NSW Sydney exodus is looming?

Sydney house prices are having a huge impact on migration patterns in Australia

 

Anyone in the house who trusts this finding? Who move to other cities and where do they find employment? I have seen people migrating from other cities to Sydney because they found jobs in Sydney (even these days) but not so much vice versa. And if the finding was true, there won't be 50 people attending open houses for buying or renting.

It's like saying when NY property prices soar, people move to other cities of the US. And let's say even if some do, does it have any significant impact on housing prices for those who decided to remain (or forced to remain by their circumstances) in NY?

My observation of any migrants-heavy suburb says that they all have shortage of rental properties in a reasonable price range (and it drives prices up). Be it Manly, Bondi, Parramatta, Chatswood, Blacktown, Auburn or Epping - doesn't matter. Any ****** rental property gets snapped up quickly as the tenants don't have many choices. Where are people moving out of Sydney from?

 

Yes it is very noticeable...

It depends but you are correct in saying the jobs are better paid and better quality in Melbourne and Sydney.

Having said that some people want quality of life for their families and are willing to take jobs for 90k in places like Brissie where they would have been paid 100k in Sydney. That is because after tax 69k vs 75k...but considering that a house in Strathpine which is 19 klms from Sydney is 420k vs 750k in Oran Park (65 klms). When you consider that they will need to pay a mortgage of 17.5k vs 34. Their disposable income is still much better.

 

there has been zero change to our immigration policies that I know of...the demand will still be relatively strong for a long while to come until the policies (decreases in numbers) change...the best we will see is a repeat of early 2000's....A sideways market for a few years.

 

The article is about internal migration.

 

Yes...but the supply is the issue now in Sydney...demand has come off alot.

Sydney will now go back to growing at 0.8% net per annum as opposed to 1.2%.

Believe it not Perth was growing faster than that even during the bust...so was Brissie.....Melbourne/Geelong were double that

 

I would not say better quality and salary quite so much...
Salary in Sydney is about the same as in Mel, and only about 10% maybe 15 max more than the equivalent in Brisbane.
Similar type and quality of jobs exist in all 3 cities.
The biggest difference is the volume. Sydney has infinitely more higher paying jobs than say Brisbane. As a result, it's easier to get those as well.
People struggle I'm Brisbane for that very reason - the number if high paying jobs are a bit low and the type of companies that pay that high salary are also low compared to Sydney. This is, I'd say, one of the main reasons why people who are attractive for those jobs do not leave Sydney for Brisbane.. Maybe for Mel, but not really for Brisbane.
Brisbane has a long way to go to change this. They say they are a new world city and all that...the key word being ' new '.
Those I'm Brisbane that do have high paying high impact good company jobs in Brisbane tend to stay lured by easy life and low cost of living ( especially housing).
It just takes a very long time for Brisbane to have the muscle (e.g number of jobs at the top companira doing high impact work that pay well) that the south does...the south are established world cities..Brisbane is new.
Patience is what's required in Brisbane.

 

If anyone is interested in the numerous reasons surrounding the notion of why people are leaving Sydney simply Google "why people are leaving Sydney."

In saying that, however, historically, there has always been a mass exodus out of Sydney once prices have peaked in the cycle.

Owner occupiers take the opportunity to cash out and move, for example.

So the above phenomenon is certainly nothing new...

 

Boss well said...I have seen this through at least 2 cycles...it just happens...this time it might not be families but baby boomers who want a better quality of life and funds freed up to live on.

 

Yep ...but when you are buying houses in the good inners city places in Brissie for $1.2m...which you would only get an average house for in Sydney for..that says it all.

People are so stressed in Sydney...that even couples making 350k are crying poor....this is because they are carrying $1.5m mortgages on places worth $2.5m.

Assuming an even split of income after tax that is 245k...paying a P&I mortgage is going take a large chunk of that...90-100k of that......

The same analogy in Brissie would be a $1.2m....owing say 600k....on salaries of 240k....that would be about 180k net...of that only 35k for mortgage. That says it all......

 

You also have the family factor to contend with as well.

You generally stay / move to where your extended family (who can provide support - eg Grandparents to help with pickup of kids from school) are located.

 

Yeah true...
What I'm saying is that even fools can get a high paying job with a fancy title at a big-ass company in Sydney. That's why they don't leave.
Converse is true in Brisbane. You have to good (many on this forum including yours truly) yo get the same I'm Brisbane because competition is high for those given the number are so few. This is another reason why Sydney does not want to relocate to Brisbane (high competition for few attractive opps)..and also why many who have that don't leave Brisbane because the net pay-off is higher than sydney ( easy life, good 'talent'in the cbd in particular if you know what I mean... , low cost of housing etc).
The price of staying in Sydney is high costs, and this causes stress. Sure....but Brisbane also has stress....if the employment market sours it's tryluly tough to get the kind of jobs you want because there will be less of an already low number.
On the flip side, even in a bad employment market, there is good talent to be found ( recession proof), and it's generally higher quality than anywhere else including Sydney.

 

Yep a big factor but there are also a lot of migrants with very little ties and couple with not kids...not for everyone.

 

...and there is 20% more stock on the market in Sydney now compared to one year ago.

So even die-hard Sydney property bulls must surely concede that not much will happen in Sydney over the next 5 years?

 

Actually what you need to look at is the rate of population growth, and it's quite down from recent highs, especially in Sydney. Down from 2.25% to 1.6% (slightly up from 1.4% two years ago). That's quite a slip. The only state with high immigration (compared to recent years) is Victoria.

 

OMG...Daniel Andrews has got to go.

 

OMG...Daniel Andrews has got to go.
Wait; what am I thinking...i have IPs in Melb! Good work, Andy!!

 

I was scratching my head.....the population growth into Melbourne/Geelong is something like 2.5%...that means the population will double every 29 years.

So by 2025....Melbourne should have a population of $6.0m up from the 4.9m odd now.....that is both natural and immigration growth.

Geelong should grow from 250k to 300k by 2020....

 

it will be an infrastructure disaster

 

Nah...there is a lot of infrastructure going in the West and Geelong...this is going to blow people away.