Sydney outer ring vs inner suburbs

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by DowntownBlock, 12th Oct, 2017.

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Where will prices HOLD UP best in Sydney

  1. Outer Suburbs (10km+)

    27.5%
  2. Inner Suburbs (within 10km)

    40.0%
  3. No idea / don't care

    32.5%
  1. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Have you tried picking a specific suburb.
    Have a look at say Stratfield look at last year's growth and say a suburb like Lurnea. One had growth and had none. You will notice one had double digit growth one didn't but fundamentally one has a Median price of 2 million 14%yoy growth and other 695k median 9%yoy growth. Which suburb do you think will have affordability issues? Which do you think may have higher impact from ARPAs restricted on lending?

    You talk about Sydney in rings and cutting and pasting data. You also talk about only buying if you had a gun to your head. This means your so smart as opposed to the 69% of people who purchased a place at auction last week.

    It seems you know of the market but you do not understand the market.

    It's easy to make money when everything is going up. It's hard when you have to use your brain.

    If you are convinced that Sydney is such a basket case. As your 5 other threads suggest stay out and invest into Hobart or some other city.
    Otherwise do some ground work speak to local agents look at suburb data and see Sydney market for more than headlines you keep pasting.
    I didn't even start on Billions of dollars being spent by state government on parts of Sydney.

    1) Where is you portfolio at the moment?
    2) What type of property is it commercial /residential?
    3)Duration of ownership?
    4) what cities do you own in? How many?
     
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  2. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Yes we know you purchased an IP near Liverpool recently at top of market at 3% yield and you are desperately hoping that it is a great purchase. Seriously, hope it goes well for you!

    This thread is about inner vs outer suburbs of Sydney and relative performance. Some people find analysis of macro factors interesting! As the enlightened poster above noted, probably due to speculative nature of prices recently that the decline has started in inner suburbs first.
     
  3. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Also plenty of quarterly data available of specific inner city suburbs. As you requested.

    North Sydney down 5%
    Edge cliff down 2%
    Birchgrove down 8%
    Surry hills down 3%
    Inner west down 3.9%
    Randwick down 4.4%

    At this rate its looking like a 10-15% annual drop for some suburbs by end of year.
     
  4. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    I guess I'm wondering who really believes that anyone holding property in Sydney after the huge growth it has had would be surprised if it pulls back a bit?

    There has been so much in the news, that unless you live under a rock, you would *surely* have to assume that things will cool. It has happened before. It will happen again.

    The concern for me is that Sydney is so expensive and one house there would buy two in Brisbane. And having so much tied up in one house with one lot of rent coming in has to be balanced against holding two houses in Brisbane with two lots of rent. That situation also is not new. I recall from my teenage years (and of course several times since then) when Sydney prices rose quickly enough to prompt people to sell up, move to Brisbane by the thousands each week to either buy two houses, or simply buy one and ditch the mortgage.

    I also recall in 1976 when my parents went overseas and told a UK family who wanted to sell up that they could buy two houses here for the value of their house in the UK. My grandfather's house had just been sold for $29k and within three or four months when they got back, the house would have sold for $50k. Back then, international calls were expensive, but my mother put in a call to that family and said "hold off selling until I can get some figures to you, things have almost doubled here since we spoke".

    I also recall maybe ten to 14 years ago a family who did a major renovation in Coorparoo, made a good profit, sold and rented in our street. They estimated houses were rising by $10k a month and they ended up renting for over 12 months whilst constantly missing out. I'd estimate the profit they made from the renovation was gone by the time they snagged the next place.

    If their estimate was true (and prices were absolutely rising very fast at the time), their waiting cost them $120k by the time they finally managed to buy again. They were often one of 10 or more contracts going in after an open house.

    So, anyone who has been watching this and participating in this for a while has seen prices stagnate, rise, flatten, drop, rise etc etc over many cycles.

    I'm not smart enough, or interested enough to get into the reasons for each time the market rises or falls. I just trust that ultimately, it will rise.

    I know some other countries have proven this theory wrong, so I'm not completely "head in sand", and we will likely move out of property into something else (shares?) but that is more to do with our land tax going through the roof and not wanting to buy elsewhere to help spread it around.
     
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  5. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Agree with you @wylie. I personally don't care if Sydney property prices goes down 10% from the peak after having gone up around 75% - 100% over the past 5 or so years. It will give the people who have been waiting for a drop a chance to buy - but of course they would have been better off buying a few years ago, but some people were thinking it was just too hard.

    Agree that over the long term properties go up.

    And I had a friend who sold out around 2013 to upgrade - they got a good price for their inner west unit at that time, they were planning to upgrade because they had their first kid, but months later when they tried to buy their money couldn't buy the same even in Parramatta which is much further west. So in this scenario of a rising market, always lock in the purchase before selling....
     
  6. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    What about in a declining market?

    Sell before buying?
     
  7. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Yep. In a declining market sell first, because you don't know how much you'll get, plus it could take months before getting a good offer. You don't want to stress yourself out committing to buy something then if you don't have a buyer, finding a way to fund multiple properties if you're just planning to do a swap. Whereas in a rising market in a place like Sydney, selling is a piece of cake.
    My sister sold in 2014 and her townhouse got over 20 offers at the first open. Extremely hot market, no trouble to sell. But they bought their upgrade (new PPOR) in the cold market of 2012, but they could hold both for a while since their townhouse was already paid off. New PPOR has gone up about a million since purchase....
     
  8. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Yep so in Sydney, sell ASAP and wait for as long as possible to buy... could mean hundreds of thousands in savings...

    A year First class OS travel could pay for itself :)
     
  9. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    I think the outer ring will hold up better as it's cheaper.

    Lord knows how low the inner ring will go. It could get punched around the ring for all I know.
     
  10. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Randwick down? Where are you getting your information?
    Core logic seems accurate. Showing growth not a 4.4% decline.?

    YIP mobile

    Randwick Property Market, House Prices & Suburb Profile
     
  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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  12. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    @elusive Sydney dreams
    Plenty of information regarding specific suburbs dropping for you...

    So what is the yield on your Liverpool property? Is it over 2.5%?
     
  13. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    I hear the spike in orchy bottle sales out west is impacting the demand for Purple Gatorade in the inner ring :)
     
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  14. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Gatorade is too dang expensive for westies.
     
  15. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Voting has nearly closed and the inner city has it by 10% margin!
     
  16. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    mickyyyy likes this.

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