Sydney home prices now falling $120,000 a year

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Pete Arendt, 24th Jan, 2019.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Sounds logical to me
    In similar scenario, no point buying when market is falling
     
  2. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    FYI - your location on your profile shows "U.S."

    The Y-man
     
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  3. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    If Sydney sees falls around the 20-30% mark and falling rents , do these other areas still look attractive ,many regional areas in NSW have done okay over the last few years for the simple fact that they looked attractive after Sydney saw really good price rises and the movement of people looking to buy their own home.
    If Sydney values and rents continue on going backwards, are people going to continue to migrate away from Sydney to Brisbane or the other regional cities or towns in search of more affordable housing.
    Its no secret that asset values are inflated when interest rates are low, and when you consider a mortgage will generally be over 25-30 years, its highly likely interest rates will go up over the next 10 years.
    The only reason they would stay super low would be if we were to get in serious economic trouble
     
    Last edited: 26th Jan, 2019
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  4. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Time will tell I guess.
    Its early days, we just don't know the full impact of the credit squeeze etc. Be interesting to see what happens to property markets at the end of 2019.
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    I think the major issue today in Australia is the credit squeeze.

    Will home buyers be able to soak up the supply in any market?? Investors are out due to current lending environment

    Until we see some changes in lending then I don't believe we will see markets improving. What we are seeing today and why markets have softened across the board. If you cant source finance you cant buy, more supply comes to market... its that simple.

    Does it mean investors should not buy property today? No idea? If they find good deals and are providing good returns then perhaps its a Yes?

    But for me personally I am out until I see some changes and market sentiment changes. At the moment market sentiment in Australia for property investing is negative, just adds another layer of risk.

    Also, for those that are buying, what and where are you buying that makes sense in terms of rental yield and potential growth.

    Another option in this market would be to add value, I am sure some investors are doing this. that will require another skill set completely and perhaps a niche market. My g/friend is doing this in Perth, but she sources all her product from China and this is the only way she is making the numbers work.

    MTR:)
     
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  6. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Yep, I moved back in Nov.

    Updated
     
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  7. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    'The longer I hold, the more I lose': FONGO takes hold of home sellers

    After 10 years investing in the property Andres Vargas has keenly felt the market's sharp turn in the last 18 months.

    He sold one house near Mt Druitt for a tidy profit last year and has now decided to sell his remaining Sydney investment in Green Valley, west of Liverpool.

    I got it valued at $619,000 by the bank when I was applying for my home loan a year and a half ago," Mr Vargas said. "I've now seen similar properties going up for sale for $540,000, so there is a clear 10 per cent drop there alone.

    "It's quite scary. The longer I hold onto it, the more I'm losing."


    Welcome to the world of FONGO (fear of not getting out) for property vendors, a market sapping phenomenon which has replaced the FOMO (fear of missing out) for buyers that had driven values upwards.
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Love this term FONGO
     
  9. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    AMP Economist Shane Oliver coined it. I like him, pretty even keeled analysis.
     
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  10. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    FONGO is originally meant "Fear Of Not Going Out". Much like FOMO, but without the anxiety of wondering if your friends care where you are.

    "I heard about that party, but I'm low on cash. I'm still gonna go because I don't want to sit at home tonight with a massive case of FONGO"
     
    Last edited: 3rd Feb, 2019
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  11. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    Nothing goes up forever
    Boom and bust are part of the cycle, that how wealth are transfered from the impatient and inexperience to the experience investors -:)
     
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  12. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Hey Dats, I just thought this was Western Sydney's idea of negative gearing ?

    And it wont take 10 years out there :)
     
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  13. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    No,

    I bet there are a few among us that have had to start over again, maybe a few times for some......

    Your choices and mind are what enable you to do things, believe the things you post and you will never have anything and always blame others for this, which is, your own mind.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 4th Feb, 2019
  14. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, pretty much, I do same......

    So investing should be facts and figures and planning based along with hard work, everyone else gets to run on emotion :)
     
  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    This one did just fine. Units in some places are holding up fine. That's why its always useless to lump broad stats to every single market and stock type in oz.

    3/155 Blair Street, North Bondi, NSW 2026
     
  16. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    These types of properties would make up single digits of the Sydney property market in terms of a percentage. Also if you scroll down, you will see that prior to that sale and the one before, the recent sales of 2 bedders in that area were all over $1 million so it could still represent a fall. I didn't check the listings in detail
     
  17. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

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    Nope. It was sold 590K in 2012. Unites in North Bondi almost doubled over 2012-2017 period, so expected peak price was in 1.1-1.2M range. Even not factoring in completed renovation that could be done between 2012-2019.

    As it was sold 950K, it is pretty much same drop (10-15%) as in many other areas.
     
  18. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That unit will never get 1.2m . Even in peak.
     
  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I'm sure its not peak price but no crash, that was my main point.


    Most units in the area seem to have come off from peak prices but no crash in this stock type and area yet . Holding their overall demand and value .
     
  20. Cimbom

    Cimbom Well-Known Member

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    You're arguing semantics