NSW Sydney entering positive territory

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by standtall, 21st Feb, 2019.

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  1. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    It just feels that way, with high immigration cheaper segments will hold up. But I guess if the incomes aren’t there to support the prices immigration might not matter.

    I was at an auction today for an inner west unit with an EPR -10% less than what other units in the building sold for 6 months ago yet still no serious buyers other than myself showed up. I was shocked considering it had everything going for it and was a very affordable 2 bedder as well. It got withdrawn from auction and the vendor wants above the EPR.
     
    Last edited: 16th Mar, 2019
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  2. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    I’m not going to underestimate sentiment as well. You could have all the immigration in the world but if the herd is afraid of losing money they’ll sit on their hands. “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.
     
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  3. gary176

    gary176 Well-Known Member

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    Help me understand....can anyone do this graph with Male on earnings.... it depends a lot on how u access family income.... would also be great to get the absolute numbers behind the same...

    It’s too easy to manipulate charts with %.... the reason I say is that I have seen a lot and lot of families who now how to rely on dual income to manage mortgage relative to let’s say 10-15 years ago and we know how bulls like to provide reasons why prices are OK when clearly they are not..
     
  4. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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  5. gary176

    gary176 Well-Known Member

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    I never said u lied....

    All I said is data charts manipulation are easy to portray whatever story u want.... see Angus Taylor about emission reduction...

    As far as going back to 1987, that’s not even a comparison ... a lot has changed... dual incomes... less job security etc etc...rental returns on flat wage growth for years...

    So it’s important to tell the big picture...similar to your time line...Australian household debt as % of GDP has tripled vs 1987


    I don’t know how anyone with a basic understanding of asset valuations in terms of investment think that current prices are attractive
     
    Last edited: 17th Mar, 2019
  6. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    I know. All good.
     
  7. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    You should add state and City as many may not know where you are located.
     
  8. Herbert

    Herbert Well-Known Member

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  9. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    It's slowed in comparison to Q4 but that's almost always the weakest quarter. We were always going to see a seasonal bounce, because it's happened even through the steepest downturns. February prices and clearance rates, sales etc, are always much more positive than Dec. What matters more is results are much lower than a year ago. The same time last year had clearance rates in the 70s and much stronger sales. Any improvement between now and about May is going to tell us nothing. We might even see price rises. It's not going to mean a thing till we see what sort of weakness we're dealing with across at least a year.
     
  10. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    This is weird because it's also happening in other markets, Canada, UK etc. In 2008 multiple cities crashed. Maybe these things happen in groups?
     
  11. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    "18 year cycle" explains/discusses this.

    According to the theory, the Australian cycle correlates to the US cycle. We are in what they call a mid-cycle correction. It usually runs for 2 years, and it is typified by a policy over-reaction and more stimulus.

    I am sure it is one of many valid theories on this topic.
     
  12. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    It's just supply and demand for credit.

    Credit supply cut by APRA and high prices.

    Prices coming down. In time so will APRA s tightening bias and than market cycle stage changes.
     
  13. Loverenting

    Loverenting Well-Known Member

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    My crystal ball is telling me this Saturday Sydney will pick up weather permitting..
     
  14. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

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    What do u say now
     
  15. Cmelderis

    Cmelderis Well-Known Member

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    What was clearance?
     
  16. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Via AMP's Shane Oliver:

    Prelim Domain auction clearances.
    Syd 60% (=final ~50%, last wk final 49%).
    Melb 51% (=final ~45%, last wk 50%). Weakest Mar for both on my records (back to 07). Depressed as are sales. Tight credit,unit supply,fall in frgn demand,FOMO->FONGO,tax uncertainty all impacting #ausecon
     
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  17. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    It's awesome.

    Great opportunities.

    Was out shopping on Saturday yields are getting almost reasonable in parts of Sydney.

    Interesting Melbourne has now overtaken Sydney on year to date price decrease.
     
  18. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Yep, Melbourne seems to be copping it worse than Syd, now. I suppose it started later.
     
  19. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Os why do you bother going to Shane Oliver to get Domain results? Does it have more authority?

    I prefer just to get them from Domain directly..

    Sydney Screenshot_20190401-191843.png
    NSW
    Screenshot_20190401-191905.png
     
  20. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Those are preliminary results, not final. Only the final result is useful. Esp at the moment when agents are withholding so many results, they have been dropping 10 points once the full results come in.

    Along with the preliminary, Shane gives the expected final clearance based on current revision rates. I've not seen him miss by even 1%

    So lasts weeks final was 49% for Sydney
    and this week is will be a final 50%

    He will typically also compare to same time last year, and being an economist, has a macro picture and will comment on the factors driving the market. That is why I grab the results via Shane.



    Look under the hood of this weeks preliminary:

    Number Listed Auctions: 649
    Number Reported Auctions: 360
    Sold: 273
    Withdrawn: 105

    So about 45% unreported results, 15% of auctions withdrawn and 273 sales out of 649 auctions.
     
    Last edited: 1st Apr, 2019

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