NSW Sydney property prices falling

Sydney auction clearance rates drop again to 63%.... tick tick tick

Auction Results Sydney, NSW - Latest Weekend Results

 

Domain is reporting 70% clearance rate for Sydney this 21st October . That's actually very good and probably best figure for the months.

The thing it's always the same. So when the data set is obtained the same way you can use the 70% as Datum and make assumptions when above or below.

 

Yep verified now... 63%.

The bad news and price declines continue to roll out...

Auction Results Sydney, NSW - Latest Weekend Results

 

Can I ask a question if the clearance rate was 95% would you assume market is doing well?

So let's assume your answer is yes.

So of the clearance rate is 65% you can make good judgement as to the condition of the market. If you look at clearance rates throughout many years say, 5 if this is your cup. you see what clearance rates are showing about market as you can see from your feet on ground as to whats happening and than compare to what the. Media is reporting.

To me 70% is a relatively balanced market maybe slightly in sellers favour.

Reported 60% and below is a buyers market with much room for negotiation.

 

That's a NSW result ps it's 64%

Domain reporting Sydney @70%

 

They are a meaningful leading indicator...

That means they generally lead prices by 3-6months...

Therefore as they have been dropping for 12 months, and prices have been dropping by 6months...

History shows we can expect at least 6 more months of Sydney prices dropping.

 

Domain's business model wouldn't be heavily exposed to strong Sydney market would it now

 

No less than RE.

But if you are going to comment be truthfull
SYDNEY CLEARANCE RATE AT THE MOMENT IS
70% this weekend.

There is no Conspiracy mate RE result is for the whole state.

As you can see Balina is closer TO Gold Coast than Sydney but hey let's not let the truth get in the way of your agenda.

 

The final figure for last week was even lower at 61%. This week's final figure could well be in the 50s. Although for NSW as a whole rather than just Sydney, realestate.com.au is a bit more credible than Domainfax's version which claims 70% this weekend, based on little more than half the auctions and ignoring 50-odd withdrawals which are mostly not pass-ins because nobody turned up to start the auction in the first place...
In strict terms (understood as "sold through bidding at auction") the true rate has been between 40 and 50% for a long time and is rapidly heading into the 30s.

 

Real Estate figure is NSW64%
Domain figures are Sydney 70%

Is it that hard to understand? It's not a conspiracy

Brisbane is in the 40s

 

The points made in my message seem to have eluded you.
Judging by your spirited defence of the Domain's claim of 70% sprayed all over various threads tonight, you must be planning to sell in Sydney. Doesn't the fact that nearly half of this weekend's auctions are excluded from the figure, the possibility that this is because RE agents don't like reporting auction flops, and the reluctance of Domain to publish more credible figures once most results are in (in contrast to Real Estate) give you some pause for thought?

 

Ouch - elusive Sydney dreams just got schooled

 

Sydney is cooling quickly.

In some places like Vaucluse, Drummoyne, Russell Lea according Corelogic have had discounts of up to 25, 15, and 14% respectively. These large numbers in the $2m plus suburbs.

Even places like Wentworthville and Girraween are take 8-10% drops.

Why...this is a normal part of the cycle. Also borrowers have hot their ceiling due to new APRA regulations. This will factor into the market...it takes a while for vendors to adjust...some may not sell...some will have to sell at all costs. The BOOM is well and truly over.

What will be interesting is to see what the Chinese dominated markets like Chatswood, Epping, Eastwood, North Ryde will do. I suspect there could be 20% drops......as they move money out and move to better pastures......

There are some very smug people who have invested in these markets and bought well at 700k...and they are now sitting on $1.8m properties....these places are likely to come back down to 1.3-1.4% quite easily.....time will tell....but I think 2019 will be an excellent time to pick up bargains in Sydney..both houses and apartments.

 

Actually, realestate.com.au has upgraded their clearance figure from 64 to 66% this morning, probably reflecting late reports. With those still unreported likely to be more negative, a downward revision later in the week is possible though. Domain, of course, don't bother to update their speculative Saurday headline figure as more reliable evidence comes in.

 

just to show how the reported auction clearance rate becomes less and less reliable...

see that percentage Reported compared to Listed:

Apr 2017: 71%
May 2017: 67%
Jun 2017: 66%
Jul 2017: 63%-74% (higher number where better clearance rate)
Aug 2017: 65%
Sep 2017: 64%
Oct 2017: 61%

See the trend?

Yesterday: 55%

it's obvious they (or agencies, or both) cook the data before release, so they can show 70% clearance rate even when there are 5 sold properties out of 1000 listed - they just need to make 993 non-reported.

the good example is to compare yesterday auction to auction on 29/04/2017:

663 vs 653 listed properties
70% vs 71% clearance rate

... but 295 sold properties vs 399 in April.

 

I find late Monday afternoon figures on Domain fluctuate. Not all the time but I have seen it.

66% NSW rate is fairly consistent In the last 6 weeks.

Down from the high of 2016.

Time for Vic to shine for a while. I'm sure people trying to get into the market In Sydney will be over the moon at a more reasonable market.

 

Trend clearly down over past 6 months which is very bearish for Sydney prices to go up anytime soon.

An INCONVENIENT TRUTH for many.

 

Yawn! Just a part of the cycle. Move along now, nothing new to see.

 

How long do you expect the downturn in prices and clearance rates to last?

History shows clearance rates lead prices by about 6 months so I wont expect prices to recover until mid 2018...

 

don't forget the property cycle is an observation of historical prices, not the physics/economic rule to predict the future / interpret the present, so you technically can't say "we're in cycle". There are many examples when cycles are stopped at some point and never repeated again.