Sydney market’s frenzied day 1 response

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by standtall, 20th May, 2019.

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  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Sydney is another 13 base points up today. So no more declines and the trend is clearly upward now.
     
  2. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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  3. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    I've seen comments on FB and from an agent mate ppl already alot more optimistic
     
  4. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Oh no, down -0.06 today! End times is here again!
     
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  5. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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  6. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    Okay but the actual clearance rate is still very low. Sydney's was 62% which is higher than several months ago, but lower than some weeks we've seen during the Autumn bounce. Shane Oliver estimated a revised rate (after late reporting, as the negative results often take longer to trickle through) in the high 50s, and commented that this is still very low. It's much lower than the winter rate seen in the boom years (high 70s). Melbourne was considerably down on last week. It's been hovering in the low 60s. Was 60 this week. Revised will be in the 50s. There's nothing to suggest there's been an actual lift in activity. (So far)
     
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  7. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Around half a percentage higher since election night in total after some 600 days of continuous decline is a good sign.
     
  8. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    You can spin it whatever way you like but here are the facts:

    - Around half of percent increase on corelogic index in first 7 days of labor threat getting out of the way. This is purely on sentiment alone - none of the expected policy benefits have started flowing. Buyers still working with old pre-approvals.

    - Clearance is not what some people expected but number of unreported auctions just dropped which is a very good sign. Overall clearance numbers are now in line with(or slightly higher than) 2018 and considering real damage didn't start happening until Nov 18, we are back on pre-disaster confidence levels.

    - If the above doesnt convince you, just talk to your local agent and you will be instantly in the know of what's going on.

    Did you actually go to any open houses on Saturday?
     
  9. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    + 0.07 today. NEW BOOM!

    I kid, I kid.

    I do agree the recent developments will help to slow the decline. But lets not forget why they are loosening and cutting rates -- unemployment is rising and the economy is limp.
     
    Last edited: 27th May, 2019
  10. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Downturn has been on for 18 months or more.

    I bid on a house on Saturday. It passed in to me. Conveniently it is completely absent from Domain auction clearance results...
     
    Last edited: 27th May, 2019
  11. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Unreported auctions went up to a good 40% in last few weeks. There was a significant drop this week suggesting fewer agents felt the need to not report the results.

    Do you mind sharing the link to the property? (just out of curiosity)
     
  12. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, there is no way I would hand out my family's potential home address on an internet forum...

    Bayside, Melbourne though.
     
  13. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Yup nsw and vic economies have been quite reliant on the building/credit boom and big influx of foreign capital past few years.

    Now that those big taps are turned off, for sure there will be a hit to the economy. its up to the gov to step in to cushion the downturn.
     
  14. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough.

    How did you assess Sydney market activity from a Melbourne auction? :)
     
  15. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Where did I say I assessed Sydney market activity from a Melbourne auction?
     
  16. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    I presumed (probably because context of my post you replied to was Sydney).

    Speaking of a Melbourne, it doesn't seem to have been affected by election outcomes much.
     
  17. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Ahh, agents are saying much the same about green shoots down here. Time will tell i s'pose.
     
  18. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    We established last week we have rather different ideas on how the corelogic index works.

    The number of unreported auctions doesn't mean much. Neither does the clearance rate, really, or not on a week to week basis. Let's see what the trend does over spring.

    I didn't go to any open houses this weekend. Went camping.

    I'm really not trying to get into these arguments with you particularly, by the way. But I feel this whole thread is evidence of you drawing conclusions based on no real evidence. It's fine to be positive, just also be realistic. We need to wait till at least Spring, probably late Spring, to really know whether there'll be a turnaround.
     
  19. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    Unreported auctions doesn't mean much. It was a very low volume weekend last week due to the election, so low numbers were almost statistically insignificant. This weekend it's improved, but that's likely just a sign of better numbers overall. Last weekend also likely had low reporting due to, again, the election requiring staff to be out of the office more. This happens on busy weekends, like the grand finals etc. It means nothing.