Sydney house prices crash

Or so SMH is reporting

Sydney house prices drop 3 per cent

 

Followed by Melbourne and Perth
Markets are cyclic not lilear
History repeats every single time.

 

......past three years, Sydney house prices are up 52.6 per cent. After that I can accept a 3% fall (if that is what actually happened).

 

From the linked article -



I think it is somewhat unfortunate that Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson said "this is quite a sobering, startling result. The rollercoaster of house price growth Sydney has been on has clearly crashed."

[emphasis added]

 

I'm waiting for property owners to sell, sell, sell.

 

I just threw this together:

 

The reporter is Jennifer Duke, is that the same person as @Jennifer Duke on here?

 

Hi, yep sure is!

 

Personally won't call it a crash until we're seeing a reversal back to $figures seen three years ago prior to the boom.

 

I'll buy anyone's inner west, lower north short or eastern suburbs properties for 30% off today to save you the pain when the world collapses.

PM me.

 

Nice!

 

"If it bleeds, it leads."

 

What is a 'crash' anyways?.. I do suspect that Sydney will be mellow for a while but crash in this context seems super melodramatic.

 

Not sure whether this is a fallacy but generally property crash means 20% drop and calling a bear market shares, also 20%/

 

@Jennifer Duke

If you can start spruiking Brisbane as at the start of its boom, then that'd be great.

Thanks in advance.

 

3% drop is just an average, Syd west has I believe dropped 10%, I would pay more attention to selling prices, days on the market and specific areas, otherwise its pretty meaningless. Perhaps I am cynical in my old age... back to another coffee just my opinion.

 

Sydney has consistently proved me wrong in terms of housing prices. I have always thought the median house price/income ratio is unsustainable coupled with our record high debt ratios but who knows if Hong Kong can have a 19 factor house/income ratio maybe Sydney can too.

Despite all this, I will still steer clear of SYD for a while although very happy to rent here

 

Having watched the Sydney boom upclose and personal over the last few years I have been quite unimpressed with Andrew Wilson's reporting and this is just another example .

The reality is that every cycle there is a pull back at the top and the explanation is so simple .

mid late last year , there were multiple people competing for most properties for sale in Sydney . as a result we had multiple properties selling " well over expectations " . now that's not happening so properties are now selling for expectations .

In the share market it can be called a " blow off top "

You can't have a peak without this happening , otherwise it would keep on going . It's a normal part of every market ,

But , that doesn't sell a story .....

Cliff

 

3% would be averaged to the whole market and is about right imo and is not a crash. A crash is significantly more than 3%.
I predict a slight dip (of about 3%) then flat till the next cyclical upswing. The pain will not be in the 3% drop in itself solely ; it will be in the opportunity cost foregone with a long flat period following the 3%, in addition to the 3.