Sydney home prices now falling $120,000 a year

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Pete Arendt, 24th Jan, 2019.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    So the reality is the price did fall..... nothing is bullet proof in a falling/flat market.

    If you don't believe me look at the last boom/bust cycle in Syd, blue chip got hammered.
     
  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Definetly prices fell. No crash in unit market in Bondi (yet).
     
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  3. Joseph Skewes

    Joseph Skewes Well-Known Member

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    If prices have fallen 12% at a median city-wide level that is always going to be made up of different % declines e.g. some areas and property types may have fallen 20% and others 5%.

    The price of that North Bondi unit is mind blowing to me. You could buy something similar (couple of streets back from our best suburban beaches & similar property type) in Adelaide for around 30-40% of that price. Sydney will always command a big premium over Adelaide, but that is still very stretched.
     
  4. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    In north bondi so far
    • 2b unit fell 13.4% from peak (1.35mn to 1.17 mn)
    • Houses fell 17.4% from peak (3.05 mn to 2.52 mn)
      you are right it has not fallen 25% yet (can we call that a crash?)
      but looks like north bondi has fallen more then Sydney's average falls


    upload_2019-2-4_14-20-20.png

    upload_2019-2-4_14-34-58.png


    North Bondi Investment Property Market Data
     
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  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Some good 'add value' deals if you know what to buy. I'm waiting 9-12 more months then jumping in.
     
  6. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Most cycles and the majority of RE in Australia's major cities don't 'bust'. They just correct to different extents. Being able to capitalize on good value is the trick. Also one person's bust is another person's super value steal.
     
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  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Yes but Adelaide is not Sydney and its not Bondi Beach. Doesn't matter if you like the area or hate it or think its too expensive. For the masses - the demand for Sydney and top areas in Sydney over Adelaide is miiiiiiiles apart. No comparison.
     
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  8. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Yes...12 or a bit more.....
     
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  9. Tonibell

    Tonibell Well-Known Member

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    For some really smart ones it was 48.
     
  10. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    48 ? Not for Syd.
     
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  11. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Pick one.
     
  12. Joseph Skewes

    Joseph Skewes Well-Known Member

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    As I said, Sydney will always command a big premium, but that doesn't mean Sydney can't get very overvalued compared with Adelaide (or other capitals)... as usual, I bring data :cool:

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Its not overvalued if people are still paying the aprox prices and demand is strong. I'll believe its 'overvalued' when Sydney homes prices fall back to Adelaide home prices. You'll be waiting a long time for that.
     
  14. Joseph Skewes

    Joseph Skewes Well-Known Member

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    Straw man argument. I never said Sydney would fall back to Adelaide prices, but the chart does show Sydney was/is overvalued relative to previous ratios against Adelaide. It could fall back to 1.5x Adelaide prices instead of the 2.5x it rose to (arguably when comparing like for like it was/is higher than that ratio).

    When prices have been falling, auction rates remain low, days on market are blowing out, people are paying less than prices a couple of years ago I don't know how you can say it wasn't overvalued (or even that it's not now). I guess housing at the top of any property bubble in history was not overvalued using your measure that there was strong demand and people were paying the prices...
     
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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    We'll have to agree to disagree mate.
     
  16. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

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  17. Speede

    Speede Well-Known Member

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    Who really cares about sh..itty bondi or north bondi...its not whole syd market.

    Prices are trending DOWN...
     
  18. Tattler

    Tattler Well-Known Member

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    Even though I live and love Sydney I would prefer a beach house in Adelaide than Bondi..... Way too many people.
     
  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't matter what you and I prefer, its what the masses want which creates demand .
     
  20. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    I think its the overvalued that is an issue.

    Lets look at it from a different view.

    What if 1.5X was cheap for Sydney and 2 or 2.5X is fair value?


    Its just how things are phrased that can make a difference in a conversation.

    Im not going to express my view on what the multiplier should be.

    I love Adelaide having Lived in Adelaide on and off and have a good client in Evanston so travel a fare bit. Glenelg is my favorite spot at the end of the tram line on the beach. Love the cafe life their in summer by the water.