NSW Sydney Price Correction 2019 - post examples

Discussion in 'Property Analysis' started by Charch, 1st Jan, 2019.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jun, 2017
    Posts:
    90
    Location:
    sydney
    What will you say if they asked your advise as a buyers agent? you will work for your customer's interest. what everyone want is long term relationship with people like you. we don't want to loose 50K in a purchase immediately and lost forever. If you have the guts, you need to tell your clients in your best judgement. I think, why people come to you is get the help to get the right property and successful in their purchase. If they make profit, then you are a successful professional. Else you are one of another xx. Choose what you want. its your choice.


    good point mate. Thats eyewatering sale for your client John. what do you say Mr. John...




    I doubt now John. If I am ur client, I won't.
     
  2. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,568
    Location:
    Back in Canberra!
  3. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

    Joined:
    25th May, 2018
    Posts:
    2,430
    Location:
    Sydney
    The property we bought is two stories, as opposed to three or more - so more land content. it is quite large as well, and it is also in a more expensive patch of that suburb (steep discount on the north side of the train station).

    Rent is $500 pw, so at $630k that is around 4.2% yield - compared to 3.85% for the suburb. My guess is that my estimate of current price is the most accurate, but I am sure we can quibble.
     
  4. gary176

    gary176 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Dec, 2015
    Posts:
    104
    Location:
    Sydney
    It’s not what u think it’s worth... u missing the point again...

    In my view, my property is worth 1m but someone is only willing to pay 800k... what’s the point...

    Also I think other users have pointed out the recent sales and seems to me u r overly optimistic on what u might get....

    U mentioned the buyers of this property are happy with the purchase.... Guess what they don’t have a choice.....

    I understand that this being ur area, you are doing ur best to keep people hopes high.... but u simply can’t disregard the data out there...

    There are further falls coming and now is not the time to go out and splash cash...
     
  5. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

    Joined:
    25th May, 2018
    Posts:
    2,430
    Location:
    Sydney
    Well, I've laid out some reasons above, including real yield data plus some local factors, why I disagree. I'm pretty sure I get your point, I just disagree. Ahh, anonymous forums.
     
  6. gary176

    gary176 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Dec, 2015
    Posts:
    104
    Location:
    Sydney
    I so wish property prices were driven by reasoning....
    I am sure we wouldn’t have had the 70% growth since 2012/13....
    But hey... good luck to ppl who wants to keep buying....I just don’t like to hear they cry if property prices go further down....
    It’s not anyone’s fault... it’s their own...
     
  7. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
  8. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yes that article is spot on....every couple of days I hear people moving away from Sydney...they are prepared to give up 200k plus salaries and even drop to 50% ....they are increasingly moving to Brisbane and Melbourne/Geelong as there is a perception the quality of life and housing affordability is better.
     
  9. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    11th Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    520
    Location:
    Sydney
    One way it could be looked at is people who can’t really afford Sydney are moving out for a quick improvement to their financial situation, IF they are being replaced by people that can afford to live in Sydney does this not make the market stronger long term.
     
    Cia likes this.
  10. euro73

    euro73 Well-Known Member Business Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    6,129
    Location:
    The beautiful Hills District, Sydney Australia
    Screen Shot 2018-08-12 at 3.49.21 pm.png

    dual oranges .jpg
     
    David_SYD likes this.
  11. Dean Collins

    Dean Collins Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Feb, 2016
    Posts:
    982
    Location:
    New York
    Good. We need more #Tier2Cities and we need them now. Until its just as cool to live in Nowra, Orange, Port Macquarie as it is Sydney, Australian housing=expensive.
     
  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yeah but it takes time.....Geelong followed by Newcastle are growing quickly...
     
    Dean Collins likes this.
  13. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    4,521
    Location:
    Sydney
    I think that they will still lose money on this property over the next few years remind me to take a look in a couple of years time at this address.
    I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out at low fires depending on the sort of bargain it was at purchase. If it was bought below market value may be they won't lose so much.

    but as you pointed out people buy property for all sorts of different reasons are different times.
     
  14. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    4,521
    Location:
    Sydney
    I see Shane Oliver is saying Sydney as halfway through at 14% so that means he's thinking about a 30% total drop it's interesting how the mainstream economists have increase the amount they are prepared to say that Sydney will drop some of them were talking 10 to 20 at the start of this now thirties being said and that is by people who have no interest in property going down given that their organisations make a lot of money from property going up. So yeah the whole 40% thing is totally possible even when that was considered doomsday and extreme and a radical view not long ago
     
  15. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    4,521
    Location:
    Sydney
    10% is a low forecast in my opinion I'm thinking 15 at least we haven't even seen the usual stage of the cycle when people start panicking and leaving. at the moment things haven't really sank in. Wait until a few years time when people start to get the perception that property is a terrible investment and you start to see some really low prices I just don't think we've seen anywhere near the doom and gloom that we're going to see even though the media reports are overall fairly negative we just haven't seen that really scared sentiment come out yet
     
    Dean Collins likes this.
  16. Kid hustlr

    Kid hustlr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    16th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    86
    Location:
    Sydney
    I just thought I'd re-affirm this post several months on. I am still looking for a PPOR in the lower north shore.

    There is is still interest in this market (largely first or second time home buyers with parents help or downsizers) and to me prices appear to have flatlined. The top end of the market I am not exposed to and my knowledge tells me apartments are still sliding they are definitely slow to move. Decent enough homes around the median in the nice parts of suburbs still have strong interest (assuming not a ridiculous asking price) whereas homes with questionable fundamentals (battle axe, busy road, slopy block) are definitely seeing price declines.

    I stand by my view of house prices to flatline in these areas for a number of years from this point on. Apartment possibly slightly more falls to go.

    Noting the above, conceptually it's hard to get my head around how comfortable people are purchasing properties/homes at 2-2.5% net yields however again, the majority of these buyers are not investors but rather PPOR buyers trying to set up / re-establish their lives. 'Investment' style stock appears to still be on the slide and this is likely why.

    just my 2c
     
    Dean Collins likes this.
  17. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia
  18. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jun, 2017
    Posts:
    90
    Location:
    sydney
    Last edited: 14th Apr, 2019
    noviceInvestor1 likes this.
  19. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,565
    Location:
    On a Capital and Income Growth Safari
  20. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    2,304
    Location:
    Democratic People's Republic of Australia