Sydney house prices surge, now back above $1 million: Domain Group

The world journalists live in - it's either complete gloom or a sudden boom.

http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-house-prices-surge-now-back-above-1-million-domain-group-20160720-gq8qlb/

 

The higher it goes the lower it'll fall. It just takes time.

 

How much did it fall after the last boom?

 

This time will be different though. The big one is upon us. People will be mailing their keys back to the banks.


Oh hang on we have recourse lending. Oh that's right this is Australia.

 

Yep...the difference is they will take the clothes off your back also...and leave you in borrowing wilderness for 7 years if not longer...

 

Back in 2007-8, I really believed that and it kept me out of the market for couple of years.

Now the market will need to crash atleast 70-80% to send me back to my origional equity levels. A 30% decline and I will still be a lot better off than those who waited on the sidelines.

If the market falls 30%, most people will lose their jobs first before I lose my investments. The chances of either happening are very slim.

Remember, in the GFC crash, most popular US shares fell by 90% while US real estate market fell by less than 30%. Those shares haven't yet recovered any of the dramatic fall but real estate market has not recovered but it's thriving again.

 

It is surprising that people think Sydney hasn't peaked/over-valued already. Good for people who got in early but now too late, me thinks.

 

Whilst Sydney is the economic powerhouse of Australia in terms of sheer volume of business it produces, Sydney's median sales price isn't the only metric with which to measure all Australian real estate...

It somewhat aggregates me that Domain, a player with really only strong usage in Sydney and to a lesser degree Melbourne; get so many headlines with their Sydney median numbers. I guess being owned by Fairfax ensures that Domain content syndicates widely in Sydney and Melbourne.

Why can't Domain at least do a wrap up of all the state capital markets to provide better balance to median house price stories?

 

Because Sydney is the only market in Real Estate....


Meanwhile in Melbourne

 

Yes people typically do everything to stay off bankruptcy here. It's not a simple reset.

I can't see property declining more than 20% over a 2-3 year period.

With this in mind my investments will be fine.

 

Where?

 

What recourse do the banks have for chasing down foreign investors who are buying a significant number of homes in Australia?

 

I really wonder how people are getting millions to buy the properties in Sydney. For ordinary guys like us, buying a decent house in Sydney is nothing but a dream. Seems Regional towns are only places where we can buy a good house.

 

complete gloom or sudden boom...that is typical of mainstream media. the reality is almost always in between but reality doesn't sell news...only the extremes sell news

 

"If it bleeds, it leads"

 

Do foreign investors get loans from Australian banks or do they fully pay off the house when they buy it?

 

50%LVRs for a start. Then the legal system.

Don't forget for many it's not their first rodeo.

Properties in more than one states at different stages of the cycle with low LVRs.

 

The subject of the thread.

 

Sydney is not 1 market... East behaves very differently to the West and South West. Name a suburb. Also, I know areas South West, West, Canterbury Bankstown, Parramatta region got hit after 2004, very much considered the mortgage belt, whereas "better" areas were affected very differently post 2004. I think a lot of those cheaper areas have become more mature though, vast majority of owners will have small loans when compared to the value of their homes.

In the next downturn they'll weather the conditions much better. Sydney hasn't seen any mass unemployment in recent history, and I think we'll be the last place in Australia affected by unemployment. Mass unemployment is probably our biggest risk which would lead to Sydney becoming undesirable and prices dropping, along with not being a place people want to migrate to. If Sydney suffers large unemployment, I think the whole of Australia will be in deep trouble, and we'll have bigger problems. I just don't see either factor of large unemployment and a slowdown in migration coming into the equation soon.

 

Thanks for the lesson.