Sydney - the coming correction 2018-2022

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by sash, 3rd Dec, 2017.

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  1. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    This morning

    3ECAEEAE-94FA-4F52-9A7B-89231757EAA9.jpeg
     
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  2. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Ya goin' to get yourself killed.....;)....Sydney never drops.
     
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  3. Ekin200

    Ekin200 Well-Known Member

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    Hate to say it... but @sash you were spot on... the truth hurts... and statistics don't lie (even the clearance rates for houses in the North Shore have come down substantially) time to really focus on reducing LVR (~50% levels) and consolidate b4 interest rates rise ... if you have access to cash... it wouldn't be a bad time to buy over the next 18 months...
     
  4. Ekin200

    Ekin200 Well-Known Member

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    Saw this article on REA and it's not a good look... unfortunately the article is almost spot on...
     
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  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Know what ya mean.....but it will take some time for the punters to adjust.
     
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  6. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Truth of the matter guys is these results/outcomes are a normal part of the cycle. I hope clearance rates stay low and prices moderate. Prices overshot, now they're correcting. Nothing to see here.

    The WORSE thing that could have happened was for the 2014-2017 to continue.

    The only elephant, and its a big one, is whether the finance tap will be turned back on in the medium term.
     
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  7. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    More pain to come..the fundamentals will come back to the market...places like East and North Shore will be ok....even Inner West will be okay.

    NW, SW, and West that will be another story.

    Just came from a 3x2x2 auction older unit (70s) in Lane Cove...just sold for 815k...this product would have sold for 950k plus on 12 months ago. So the market has definitely softened.....interest was there but it took the auctioneer 30 minutes to get it from 780k opening to 815k....what does that tell ya?

    By the way more pain on the finance front...in terms of serviceablity it is going to get harder when Credit Scoring comes in and the associated transparency cuts out all the dodgy stuff.
     
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  8. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    All markets will be somewhat affected, not just Sydney.
     
  9. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    That’s off the asking price. Any losses being made though? Could be just vendors expecting 10% return but having to settle with 5%. I wouldn’t know, I’m not familiar with that particular market.
     
  10. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Prob Syd and Mel the most....many other places not over priced and previously flooded with investors spending equity that xant be done same way anymore......
     
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  11. Ekin200

    Ekin200 Well-Known Member

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    Yes... and when the interest rates rise in Australia combined with io moving to p&i... things will get interesting.
    Can't believe the "punters" are not confronting the raw actual data. They are almost as stubborn as the climate change sceptics... lol
     
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  12. fols

    fols Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. 18 months will put you at the start of a long period of stagnation (based on last cycle anyway). Why would you want to buy then? Generally speaking, I would want to see prices moving north before I went again, not prices coming off. Exceptions include value add projects- but even then you’d want to be an expert in given area/ asset type.
     
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  13. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Nah..emigration
    Yes mate...that is the sheer cliff...you article was also mentioned on realestate.com and also in the SMH. This will impact the psyche of the market. Not good news for the Sydney market.

    Home sellers drop listed prices by up to 30 per cent in pockets of Sydney - realestate.com.au

    Have you got out of any of your Sydney properties...you have a large portfolio...at least you are not sticking your head in the sand. Also based on our last convo you have massive amounts of equity also...so you can ride it out if you want.... ;)
     
  14. wooster

    wooster Well-Known Member

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    You meant the decline started late 2017? not 2016?
     
  15. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    Anyone see the revised clearance rate for Sydney last week is 54%. Initially it was 68% until all the unreported listings came through.
     
  16. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    What debt has to do with workforce? Nothing.

    I have a friend who declared bankruptcy. She is still and always was employed, just overextended herself.
     
  17. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    I deleted the comment because it wasn't relevant to the thread.

    After the US housing crash: skip to 15:00

    "Debt limits were lowered to 38% of household income".

    That's pretty much what I expect to happen here for whatever reason. The idea being to keep people as active in the workforce/consumerism as possible to prevent further declines to the economy?
    .
     
  18. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Reducing debt stimulates expenditure. Yes. But that is a completely separate issue to employment. Higher expenditure keeps businesses afloat by creating inventory turnover and promotion of sales.

    It might promote employment only indirectly via stimulation of industries when consumption is benefiting local businesses. However, that usually happens towards the end of the cycle when people are already seeing the light at the end of tunnel.
     
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Some of them did start winding down as early as late 2016.

    Talked to a Northern beaches agent...he reckons the market had started downwards in place like Dee Why in very early 2017. Now the supply is huge he reckons the unit market has come off 10-15%.

    What is interesting..is with presenting facts and articles in the newspapers, realestate, domain, auction clearance....it is crickets from the trolls. :p:D
     
  20. Sannie

    Sannie Well-Known Member

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