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Sydney house prices crash

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by twobobsworth, 28th Jan, 2016.

  1. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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  2. Xenia

    Xenia Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Followed by Melbourne and Perth
    Markets are cyclic not lilear
    History repeats every single time.
     
  3. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    ......past three years, Sydney house prices are up 52.6 per cent. After that I can accept a 3% fall (if that is what actually happened).
     
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  4. MarkB

    MarkB Some guy on the internet Premium Member

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    From the linked article -

    [​IMG]

    I think it is somewhat unfortunate that Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson said "this is quite a sobering, startling result. The rollercoaster of house price growth Sydney has been on has clearly crashed."

    [emphasis added]
     
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  5. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    I'm waiting for property owners to sell, sell, sell.
     
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  6. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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  7. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    I just threw this together:

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. neK

    neK Well-Known Member

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    The reporter is Jennifer Duke, is that the same person as @Jennifer Duke on here?
     
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  9. Jennifer Duke

    Jennifer Duke Well-Known Member

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    Hi, yep sure is!
     
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  10. Jennifer Duke

    Jennifer Duke Well-Known Member

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    Personally won't call it a crash until we're seeing a reversal back to $figures seen three years ago prior to the boom.
     
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  11. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    I'll buy anyone's inner west, lower north short or eastern suburbs properties for 30% off today to save you the pain when the world collapses.

    PM me.

    ;)
     
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  12. neK

    neK Well-Known Member

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    Nice!
     
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  13. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    "If it bleeds, it leads."
     
  14. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    What is a 'crash' anyways?.. I do suspect that Sydney will be mellow for a while but crash in this context seems super melodramatic.
     
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Not sure whether this is a fallacy but generally property crash means 20% drop and calling a bear market shares, also 20%/
     
  16. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    @Jennifer Duke

    If you can start spruiking Brisbane as at the start of its boom, then that'd be great.

    Thanks in advance.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    3% drop is just an average, Syd west has I believe dropped 10%, I would pay more attention to selling prices, days on the market and specific areas, otherwise its pretty meaningless. Perhaps I am cynical in my old age... back to another coffee:) just my opinion.
     
  18. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Sydney has consistently proved me wrong in terms of housing prices. I have always thought the median house price/income ratio is unsustainable coupled with our record high debt ratios but who knows if Hong Kong can have a 19 factor house/income ratio maybe Sydney can too.

    Despite all this, I will still steer clear of SYD for a while although very happy to rent here :)
     
  19. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Having watched the Sydney boom upclose and personal over the last few years I have been quite unimpressed with Andrew Wilson's reporting and this is just another example .

    The reality is that every cycle there is a pull back at the top and the explanation is so simple .

    mid late last year , there were multiple people competing for most properties for sale in Sydney . as a result we had multiple properties selling " well over expectations " . now that's not happening so properties are now selling for expectations .

    In the share market it can be called a " blow off top "

    You can't have a peak without this happening , otherwise it would keep on going . It's a normal part of every market ,

    But , that doesn't sell a story .....

    Cliff
     
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  20. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    3% would be averaged to the whole market and is about right imo and is not a crash. A crash is significantly more than 3%.
    I predict a slight dip (of about 3%) then flat till the next cyclical upswing. The pain will not be in the 3% drop in itself solely ; it will be in the opportunity cost foregone with a long flat period following the 3%, in addition to the 3.
     
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