NSW Sydney Future Growth Areas

Found this interesting chart from Pete Wargent's blog.



Jobs creation results in housing demand and this chart explains very low vacancy rates on the central coast.

I think blue bars (1 year growth) are much more relevant. Note that these graphs represent the net increase in employed people in a region so read it like this:
1) A high increase is always good
2) A small increase or no increase is not necessarily bad as the area could already have high employment or nearly everyone employed
3) A negative number is bad and will hurt the property markets

Comments?

 

I like Peter's blogs

 

I've been bullish on Gosford & Central Coast and parked IPs there. With improved access to Sydney via M1 to M2 coming, government employment, revitalization of the city centre I don't believe we will have the same level of historical correction this cycle.

Also in today's news ....

Let's hype Gosford.

Regional towns are becoming the new inner city as house prices rocket

 

my mums thinking of moving to Gosford. lots of construction going on up there. she likes the idea of being close to beaches and not to far from Sydney. her townhouse in Fairlight is up for auction in a few weeks and she has to downsize due to GFC wiping out her super. hopefully all the talk about upgrading Gosford CBD turns into something real because currently its a bit of a hole.

 

Gosford has turned away millions of dollars in development money and thousands of jobs because a group of locals want a cultural centre instead of office blocks that could potentially house thousands of jobs and turn the area around. Those who want a cultural centre probably don't need jobs themselves as bulk of the city is housing commissions.

Current day Gosford is like Red Fern - things will eventually change and values will surge overnight.

 

Cheers for the link - note ABS figures show where new employees live not where they actually work, so more 'employment growth' often reflects massive construction (so Blacktown & Parra will lift off, for example, & maybe Logan-Beaudesert in QLD going forward etc). They might sometimes be city commuters.

Interesting that the number of employees in the Sydney eastern suburbs hasn't budged in 5 years - Baby Boomers appear to be retiring & staying put.

 

Hey mate you are spot on my so called regional properties on the Central Coast, Wollogong, & Upper Hunter are now taking off.

Also...will be jumping on a plane to Melbourne tomorrow to snap up another block near Werribee....the old way of thinking about inner city properties are about to be turned on its head.

 

Can you grab a block for me too please @sash old mate?

 

I wish....I just happened to be Johnny on the spot when the land agent casually mentioned....oh we got this block which just came back on...it might be too small for you...you probably won't want it. It is in our early stages....we are selling it for the same price we sold it at a couple months ago.

Luck I was able to contain my excitement.....after rebates it come in at 145k odd...can put a 17 sq home for 175k. So a house for 320k.

 

This is the point. Gosford is hardly regional but many dismiss just because it's north of Hornsby on a map.

Consider as part of greater Sydney.

What is closer to the Sydney CBD - Gosford or Penrith? Many would be surprised by the actual distances.

 

Yep...just like part of the Gong a lot closer than people thunk....

 

Agree @sash, while I was a Sydney boy I knew Central Coast a lot better than Wollongong. Similar fundamentals, but had a bit of "boots on the ground" knowledge which made it easier to buy ... sight unseen.

 

Yep...."boot on ground" can turn out to be like a kid in candy shop.

 

It's really an unfair advantage if you couple some local knowledge with a fairly basic understanding of cycles and fundamentals.

 

82 km distance from Sydney to Gosford.

56 km distance from Sydney to Penrith.

 

Well not as the crow flies @datto ... but if you warm up the commodore it's much of a muchness.

Ah, to hear that v8 cackle its way down the freeway.

 

Interesting chart.
Those negative numbers certainly haven't had an affect on the Inner West, North Sydney & Hornsby or the Eastern Suburbs house prices yet.
I would have thought those regions would stand up better than most in any downturn as well due to their close proximity to the CBD, infrastructure etc.

 

Datto!!!!

Where u been cuz?

Mate hard to get the 'ole 1981 V8 Commodore to 100 klms and hour on the Penriff Motorway...easier on the M1....

Watcha been up to?

Were you involved in that bluey in the Druie with younguns and coppers outside Seven Eleven the other day?

 

"ABS figures show where new employees live not where they actually work"

I think its due to older, more established areas not adding so many new residents of working age ("New residents" may just be others already residing in the area and shifting address. Or simply people independently wealthy and not needing jobs. Many of them are already retired.)

Whereas in new and outer areas new residents have moved there from interstate or overseas or moved from inner Sydney but it was too unaffordable for them. These are the areas where land is being released or younger families are moving in. These people need jobs. When you have lots of people moving there, of course you'll see larger employment growth... Pete says it reflects were the workers are, not where the jobs actually are. The jobs are mostly in the east still though.

 

"Pete says it reflects were the workers are, not where the jobs actually are. The jobs are mostly in the east still though."

Yeah my old employers Deloitte did a 'thing' on this. Don't want to link to my own blog, but in summary:

"Deloitte forecasts have shown that the Eastern Sydney - the bit around where the city, harbour and beaches are located - has continued to create thousands more jobs than workers for a jobs surplus of around 175,000, and is forecast to continue doing more of the same over the decade ahead.

Western Sydney, on the other hand, has tens of thousands more workers (1,088,000) than jobs (881,000). The net result is that each working day well over 300,000 Western Sydney residents travel out of the region to work, compared to only 100,000 travelling into the region, for a jobs deficit of 200,000."