Sydney - the coming correction 2018-2022

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by sash, 3rd Dec, 2017.

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  1. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Nice thread and nice prediction.

    As always the old hands see this a mile away, while the new buyers in the last cycle always say "this time is different, Aust has migration, can't fall"
     
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  2. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I'll take that as a compliment Johnston. ;)
     
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  3. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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  4. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Nice calls.

    Hard to predict how this one will play out based on previous cycles, as it's already deeper than most prev downturns and the conditions and drivers are pretty unusual. I.e we have very low interest rates and decent employment numbers.
     
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  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep agreed...the downturn is very deep.

    I also feel that anyone who is jumping in now in Sydney is going to get clobbered.

    I personally would not touch Sydney...too much negativity...and the returns are very poor.

    Some people are jumping into the lower socio areas in the west huge mistake. I would rather put them in areas like the Bankstown/Canterbury area where there is much more value for not a lot more compared to other places out West.
     
  6. Chabs

    Chabs Well-Known Member

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    North of the m4 will always have a bit of an appeal to it, remember when castle hill was a trashy place? There was a time when baulkham Hills was in the sticks... it takes longer for the other side of Sydney to gentrify, I think the gentrification wave is still in belmore/campsie.
     
  7. icic

    icic Well-Known Member

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    It's going to be a slow burner from now on with Sydney vacancy edging up, policy uncertainties, banks not lending combine with low inflation and low wage growth. It will be a long 'U' shaped recovery at-least stretching to the mid next decade before we can see major growth again I reckon.
     
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  8. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    You stole my idea lol and I don't really know much about Sydney suburbs at all but this seemed to be obvious. I think I remember when I pointed this out it was in the context of people defending hi prices in places like baulkham Hills which shows bad value in comparison to these other oneseven taking into consideration it's a prettier location overall in terms of gentrification modernity crime etc
     
  9. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I also think the difference between previous cycles is the level of international money Sydney 2003 is a very different price demographically then Sydney 2018 Sydney is much more an Asian city now then it was and whilst there are challenges with foreign economies and foreign investment there's just so many millions of people in those countries and such a high number overall of wealthy people in those countries that I think it's a big influence on the Australian property market much more than it was in 2003
     
  10. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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  11. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    18.

    I note that even the core logic chief economist is now talking 40%. remember when that was considered crazy talk?
     
  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yeah....I said about 25%....but 40% is still a lot overall...but 40% in places like Epping/Ryde and some Mt Druitt suburbs is not out of the question. They have already taken 25% hits....Sutherland is also being hit very hard.
     
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  13. ttn

    ttn Well-Known Member

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  14. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Silly people....no hurry...happens every cycle....they are thinking they will build a duplex or something. No profit on that sort of numbers......
     
  15. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Core logic are pretty respected and wouldn't want to be talking the market down but yes that figure does seem a little bit high. But what are we at overall already? getting close to 15% yet?
     
  16. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    These "experts" are all the same..when its falling, predict much further falls, when its rising, predict more larger rises.. Always just following the trend already in place. Always the same in the end however; failing to call a turn around when it does come, or is even close.

    GFC: "stocks to fall another 50%", oil prices: "oil to fall to $30/bbl". Usually right at close to the bottom too :rolleyes:
     
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  17. Chicken or Beef?

    Chicken or Beef? Well-Known Member

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    Are the experts rich? I only like listening to rich people.

    Same as this forum, plenty of people with opinions but how many of them really have the runs on the board?

    I know someone who started a business recently advising people on investments but their net worth is piddly lol. I feel sorry for his clients but maybe he can take their money and become rich too lol. Bum steers at 10k a pop.
     
  18. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    This sums up for the clowns that think they are guru's predicting crashes and slow downs..on this forum. LOL
     
  19. sqe

    sqe Well-Known Member

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    Quality call, and a call made before averaged results had time to filter through. Still lots of headwind. With yields still relatively low, vacancy rates increasing, employment at a low, rates at a low, global growth decreasing, incomes not growing, and APRA not lifting lending criteria it looks set to continue yet
     
  20. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Spot on. It's called "recency bias", and it prevents people seeing turning points. Very normal, but I can't see -40% correction happening. To go from -13% to -40% in Sydney is a catastrophe and they would reduce interest rates well before that happened - sacrificing the AUD over property prices.

    Our population centres are too concentrated, and there is not that much excess supply in the major capitals.
     
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