Sydney Entering The Crash Territory?

Theoretical peak (or at least the end of rapid growth) is between end of last yr and March 18 suburb dependent for the Illawarra. Most of the suburbs I target are since then either fairly flat, 5-10k down or even 5-10k up after a brief fall from the peak. Ie Warilla fell 10k back up 10k so currently the median is equal to the peak. It depends if you are watching established suburbs full of existing housing stock (negligible falls at this stage) or the cbd and watching new apartments. That is where the bigger fall appears to be in line with the other cbds but probably smaller in magnitude currently.

 

@standtall

Any info on bayside area in vic? (Brighton, beaumaris, sandringham, glen iris, hampton etc)

 

Glen Iris is now 15% down, rest still single digit. Apartments are doing very badly as well.

 

I’d say more than 40% - 20-30% seems like a normal correction given the big run up. But of course, it’s just a personal view, I don’t think there’s an official definition

 

For aggregate indexes -20% is a crash as it's more than likely will be reflected in broader economy. If for example corelogic index for Sydney houses declines from peak 182 to 146 (182*0.8), that would more than likely start filtering through to broader economic activity. It's halfway through atm, sitting at 164, however with that decline speed we will be in the crash territory within few quarters.

I'd be watching for earning guidance from SGP, BLD, BKW, WGN and the likes. All of them had pretty negative swings (some of them dropped eye watering -30% or so) in the last few weeks after earning reports, which tells me pretty loudly construction industry is experiencing significant slow down and lay offs are not too far behind. Just in time for federal election, I suppose.

 

Shouldn't have second guessed yourself.

I think it's pretty clear now that Sydney and Melbourne's corrections have been mostly corrected back again to happy levels, ( albeit at an amazingly rapid speed) leaving the Japan/Ireland et al doom and glomers scratching their heads once again.

 

Yep melbourne too overall is oozing some unjustified confidence in the market at the moment

I thought it might have been a bit of false hope but as sackie says, reaching or has reached a happy equilibrium

 

Look I hold over 65% of my portfolio in Sydney/Melbourne/Central Coast/Geelong/Wollongong...these markets are continuing to move well....I am not crowing yet.....what goes up must come down. I have started divesting..on some places....take profits when you can....

 

Prices will always find an equilibrium to demand imho.

Just think of this, much of the prices in Ireland halve recovered. Yet I hear from many, many Irish here that Ireland is truly a dump to live in.

Anyone saying Australia is a dump??

The fact that Australia continues to be extremely high demand to live in, is a massive indication to me that our real estate prices over the medium to long term will continue to rise. It ain't gonna stop unless Australia becomes a **** place.

Yes it'll have bumps here and there, but it'll be on an upward trajectory, especially the high demand cities/suburbs.

 

Its always interestinf to compare $ for $ comparison for different countries or cities.

Aust is a great place to live but im sure there are countries that are **** holes and still their prices are higher than ours,

There is always a reason why melb is voted high in the worlds most liveable cities whilst sydney isnt too far behind

 

As per my thread, i am taking some profits while cutting my exposure down for various reasons

Some ive sold at purchase price some ive had moderate growth, but mine was a bit of a free up cash strategy

 

A smart move .. no one went the poor house takin profits

 

For those divesting now, where you gonna put the money? equities around the world are at all time highs. SP500 PE ratio is crazy high. ASX similar. I face the same dilemma.

 

Oher markets in OZ.....but I ain't tellin' yet.