NSW Sydney Market..where is it heading..a personal view..

Yep...I referred to them a buffalos.....as we speak this is happening....I think 2018-2019..will be very interesting for the Sydney real estate market...

 

That's why I noticed 'herd mentality' in that article, good timing.

 

Question....how recent is you data...as I have said data is usually about 3-4 months behind the times...are you going to ground to see what is happening at the coalface??

 

"Don't worry about a thing,
'Cause every little thing gonna be alright."
- legend sang that

 

Sure did...Robert Nesta Marley...RIP!

He sang that on the "herb"....

 

Next door just sold for 820k and it's the exact same house, except outside of it was in horrible condition.. In saying that, paying 499k for that in 2009 is a rip considering mine is a 4 bedder on bigger land for 615k purchased 6 years later... In saying that, if you bought that and re-sold it you'd have made 320k on an IP in 6 years, which is pretty good! If that aint good then you're hard to please haha I've been going to open homes to see who's buying these re-sold houses for $1m, and a few of them have been cashed up oldies/retirees..

Many people believe the ponds will take a hit, including Sash, and I think it'll come back a bit, as will the rest of Sydney.. The mortgages in the new estates now will be worse than the ponds.. Hard to find a H&L package under 650k anywhere anymore so either people have a lot of money or are stretching to the max..That's the price most of my friends paid at the ponds a couple years back.. The mega mcmansions may struggle though.. Interesting they aren't selling as well there either..

How do we feel about Wentworthville houses for 900k renting at 450/week,.. Or blacktown, sevo and lalor park selling for 650k and renting 380/week? what about Northmead at 800k renting for 420/week? or Westmead 950k for 450/week rent?

IMO the parts of Northwest that'll take the biggest hit will be rouse hill and kellyville apartments and townhouses...900k for very little rent return (if you wanna rent them out).. Rate rises will affect anyone with a loan of 600k+ so a crapload of Sydney may be in trouble..Speaking to a lady who sold off the land at the ponds for landcom, she told me there was less than 5% first home buyers who bought there.. How do we find this info out?

There will be a lot of places getting hit when the rate rises to 7% not just your new, shiny estates . If we do get to 7% in Sydney in the next 5 years I think there will be some good buying.. Until then, nobody is going to default or be forced to sell..It'll slow down.. Our economy is quite slow atm so nothing forcing rates to go up any time soon..

 

Follow the yield....that says it all....

 

Seriously there is soooo much speculative buying in Sydney and those speculators will cop it..

 

That looked odd so I checked stats from realestate.com.

Median price of a 4 BR = 816.5 K
Median rent of a 4 BR = 578 p/w

Please try to be factually correct when you make a statement like that.

 

Wasn't a complete analysis more so what I seen when I had a quick look on realestate.com for houses for sale and rental..

Either way, that's a poor yield!

 

I believed majority of those people who bought houses with 2-3% yields are not an investor. Most investor in Sydney will purchase something more like unit with 4.5-4.8% yield.

 

I really must stop paying attention to onthehouse.com.au estimates, they skew my view too much That ponds one I linked is estimated at 524 - 590 (Hence my prior posted opinion).

 

Yeah onthehouse sucks.. My parents PPOR is valued at 900k by their bank and onthehouse has it at 550k.

 

As Be Developer and myself are saying....get your hands dirty and do the ground work physically...

 

Just go into onthehouse and reset the value range,if they control the name on the title..

 

Specufestor,
Then what happens after the two years ?

I reckon that Sydney Median price will be down / crashing a little approximately 20-30% of the current price maximum in "some" areas that mentioned above where investor owned property numbers is way more than 50%

 

May be as the premium subscriber, OnTheHouse can actually gives you some more accurate indication rather than estimation ?

 

According to this posting clock, it will be heading down:

https://propertychat.com.au/community/threads/june-2015-property-clock.457/

 

I think all one needs is a rate bill report,and you can update the numbers,and some of the values in that site can be a bit of a equity mismatch,one property we have went up in value in that site by 200k,just before a real estate agent that rented the place out up the road put the property on the market,quickest 200k we ever made..

 

Its not necessarily heading down, it could stay at peak of market for who knows how long.