NSW Sydney entering positive territory

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by standtall, 21st Feb, 2019.

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  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    E672265C-A00B-402F-924B-58957907F5FD.jpeg I know it’s too early to draw any conclusions but Sydney daily index has turned green after almost an entire year.
     
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  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I'm seeing a bounce in units in some areas.
     
  3. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

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    Thats big change in the market.. what others think..
     
  4. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    What does this show...and how do they get the data?
     
  5. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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  6. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Is this satire?

    That’s the daily index. Sydney chalks up green days all the time but the trend is overwhelmingly down.

    Look at that quarterly!
     
    Last edited: 22nd Feb, 2019
  7. Jana

    Jana Well-Known Member

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    Ha ha..., After immense drop mkt need to rest little before it’s next upcoming fall.. Until 2020, no focus on Sydney.. It might fluctuate little but the risk of falling down remains quite high..
     
  8. Buynow

    Buynow Well-Known Member

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    One of the suburbs I watch (Gladesville) has prices on just 9 of 24 houses for sale. Looks as though it’s still a very tough market.
     
  9. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Haha ..

    Excitement was shortlived - daily index is back in red today !!
     
  10. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

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    be positive - Melbourne just entered neutral territory - 0.0% change day on day :rolleyes:
     
  11. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

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    yes, its back to -0.05. And there were lot of sales with price withheld. They were very much below the market prices. It doesn't include the calculation. so technically the change is even more than -0.05%.
     
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  12. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Daily index?
     
  13. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    Lol I dont think you can read into daily Sydney data. This weeks auctions will be the best data set so far, there's a high number of auctions now and the new year campaigns will be going to the hammer now. This provides a good read of current market sentiment.
    • If it starts with a 4, market decline continues.
    • Starts in the early 50s, stabilising/much slower decline, but too hard to draw any significant conclusions other than its still a very weak market.
    • Starts with a 6 (unlikely) or high 5's...the savvy investors would probably recognise the winds have changed & the downturn is over. Of course there's less stock to buy now and December was probably the 'low point' time to buy. Those more cautious will probably wait until after the election and pay a bit more for that certainty. On the ground, buyers are probably already paying 2-3% more than they did in December (data to show that in 3-6 months time when setts roll through).
    Its also too early to say this, but lending has changed I think. Approval time has gone from an average of ~3 weeks down to <1 again. Not because banks have less applications, because they're being smarter/efficient about decision making.
     
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  14. dragon

    dragon Well-Known Member

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    lol.. its 71% clearance rate. :p
    https://www.realestate.com.au/auction-results/nsw

    upload_2019-2-22_13-8-56.png

    they just reported only 236 of 508. Its false results.
     
  15. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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  16. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Ha, well a little bit of green helps. Sydney will rain green again, no doubt, but nowhere near there yet. My guess is down down down until RBA cuts.

    There is always a seasonal jump in Feb as Shane Oliver pointed out, Feb usually sees a seasonal bounce versus Dec of +10% in Syd & +6% in Mel (average last 8 yrs).

    BUT sales vols for Feb so far are -58%yoy in Syd & -73%yoy in Mel which is pretty startling. Inventory is swelling because of this.
     
  17. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    Thanks berten. Sales volumes down 58%? I know it is down, but i thought closer to the 20% mark. Do you have any data or a source on that please?
    Thanks,
    John
     
  18. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Yessir, I got the numbers from Shane Oliver's tweet, here. He's a reliable source, so I assume the numbers are correct:

    I'll try to post the accompanying graph, lets see if it works:

    [​IMG]

    And adding some additional charts:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Not all Bearish, Jobs still looking okay:

    [​IMG]

    But still too much part time IMO

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: 22nd Feb, 2019
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  19. TheSackedWiggle

    TheSackedWiggle Well-Known Member

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    as of start feb19, total listing on market compared to this time last year in
    • Sydney is 19% higher
    • Melbourne is 30% higher

    upload_2019-2-22_13-32-46.png

    has credit eased or just approval is speedy?
     
  20. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    One data point - not much but a trending line based on daily data sure does tell the story. Unfortunately it’s continuing to trend downward minus yesterday when it became green briefly.

    I do have a feeling that daily index will start moving up 6 weeks after royal commission report became public to allow for settlement data to start coming in.