Sydney - the coming correction 2018-2022

Another Sahinomics follower here

 

you reckon it will affect all price brackets? or just under $650k?

 

Up to $850k in NSW/VIC....

 

Nah mate ya need to read !@datto book on Boganomics he is a true Bogan Lauerate... he got his honorary Doctorate from Mt Druie Uni....he did his undergraduate at Logan Boga Uni...his major was Thonging...

 

Yep. Labour are so comfortable being anti-property at the moment.

It’s not just the big changes like negative gearing but all the small mandates and directions to regulators etc

 

That's only going to affect the market a little bit isn't it how much is the influence of fhbs?

 

This 5% deposit thingy might breathe new life in the Druitt. The area needs a new set of lungs. Ones that aren't coughing and splattering every morning lol.

 

Mate...that coughing and spluttering in the Druie...is due to Ganja mon! Nutin else....

 

Why specifically? Do you think that people will sell because they think that other people will stop buying due to the negative gearing removal? isn't that supposed to not kick in for a few years (and be grandfathered for existing)?

 

Well according to labor they intend to implement negative gearing change by 1 Jan 2020.

There's the capital gains tax thingie as well

But mostly it just that if labor comes into power, it seems it will contribute to more negative sentiment, which can be a bigger driver of prices. Plus u never know what other policy changes they are going to announce when they win.

 

My 2 cents - Domain and RE love finding a positive story on property "declines are slowing" etc yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Wasn't there a spike in NZ property prices before negative gearing limits implemented, in the midst of a general slowdown - Like people were grabbing property to grandfather the negative gearing?

 

Well some of the commodores out there have missed their regular 5 year service. They tend to cough a bit also.

 

Stories said the same thing this time 12 months ago.

 

My 2c... we still have a while to run on the downturn because new supply has not been so imbalanced since the mid 2000s.

Dwelling approvals as a predictor for coming completions:
NSW hit 70,000 approvals/year in late 2015 holding that until early 2018, and only now are we starting to see the supply hit from that (long lead times on large apartments). Expect this level of supply to continue for some time yet.



New people to the state per dwelling completion, with scenario forecasts. Sydney's current rate of supply is the most cooked it has been since the mid 2000's. Even in best scenarios, it won't be until after 2020 that it balances out again.


IMO i don't really care what economic levers are pulled and twisted, fact is there is going to be more houses come to market than there are people to live in them. that pushes rents down, which is not conducive to price rises.