Sydney drops 4.7% over last six months - what do you think is happening?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by emza, 22nd Apr, 2016.

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  1. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I'm careful not too blame. Many may not be investors but oos who finally navigated their way through finance to get themselves a place thinking they were doing the right thing.
    Not everyone has the sophistication of an investor
     
  2. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    The prices are still climbing in the SW too, not sure about H&L or OTP apartments...

    Was really hoping by now it had really cooled off as wanted to buy a new home, but it has moved heaps, 10% it seems.......and a friend of mine who is near the CBD but across the pond, sold at the so called peak, he is now behind by 200k+ as he thought he could take his time to shop around.

    Until the rates rise or a financial system problem pops up, it is not going to pull back it seems....some places are going to steam ahead as some made lots of $$$ and can buy bigger, nice places, which in turn keeps those in expensive areas in the upgrade crowd.

    People were looking at the HTW property clock and going....huh....as Syd was back at 9.....while I do not believe 9, you better believe it has been going up !
     
  3. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Yep, a friend of mine did the same too, sold in a rising market but they got caught out in the Sydney market that only gathered even stronger momentum, it was supposed to be an easy "sell unit, buy something bigger in the same area" move but they never secured the upgrader property as the market subsequently moved so much.

    Unfortunately you never know when its the peak till after then event.
     
  4. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    This article notes that houses in Sydney's South West went up 3.8% in the June quarter. I guess it has "relative affordability" as its strength and driver.

    'When will it stop?' Sydney house prices surge
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    For those interested in this market.


    Sydney’s auction clearance rate last week was the lowest in 14 weeks.
    Despite the falls in clearance rates last week, Sydney’s rate has been above 70% for 14 consecutive weeks while last week was the second successive week Melbourne’s clearance was greater than Sydney’s.

    [​IMG]
    Note that sales listings are based on a rolling 28 day count of unique properties that have been advertised for sale.
     
  6. God_of_money

    God_of_money Well-Known Member

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    Sydney and Melbourne house prices have surged again in August, driving housing affordability in the two cities to an all time low.

    Sydney prices were up 1.5 per cent, while Melbourne prices grew 1.4 per cent over the month. Overall, the combined capital market house prices rose 1.1 per cent, Corelogic August Home Value Index shows.

    Year on year, Sydney price growth of 9.4 per cent, has surpassed 9 per cent, the higher end of price growths predicted by experts earlier on in the year. Melbourne is on 9.1 per cent.

    The strong stimulus from low interest rates have seen capital flowing into markets like Hobart where dwelling prices have risen 7.6 per cent over the past 12 months.

    Canberra has also seen some growth rising 6.5 per cent in the same time. A year ago, it was posting a 0.9 per cent fall in prices.

    "The RBA had a grand plan early in the piece and we have gone through a very smooth transition from mining to building boom. It has seen value growth stronger than what people have anticipated, a longer cycle," Corelogic head of research Tim Lawless said.

    "This is the really difficult situation…the household income to dwelling price ratio was 8.4 in Sydney and 7.2 in Melbourne, compared to 5.7 in Brisbane...you will start seeing social issues as people are being blocked out of the market."

    The strength of the two markets is likely to peter out as bank lending gets tighter and could be seen in the slower rate of growth of housing prices, Mr Lawless added.

    Sydney growth has halved from a recent 18.4 per cent peak to the current annual rate of 9.4 per cent. It was the same in Melbourne, Corelogic said.
     
  7. God_of_money

    God_of_money Well-Known Member

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    Come on... doomsayer.. where r u?
     
  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I would have thought Sydney market would have cooled off, and some pockets have but I think what is driving Syd and Melb market is the drop in interest rates. As long as buyers can source finance its cheap money

    However, I am far more bullish on the Melb market 2016/17, Melb has spiked up as OP mentioned, shortage of stock, drop in IR and strong fundamentals as mentioned before. I have been monitoring sales in Croydon, Melb area as I am developing and end prices/Townhouses have gone from $600-650K within the last 3-6 months and rising.

    End of this year is going to be very interesting, I am backing Melb to overtake Syd for growth.... go you beautiful thing


    MTR:)
     
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  9. Cia

    Cia Well-Known Member

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    I saw this happening in journalism having worked in public broadcasting more than 10 years leaving in 2007 when I was on 85K.

    I had a baby and went back into a job at 13k less. I've left again and now work in corporate comms where jobs are 6 figures+. The media industry now employs uni graduates with little experience or knowledge of public policy or caff and pays around 65K tops for young journos with good digital skills.
     
  10. God_of_money

    God_of_money Well-Known Member

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    Like to bump up this thread...
     
  11. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    There are pockets in many of the Sydney markets that are as hot as hell and still climbing. Know for a fact from my peers. Much of Syd still has steam in its engines. Forget all the doom and gloom '60% crash all suburbs' rubbish.

    Not long ago I was made an off market offer for one of my Western Sydney places. Offer was about 50k above market value (based on direct comparable sales) on the higher end. Not selling though. I see the median value in the area easily reaching 1 mil in the future. Currently home worth 800k based on comparables. Offer was 850k.
     
  12. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    Agree. Here's a nugget - Large lot residential prices in Western Sydney are going gangbusters. Whats happening is a lot of people around the future airport site (Badgerys Creek, Kemps Creek) and areas that are being subdivided (Leppington, Austral) are being offered mega bucks for their acreage as the speculators move in. These people are selling and cashed up but they are not interested in downsizing so they are moving a bit further out and it's creating a feeding frenzy.

    Nocookies
     
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  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    @Biz mate you are 100% spot on. You know your stuff :)
     
  14. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Whats that property currently renting for?
     
  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    $480/Week. I could rent it for $510 tomorrow but the tenants have been there for 7 years and looked after the asset very well. Besides I'm not particularly interested in yields.
     
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  16. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    How dare you scoff at an additional $1500/yr (probably go backwards after letting cost, miniscule vacancy, any make good, refresh, additional management fees etc) ;)

    Like the comment "looked after the asset very well" - it's not a house/apartment, it's an asset. :p
     
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  17. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    @Scott No Mates well for us, we've never really invested in residential real estate in Australia for the rental yield. Its always been about capital growth and manufacturing equity. The yield just has to make sense for a deal, but whether that's positive/negative or at market price or under is not really a priority for us.
     
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  18. Tommy Batch

    Tommy Batch Well-Known Member

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  19. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    Heres an example of what I mentioned earlier. An acreage land release not close to anything in particular. A loooong way from the cbd. Stage 1 sold out in one day, stage two just went on sale and also sold out in a day.

    New opportunity to live at Tahmoor’s The Acres
     
  20. ATANG

    ATANG Well-Known Member

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    Read somewhere yesterday that the total number of listing in Sydney is less than the total number of listings in Brisbane. Guess that explains...?