NSW Sydney entering positive territory

with same lender? mistake?

 

same lender, big 4, banks never admit mistakes. They "reconsider"

 

I think one big issue is ‘overseas based credit officers’ often failing to use common sense because they lack local knowledge.

 

I've noticed auction campaigns are often longer now, I assume in order to give people more time to lock finance.

There are also far fewer auctions vs 12 months ago, more private sales, in the areas I watch. Makes sense. You gotta have a good property or good price range when going to auction at the moment or it's going to pass in.

 

ANZ seem to have a new internal policy. They want to lend now because they were running around scared to lend and got whacked by their competitors.

 

Strange times.

Any brokers know what the rules are for low LVR loans and low doc loans in this climate?

I'm only a few months back in Aus after ten years in the U.S and my income is sole trader from U.S sources. I'll prob buy a PPOR later this year in cash as I figure I'd need a couple years receipts for big 4 and it sounds like a PITA in anycase. But if the opportunity was there, i'd probably put 90% down and borrow 10.

 

My understanding is this is very common. I've seen Shane Oliver and a few other commentators talk about it (the usual Feb seasonal jump). He said it is usually about 10% (on Twitter), and it seems to happen even in crappy markets. It's jumped from the low 40s to the low 50s, so that sounds about right. Time will tell I guess.

 

Sydney market ain't goin anywhere for another 6-7...people who keep wishing it has turned have never seen cycles...this is just a dead cat bounce.....

 

All the chat about dec/jan/feb period and core logic vs realestate/domain public info. So the seasonal spikes are simple, the agent sells down stock before dec and launches stock in jan in order not to waste the time period on the exclusivity agreement with the seller. Marketing usually needs 30 days to attract buyers and organise the seller to a deal for private treaty and its at that point it will usually go to auction to enable time for a change in the campaign (part of conditioning the seller), hence increased sales in feb. More to do with this than buyer behaviour I think. Agents dont like stale properties, so 30 days on market is the goal. The calendar cycles mean nothing for a revival unless its compared with another cycle - hence 12 month rolling medians reflected on most house price charts.

Re public info and core logic, if you’re in the weeds i.e looking at suburb data the quickest info comes from agent sites as they may advertise their sales even though they are withheld on realeste/domain. The websites will call the agent though every weekend so for timeliness it will go 1- Agent site, 2-RE/Domain, 3-Core Logic. I dont believe constantly varied reporting behaviour provides a point for comparison, only constant crappy reporting and constant useless analysis. You need the month old data from Core Logic. Or, you close in your analysis to suburbs and follow popular agents in the areas and their recent sales.

 

I can only speak from WA experience, but I find that even when the sold price is withheld on a RE/Domain listing, it is usually shown on the sales history for the "property value" or similar page (populated by Corelogic, RPdata, etc I believe) pretty quickly if not immediately on settlement.

 

RE.com is reporting 67% clearance for today with almost twice as many sold as last week!

 

Matey, 747 auctions scheduled, 217 sold = 67% clearance rate (???) according to Re.com.au Sound more like about 30% clearance

About 60% of the results are unreported this week. I think that's a new record for numberwang.

Let's keep it real!

 

What was unreported rate last week? The point is that it’s definitely showing signs of improvement. It will obviously not return to peak time clearance rates and 70%+ reporting overnight.

 

What I've noticed in Melbourne is EPRs are 10-20% below last year. So vendors meeting the market could be helping lift clearance rates. Despite the uplift in clearance rates for Melbourne many properties which would have gone to auction last year are being listed as private sale. So why i aren't agents confident in an auction campaign given the rise in clearance rates?

 

It’s solid. No substantial recovery, just sellers now adjusting to the new price levels and being realistic. Balanced market as they call it in the vernacular.

 

This is what it looks like when a market starts to bottom out.

 

very funny, you are on the ball....

 

are you kidding??

 

Can you provide evidence on this?
What are the numbers/stats when it comes to balanced market in Sydney

If it was a balanced market we would not be seeing what we are seeing today, prices falling.

Also when did the Syd market peak was it late 2016/17? now we are in 2019 in the middle of a credit squeeze, where investors can not source finance.... investors are out? Do you really believe that home buyers can soak up the volume?? I seriously doubt this.

 

Older stock looks to be doing “ok”. We still haven’t sold any of our new units in Epping or Lindfield for 3 months and have had very poor EOIs for our new development in Bankstown. We stopped actively marketing a while ago but looking elsewhere, offplan sales continue to do dreadfully.

I bought in Dee Why a few weeks ago and have been happy with the results the last few weeks. Have gone from every auction resulting in passed in to 60 to 100% clearance rates