Sydney house prices crash

Yes that's a strategy some may take. I'm just saying why they are cheaper

 

Steve Keen: I was wrong on Australian house prices

 

Interesting read.

Basically " its the incompetence of others ( Government / RBA ) that stopped the fall , which should have happened if they'd been sensible , and then I would have been right , But now they're going to have a bigger problem because the position is even worse now ( because of their incompetence ) , which I'll tell you about next article "

W..anker then , w..anker now .....

Cliff

 

I don't think Sydney will crash just yet. Units many will drop a bit and houses level off.

The action for the next 3-5 years will now move to Brisbane and Gold Coast. It's a very predictable cycle ...

 

Good article.

 

yea, i too think so. Sydney wont crash given its fundamentals still strong. Some areas in Sydney will experience bigger corrections than others.
It already has moved to SEQ..and will continue to intensify a bit more, but not to the extent of sydney/mel back in the day. ie you wont see 80-100sqm unliveable dumps in seq going for 1.5mil in 2 seconds flat like it did in sydney and glen waverley back in their time in the sun..

 

@JDP1 It is started to happening here in Park Ridge QLD 4125 mate, look at these lot size, most of them they are under 450 sq Meter. Mine is on lot 60 with just 250 sq Meter, bought last year for $300k mark, it has now increased to be higher than $300k just a few months after I handed in my deposit. It is the norm and the way of the future.



Not many people wants to sell it just now bacause the potential of appreciating further

Proof: Park Ridge, QLD 4125 Auction Results & Sold Property Prices in Park Ridge, QLD 4125 with 3+ bedrooms (pg 1)

Source: https://www.frasersproperty.com.au/...idential/QLD/The Rise/The Rise Stage Plan.pdf

 

I'm willing to give a bit of time to old Steve and other people who discuss economics.

It's a hard task - make a prediction today and it's based on what you know today. Everyone can see the housing market is slowing in Australia right now and in some spots falling. Apartments are dropping in Melb CBD.

So a prediction - apartment prices are going to continue falling!

Not unreasonable to say... but then the Victorian Government bring in a stamp duty exemption for first home buyers on apartments within the CBD and suddenly I look the fool and people rip me apart for it.

I think Keen's right on some of what he says. If Rudd hadn't hit the stimulus button back in the GFC I think Keen would have been right on the money... but then things changed and he looks the fool.

He's not wrong on the private debt levels being much higher. We're heading for the highest in the world (did we hit the top yet? Can't remember).

 

Due to mass over supply, not from falling demand.

 

Thought it was both?

Aren't the APRA changes reducing the number of borrowers as lending criteria tightens?

 

is Sydney decoupling from the rest of Austrlia?

The ultra-high-net-worth crowd have accepted Sydney property is worth travelling to.

 

Mass oversupply comes from falling demand.

 

I doubt it. Part is economic strength etc. Yes. But part of it ( which the article does not mention) is also cultural.
I dont think the culture of sydney is snobbish enough to be a london, dubai etc. Probably close ( money does that )..but not close enough. There is still a fairly strong cultural integration between sydney and the rest esp mel and (increasingly) bne +gc. However, its possible that those 3 in the future will be disassociated from the rest of the country. The concentration of wealth on the eastern seabord will likely do it..eventually.