bullet proof, its just hard to imagine a big housing market correction while you have a booming economy. IMO that isn't happening. It may delay a correction/make it bigger when it does, but regulatory settings are now designed to get more resilience (low rates, P&I loans, incentives to deleverage households) into households over coming years to help cushion any debt issues that may be on the surface now.
     
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  14. trendsta

    trendsta Well-Known Member

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    Back in late 2017, I got the Syd market movement severely WRONG. I was expecting ~5-7% drop in median by mid 2018 and then a floor, followed by slow growth, based on various pro and con factors.

    However it eventuated in a ~16% drop in median by mid 2019. The most severe drop in syd median in the modern era, and possibly the 3rd worst in a century.

    So rather than holding onto my views ... I analysed the market, changed my views and strategy accordingly. By Dec 2018 I started searching, hunting, going to open homes, auctions etc. It felt like late 2008-09 on the ground - dead silent , full of fear , hesitation , no confidence.

    By April-2019 found a great deceased estate deal with dev potential <15 km from cbd and bought with delayed settlement.

    In this case my initial views were wrong, but I adjusted based on prevailing market conditions, found a great deal and acted on it. I find most economists and forecasters hold onto their views, and then when prevailing market conditions change find excuses to keep justifying their views.

     
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  15. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Very true, a hard lesson to learn and relearn in all aspects of life. Well done, and congrats on the deal.
     
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  16. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

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  17. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    I lived in a brand new Meriton place a for a couple of years in Mascot recently (across the road from the place thats been evacuated). We had a nice time there, but did have a few separate building issues (flooding mainly). On the upside, it was nice to go downstairs, tell them about it and have it fixed pretty quickly (except for the third issue, that cost me a bit from memory but they handled it all). Overall I quite liked having that level of service on call and readily available. They were the landlord too, so it just made things easy (which is why we liked living there). On the downside...the building was brand new, so one would hope that there'd be no issues to begin with.

    I'm in a ~100 year old house now though...so the above issues don't seem too bad!
     
  18. Oliver Shane

    Oliver Shane Well-Known Member

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    You missed a couple.

    What about rents declining?
    Supply overhang still looming?
     
  19. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    The post your replied to is 2 years old, if you read on, Trendsta revived the thread to highlight that he/she misjudged the severity of the downturn, but has since adjusted and invested accordingly.
     
  20. Oliver Shane

    Oliver Shane Well-Known Member

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    Oh haha, serves me right for commenting before my morning coffee :)
     
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