NSW Sydney property prices falling

I suspect south side of Victoria Road (Rozelle/Lilyfield), which doesn't seem to be moving as fast, especially if there is no parking. Hope he/she can offload at a decent price.

 

No stress here, and a .28% fall in half a month is not a .56% in a month.

However getting back to your post yesterday,

bond markets. pricing in a 95% chance of rate rise in dec in USA.

pricing in a 75% chance of 2 rate rises in Australia by June 2018.

perhaps you can get around to replying to my question, although to date you have been
incapable of doing so.

Perhaps you should put up your data source to support your position

 

Turk - it's just data... you can't fight data Turke.

 

It is data not opinion and below is that data, which shows no 75% chance of 2 rate rises in Australia by June 2018.


Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
RBA Cash Rate 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25

10-year Benchmark Bond Yields
Australia 3.00 3.05 3.05 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40

Last Updated 6 November 2017

 

The yield curve has been included in each reply to you,

10-year Benchmark Bond Yields

Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
Australia 3.00 3.05 3.05 3.30 3.40 3.40 3.40 3.40
Last Updated 6 November 2017

 

it's really accelerating... it's already -0.5% for 22 days in Nov... it'll be about -0.7% for full month

 

Leaving Perth in its dust for quarterly losses, and on course for a yoy lead by February-March 2018...

 

Analysing real estate the same way you do stocks is in my opinion, a complete waste of time.

 

I'm not applying stock method, I'm applying math methods... and it's better than blind predictions or hopes, e.g. made by SQM regarding "up to 16% growth in 2017 for Sydney".

 

Whatever works for you is great. That's why i said its only my opinion. For me when it comes to real estate I have never found much use at looking at how much %age growth or decline a market has in a matter of days. Then, when you factor in a state that has thousands of markets, demographics and some have unique drivers for specific markets, those broad percentages being analysed over a very shot period of time ( days) for ALL markets, is really imho useless when analysing overall market opportunities/risks.

Also I would never put too much stock in 'Maths' when it comes to an investment class which is highly emotionally driven. Just how I see it.

 

Personally I am emotionally incapacitated and devastated by the apocalyptic 0.5% drop in Sydney house prices over a month.

 

Keep at it Alex, I appreciate what you do, it’s a refreshing change from the self back patting that goes on here sometimes.

 

Its ok, there's still about 80% growth to play with

 

Agreed it's useless for a specific market or property, but it's usefull to understand what's happening in this industry in general - of course, together with other data / indicators. When you see black clouds in the sky and going outside, you take an umbrella, but it doesn't mean there is no posibilitty to be dry if you leave your umbrella at home.

you don't see a full picture and my previous calculations/data, that's why you think I'm analysing only day data.

 

Yep, that's what I find most useful, especially on the ground qualitative feedback in the specific area. Real example, according to rp data Moorooka qld homes grew in value approx 5% last 12 months. However I helped a friend about 6 months ago buy an Ip house for mid 550k and just recently very comparable stock is selling for 70-100k more, that's more like 15% growth approx. If you talk to ppl on the ground there and look at sales history in that specific area, it tells a different story of supply/demand and the 5% annual growth rate.

 

it's like in a hospital. Avg patient temperature is 36.6C, but it doesn't mean everyone is fine... someone could be dead, others can have fever 39+... however, when average temp goes suddenly down under 36... you can assume there is some problem in that hospital (in general)... others can think it is because number of dead persons is stable, but number of treated is increasing, but specific patients can be just fine. You can't make conclusion here if you don't have other data (e.g. you can also know there is some deadly virus epidemy now). You can go to that hospital and be treated well if you know stats for specific doctor/room/conditions... but would you go there if you don't have those details and see just overal stats for many hospitals? (another example - Naplan ranking of Australian schools - good ranking does not always mean good education)

This topic about Sydney in general and about property market news (mostly on some level of aggregation), not specific suburb. If an investor wants to have an opinion for specific suburb... there is always an option to ask (or read) in 'Where to buy'.

Finally... just want to add that in reality markets are not isolated. If one market goes up or down, there are corrections for other surrounding markets, just with delay, so overal picture can be usefull to understand constraints for future growth.

 

It has to start some where.
What will you do when its 10%....then 20%.....then 30%

 

What would I do, if that was to occur?

Hmm..build up a warchest and go shopping!!

 

For an Asset class that has further to fall?

 

Just my own take here. People make all kinds of poor purchases, every single day of the year. Buying an asset that falls 30%+ is imo 9/10 times the buyer's poor purchase. Could be bought at a poor time, poor stock, poor price, poor strategy with it etc. If i bought an asset that dropped 30-60% in value I would take a long, hard look at where I went wrong and how i can do better in the future.