NSW Sydney Price Correction 2019 - post examples

I do admire your optimism. But that Gretzky quote is largely the same as ‘the trend is your friend’....

In both cases while the pace of price falls may have slowed to negative 7-8% annually instead of 12% annually, the trend and puck are still going down at the moment.

 

I I'm looking forward to 12 months time to see John is correct about buying now. I think things will fall by about 8% over the next 12mths. That's my best guess atm

 

John was saying buy even mid last year.....

Sorry John, just facts nothing else

 

Or May be others are not buying coz they can see further falls coming.....

I think one of the biggest difference even if prices start to flat line by end of this year is the long term view....I doubt that we will see another crazy boom for another 10 years or more....

So with hardly any appreciation projections over 3-5 years, the safest bet is to wait till we see good two quarters of no falls....So far ever Qtr we are seeing 2.5-3% falls in Sydney (actual data)....Who doesn't want to pay another 50K less simply by waiting another 6 months...Worse you end up paying the same price in Dec to what you will pay now....

 

Partly correct, but I didn't say it would bottom last year. My year end report said that the bottom would be in by around September 2019, so best to hold me to that assertion.

It's not always about picking bottoms, and part of my enthusiasm is an acknowledgement that no one really knows when these bottoms occur. My statements erring on the side of buying now (which is true), is not necessarily me saying the market can't fall further: it's about acknowledging (a) thinking you know when, and waiting for market troughs, is hubris; and (b) "the Sydney market" isn't just the hills district. There are lots of places in Sydney where now is too early, and other parts where it is a good time to buy.

I would just add: it is smarter to try to emerge from this downturn with say 3 properties at really good prices, rather than one property at the exact bottom. Not everyone is as obsessed about picking the exact bottom, and that is not the only reason to buy. Some people have real estate goals completely independent of when the market tops and bottoms.

 

Housing downturn almost over?
Discounting on Sydney properties at highest level in years, with price drops biggest on the..

According to CL data, Lane Cove dropped further -7.4% for houses and -5.4% for units since that post. You can say that something was at bottom ONLY retrospectively.

 

Quite right.

 

If you do the number with negative gear gone and CGT concession reduce
there is VERY little incentive to invest in the properties market, the return will ****, the head aches will be high and the cost keep rising.

Unless you have no other options Investing in properties going to be a very low return asset for a long time to come.

best thing to do with properties in this situation is own your own home and upgrade to bigger home and invest the spare money in other assets like shares or run a business or partnership in a business

 

The house gives a little snapshot of Castle Cove (lower demographic suburb). The current owner has picked it up for little more than 20% above the 2003 price. A bit of a GFC boom price paid in 2011 though up 31% on it's previous sale.

 

Can we get back to posting discounts per the threads title?

Rather than this theoretical debate going back and forth. Maybe that should happen in another thread!

 

Nothing theoretical in what I have posted - 3 like for like sales of the same property over a period which contained 2 boom/bust cycles.

The last two sales were at the end of each cycle.

 

Well that’s based on current prices... if prices continue dropping at 12% a year sure enough property will look attractive again in time...

 

You may be right but didn't you say in 2012 that house prices were “chronically weak” and “overvalued”, and potentially headed for “a sharp fall”?

Australia's chronically weak house prices: Is the crash upon us or a long-term flat trend?: Shane Oliver

 

that was back when china's economy took a dip and caused some ripples here. They then did a big stimulus and the $$ started rolling in for us again.

 

This seems like a real bargain...walk to the mall, new station etc

domain auction results report sale price of $1.18m.

(Surely that’s not just because it backs on to the tennis courts of the high school ...?)

11 Coonardoo Place, Castle Hill NSW 2154 - House For Sale | Domain

 

May because no ensuite, odd shaped block and 3 BR(most houses in Castle hill hill are 4BR)
Still a good buy considering its renovated, close to amenities, school and train station

 

Thanks... I’ll copy below my conclusion... obviously the continued rate cuts added such massive fuel in the ensuing years... what’s going to add the fuel now??

“Bottom line – in the very short term house prices could fall a bit further as economic uncertainty continues to impact, but providing Europe doesn’t plunge China and the world into a renewed recession, falling mortgage rates are likely to drive a cyclical recovery in the housing market from later this year/early next.”

 

"Back on topic:

50A Bridge Street, Lane Cove, NSW 2066

Sold for 1440 at the peak, Jun 2017, 5 bidders at the time. Back on the market and when I talked to agent, vendor would be happy with 1.0 - 1.1 depending on contract conditions. Auction obviously failed, no bidders registered.

IMHO given the shape of the block, bush protection zone in a back, gum tree in a front, I can't even put a price on it at which it will clear. It seems like a perfect example of bubble insanity."

$1,180,000Sold on 18 Jan 2019

50A Bridge Street, Lane Cove, NSW 2066

Has anyone here started buying/ looking to buy in current market? If so where do you currently see value?

 

I think it is sitting on busy road, considering the price and land size it may be a good bite. What experienced people in the area says?

 

I know that spot very well. It is a highly impaired spot, amongst a patch of properties that sell frequently. It's not just that it is on a busy road - it is on the dog leg corner of a busy road (headlights into the living room etc). 10% off 2017 highs isn't so bad. But this property isn't a barometer of anything that is happening in the Lane Cove area. Better to gauge sentiment on a more generic dwelling.

On a more controversial topic: the RBA all but announced it would cut rates in June, and APRA look to be adjusting the assessment rate.

Anyone else prepared to call that we are at or approaching the bottom in Sydney?