Sydney Entering The Crash Territory?

Just a couple of months ago, I started an optimistic thread on 'Sydney price recovery' and some suburbs did look good until the new RP data update which now has started capturing some of the lag created by agents not reporting prices (remember all those "call agent" sold listings).

Current RP data numbers are alarming and yet they don't fully capture the decline as non reporting of sales by agent will have some lag going forward.
Some highlights:

Rhodes Houses - 42% down vs year ago
North Ryde Houses - 18.6% down vs year ago
Epping Houses - 14.9% down vs year ago
Ryde Houses - 17.5% down vs year ago
Pennant Hills Houses - 15% down vs year ago
Eastwood Houses - 14.9% down vs year ago
Hornsby Houses - 16% down vs year ago
Gladesville Houses - 18.4% down vs year ago
Concord Houses - 14.8% down vs year ago

Units falls are still in single digit. Epicentre of this crash seems to be Ryde/Epping area but it's spreading fast. Most Sydney suburbs are now high single digit down vs year ago and prices falls are quickly getting into double digits.

The decline has now truly entered into crash territory, only question now remains whether it's going to be 20% to 30% down or 30% or more overall.

 

Markets within markets. Mainly posting as I'm interested in what's happening in my immediate area. Used corelogic figures as reported by Property Investment Magazine find Australia's best investment suburbs:

Rouse Hill 5.94% up vs year ago
The Ponds 1.59% down vs year ago
Kellyville 2.03% down vs year ago
Schofields 1.78% up vs year ago
Stanhope Gardens 2.21% down versus year ago

Box Hill 35.88% down vs year ago
( although there would be some distortion in median here because of large land parcels sold for development in the last 12 months )

Eastwood 2.84% up vs year ago
Cherrybrook 1.18% down vs year ago

 

By definition - isn't a "crash" a fall below the previous peak?

 

Cherrybrook down or up? You say 'down' and colour is green ..

 

Fixed.

 

Dont know what they do with the data but as someone who lives in Eastwood, I can advise the market has tanked compared to a year ago, not gone up

 

None of these are updated. As of today, updated numbers are much worse. I am taking them directly from RP Data software.

- Cherrybrook down 14.2%
- Rouse Hill down 11.7%
- Kellyville down 12.4%
-The Ponds down just 6.5% is only suburb outperforming in the entire Hills, Hornsby, Ryde areas.

Please message me if you want screenshots.

 

Down 14.2%

 

I stopped using Property Investment Magazine find Australia's best investment suburbs website when I asked my mate to check prices via the Corelogic software and I was pretty surprised by the price drops in Kellyville Ridge and surrounding suburbs when the above mentioned website doesn't show steep drops, so you're right, the website is useless and the data has not been updated regularly.

 

Hmm.....all gone down drastically. It's crashed? Not at all.

• Most of these suburbs had massive activity with the sale of development sites
• Funding to Chinese developers has been tightened
• NSW govt has pulled in the reigns on unit development in several of these areas
• Growing oversupply in these areas leading to developer withdrawal

So, excluding development sites, how are these areas really faring?

 

I think it’s bigger than just new developments or oversupply. Ryde area houses are worst affected and no new houses are being built there since a very long time.

I also think it’s already equally bad everywhere and just a matter of data coming out. A lot of effort is being put into hiding the ‘crash’ by agents, property portals and a lot of people are in just plain denial mode.

It’s a CATASTROPHIC result for Sydney and there is no easy undoing. There are no better properties or markets within markets when it comes to 20%+ declines. Every single house has been affected and we are past point of any return unfortunately.

What’s next: Now APRA or Royal Commission doesn’t matter for Sydney. They have caused the crash they claimed they were trying to avert. Banks will now have to build a new level of conservatism just to protect themselves from the falling market which will ensure further long term declines.

 

You're 100% correct, its gonna be another opportunity to buy quality residentials in good suburbs and also quality bank shares. The dust hasn't settled yet so gonna have to wait 2-3 years and see how big the correction will become, those cashed up will be laughing. Bank stock are very risky at the moment so have to wait longer to even consider them.

 

My mate literally just sent me a listing in Alexandria. He bid less than 12 months ago on an apartment that went for 855k which was just outside his budget.

Same complex, floor and layout with identical fixtures and fittings (basically identical apartment). Just sold for 770k.

Safe to say he is a happy camper!

 

Let me give you another exanmple. Rhodes has registered only 4 sales in last 4 weeks. There are over 100 2 bedroom apartments now listed. There are just no buyers in the market. On paper, Rhodes units are just 6% down versus last year but since buyers have stopped buying, it may be months before the crash data is registered. A lot of suburbs are now completely paralysed with little buyer activity.

 

Usually the cut off crash is a drop of more than 20%

 

That website is absolute crap.

I just checked our suburb and it says prices have dropped 35.33% in the the last year.

Absolute bull.hit!!! We live in Brisbane.

Also says that the Median Price is $970,000.

More bull.hit. More like $1.97M (that is, out by $1M).

House 3 doors up just sold (settled last month) for $2.45M

House 2 doors up the other way is for sale at $2.25M

House around the corner settled in September for $1.52M. Last week, they put an excavator through the house. Obviously bought it for land value.

$970,000 my ass.

 

Been down Morrison Road lately? Busiest that I've seen it on years.

 

Standtall, do you have any results for Wollongong and the surrounding suburbs? Interested to see if the ripple flows in both directions

 

Decline in 5-10% range so far. I also looked up some of central coast areas and they haven’t registered deeper declines like most of Sydney either. One possible reason could be lower volume of sales.

 

It’s because of new apartments going up around the area. It’s the house prices that are tanking, apartments prices are not that much down (possibly because none are selling).