Sydney - the coming correction 2018-2022

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by sash, 3rd Dec, 2017.

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  1. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep...I would not believe any of the Douche Bag economists in any bank.....

    From what I am seeing on the ground in Sydney...it am of the belief the downturn has just begun...it will take a few years to flatten out. The higher priced suburbs and lower socio area are in for a pummeling.
     
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  2. MWI

    MWI Well-Known Member

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    Sash I had to look up what 'pummeling' means?
    Ok I get it now....
    The higher priced suburbs or real high end properties, IMHO, I think the latter.
    In some suburbs 100% ownership is over 50% so I would assume a lowering in prices but not a pummeling?
     
  3. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    The suburbs most at risk are the $1.5 to $3m. You are correct...the areas where people already own their homes outright are less at risk. But the issue is this also have a lot of baby boomer who are retiring in drove and trying to free up equity. With the current lending conditions not many people will be able to get into these homes..so the only way to move these homes on will be to reduce the price. Most BB would have bought their homes for under 300k...so if they sell a place for $1.6m instead of $2m they won't feel it.....

    On the positive side..I am seeing a hell a lot of demand for 3x2x2 150-180sqm homes ...near infrastructure. I have built quit a few of these in anticipation of demand and it is coming through now....
     
  4. MWI

    MWI Well-Known Member

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    Interesting, it would be nice to see how many downsize, also with the government changing selling of PPOR and moving $300K into Super?
    Saw neighbours sell as quite old and one has serious health issues, but next door downsized and will build a new 3 Bedder as you mentioned. The downsizers so far have been mixed, some selling much higher priced properties and rebuilding in close proximity with great views smaller but newer houses (we are in Environmental zone, so no townhouses, units, duplexes, permitted!) whereas some moving to smaller complexes like a unit?
    I agree the demographics are changing and proximity to infrastructure or walkability factor becomes more vital.
     
  5. RenegadeDom

    RenegadeDom Well-Known Member

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    Are these outer south west locations?
     
  6. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nah all in Melbourne or Geelong...the price of these are within the price of a similar home on a larger block.
     
  7. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Here’s some data

    E9922BB3-6AF5-40D3-A209-1FDB5B932BEC.jpeg
     
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  8. KinG3o0o

    KinG3o0o Well-Known Member

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    hmmm inner city apartments dont look such a bad move anymore .
     
  9. Duck1234

    Duck1234 Well-Known Member

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  10. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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  11. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....and the incomes are increasing there.....
     
  13. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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  14. L3ha7

    L3ha7 Well-Known Member

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    Talks about greater parramatta area but Not all the suburbs.
     
  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    It will affect places like Wentworthville, Pendle Hill, Toongabbie...also...and on the other side Granville, Merrylands...
     
  16. L3ha7

    L3ha7 Well-Known Member

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    Northmead,northrocks and winston/baulkham hills are safe then. I know article does talk about Hills district but there are so many good pockets. WPH is still looking good :)
     
  17. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nutin is safe they went up too much....these areas have a lot of Baby Boomer who bought in the 70 and 80s...the supply will exceed demand shortly.
     
  18. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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  19. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty happy for prices to come down in these areas, as it's an opportunity to upgrade my PPOR. Considering my current PPOR was bought cheap, I'll still be ahead and the rental return will cover pretty much the outgoings.
     
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  20. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep...and they will they are now over a $1m...time will come again when some drop below a mil again....
     
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