NSW Sydney prices still falling...

Parts of Sydney definitely still have over supply problems. Inner ring suburbs don't have an over supply problem, in general.

Where there is over supply, how long do you see this lasting? This will determine if now is the right time to buy.

 

Oversupply generally across new apartments in Sydney is meant to slow by end of 2019...

New construction & development almost stopped completely about 12 months.

The big developers (Meriton) etc are actively holding back stock to maintain values and not flood the market. With overall sales volumes lower it seems this trend is present among individual property owners who are holding back sales for better market conditions....

It’s a bit like a Mexican stand off... we will know by end of year I expect whether prices will continue falling or have a nice safe landing...as long as China doesn’t sneeze and Trump keeps the global growth party going hopefully it’s the latter.

 

YIP mobile

Listings 30% down from peak now..

 

I agree this is much more an outer suburb thing, though I think the inner city does have too many apartments. In Ireland we saw people definitely chose inner city over outer suburbia in terms of oversupplied areas, though, so inner city apartments could still do much better.

I think one thing people forget about headlines like "50% crash" is it's not uniform. Some of those outer city estates fell quite literally 100%, where a lot of inner city areas retraced much, much less or held onto their value and recovered more quickly.

It was a trash crash in Ireland. Shoddy built flats and townhouses in the sticks, you couldn't give away. Good homes in popular areas still had plenty of buyers.

 

Cherry picking part month data, ‘asking prices’, Queens Birthday?

That is some gymnastics there, matey.

Look, I’ve no doubt Sydney will recover welI. But the talk is premature at best right now

 

Indeed

 

@highlighter , here's a challenge for you! Try posting once without mentioning Ireland lol

 

Chalk and cheese since pre election. Strongest prices I've seen for a good couple of years.

For the good properties that is. Auction attendance is up, a lot more registered bidders and prices that are hard to believe.

Some of the examples have already been posted on PC and discussed.

 

Agree. I never understood why Ireland was in every single post like it is the canary in the coal
Mine for every developed western market... It’s a small economy on the edge of the world. It lacks the immigration and resource drivers we have . The Asians also don’t care much for Ireland. Being part of EU meant their fiscal, monetary policy and currency was much less flexible. Australia has been wealthy and stable for Decades it’s a top 10 economy ...

I think Australia and the West face prolonged stagnation while Asia catches up/ rebalances ... but to collapse the same way that irrelevant backwaters like Ireland or Spain or Portugal did is just ridiculous.

 

Totally agree.

What I have seen in my experience, is that a lot of my clients over the last year were cash purchasers.

The narrative has been that the market fell because no one could get finance, and this is true. But I think that there was also a lot of money on the side lines from cash buyers waiting for a signal that the bottom was in. And a few weeks ago, they got it.

 

Right because were unique.
Australian is very quickly using up its options to seriously stimulate the economy.
The levers for big drops in interest rates have disappeared. In fact there are almost completely exhausted.
We have got the lowest rates in living memory for most Australians yet the economy has some seroius underlying issues which many dont want to deal with.
Trying to cut costs just digs a bigger hole for many businesses, as labour costs are a huge part of that.
Tony Abbot told us years ago it was the carbon tax , then it was something else and so on , and on we go.
And for those that dont want to learn from other countries like Ireland that thought they were in for a soft landing, then world events caught up with them and the rest is history.
Were doing exactly the same with the recent cut and possibly more IR cuts for no real gain and then talk of QE or helicopters flying around droping bags of money everywhere.
It leaves nothing in the tank for when things really go wrong, and were making the numbers look good by creating lots of casual and part time work , helped along by immigration.

 

I think since the GFC and Lehman Brothers went under the whole theory now is throw everything you have as early as possible rather than waiting until the situation deteriorates into chaos. I.e. they would rather not have things go wrong instead of holding off as long as possible. In the event things kept getting worse i'd assume they'll just keep scaling up their stimulus either that be negative rates and/or quantitive easing.

 

Hanging out for the old country...

 

I'm Irish if that explains a lot. Been in Australia for most of my working life, though. Left during the recession.

 

Unfortunately the RBA has been going down that path since about 2013 and so far have droped rates by about a whopping 350 ponts.
And what does it have to show for it, absolutely nothing.
There trying to sort out one problem with virtually both hands tied behind there back , and are trying to solve a problem without dealing with the actual cause .
If you have a patient seriously losing blood just pumping more blood into him isnt going to solve his problem .
You also have to fix the wound from hemorrhaging blood.
And the current problem isnt going to be fixed if IR rates drop again.
For the same reason that none of the others really worked.

 

Thoughts on 4 denison Rozelle?

 

Completely agree with you. We r just few months / not many years away from collapsing. Its not too far away. Too much relining on property for Sydney economy.

Sydney will collapse soon. I would put more money in US.

 

Tbh not familiar with Rozelle.

Based on the pics and the price seems like it was a good buy!?

Your thoughts? Or why do you ask about this one specifically?

 

If the economy and property prices keep falling, the govt and banks might have to get creative to restart things. How long till the return of 105% loans?