Sydney drops 4.7% over last six months - what do you think is happening?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by emza, 22nd Apr, 2016.

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  1. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    And after all that.... what's your actual point?
    Medians can go down even if some house prices go up. Models are only models, not everything always fits neatly with the trends. Models only try to fit the majority of cases, models might fit 67-95% of cases well (depends on the variances), they won't account for every case and generally speaking you'll always see some outliers. Therefore, some house prices might go up even if the median drops.
     
  2. God_of_money

    God_of_money Well-Known Member

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    some.. yes.. but majority is going up.. 67-95%. I referred to my posted article.. sydney prices went up by 3.9%.. not the original topic

    the point is someone is questioning the validity of statistical analysis!!!
     
  3. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Ok I've had a quick reread the relevant posts. My thought is that the 4.7% drop quoted was looking at a different (earlier) time period compared to the other figure which is based on the change from the last quarter, and corelogic uses like for like attributes (i.e. no. of bedrooms, bathrooms, land size etc) to calculate the movement in house values, whereas the original post doesn't.
    So it should be a fairer/more accurate way to see the true change in the market.
     
  4. emza

    emza Well-Known Member

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    Wow, rude.
     
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  5. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    If you are after a capital gain you would be nuts to be buying in Sydney. I think Sydney will likely drop gently over the next year perhaps another 6%. Melbourne will level out. Brisbane upside around 5%. Gold Coast upside 8-10%.
     
  6. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    I don't really understand why you are so bullish on the Gold Coast Big Max. And for the record, I think Sydney prices will keep going up. Slowly (1-5% range), but it will go up, or at worst, flat. Buy houses though over apartments, and near infrastructure. People are starting to commute much more from the Central Coast and Illawarra, (hate to be driving travel to and Central Coast and beyond on a daily/weekly basis - more and more traffic). Lots of OOs still looking to buy here too.
    Yields are terrible for investors but at least interest rates are low...
     
  7. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Never mind mate....lots of people have don't have the experience think stats are everything...if you have built a large portfolio you would understand that you need to look at the numbers with also due diligence on the ground. There are things you learn on the ground you would never see via google.....or behind a computer.
     
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  8. Rich W

    Rich W Well-Known Member

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    Another interest rate drop, cashed up baby boomers losing some of their super incentives, no changes to CGT or NG... its time for the Sydney boom encore baby! :)
     
  9. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Yup. And just in time... buy my old place, it's on the internet as of today! It's one of only 3 homes in North Epping for sale. 780sqm of land... quiet area, great neighbours, great for schools... (don't have to pay private school fees)... :)

    8 Eastcote Road North Epping NSW 2121 - House for Sale #122579394 - realestate.com.au
     
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  10. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Not at current market values of 1.15m to 1.35m in that area..it will be interesting to see what you get for it but I think you will get something in that band, any case most people who bought in Epping or North Ryde for say 600-700k would have made 500-650k. Good luck.

    Yes...and therein lies the danger.....people will buy in at 1m.....with a 900k mortgage at 4%. That would be about 4k/mth P&I.

    Based on what I am aware of at 6.5% (increase of 250 basis point)..people will be at mortgage stress ...at $5800/mth....at 7%....it is well and truly over (I doubt they will crack this time around)..which means repayment of $6300/mth.

    It reminds me of same irrational thinking in late 80s.......
     
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  11. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    Hi - to address why I'm bullish on Gold Coast it's all pretty well documented in the thread:

    Gold Coast Property News - official thread

    Basically great yields, strong population growth, great benefits from low AUD, very visionary and pro growth major, not to mention the historical arbitrage that takes place where money moves to the Gold Coast big time after Sydney peaks ..

    But do read the thread I posted and then let me know your thoughts.

    I agree with you on Sydney regarding houses vs apartments. I can see some types of Gold Coast property close to doubling next 5 years. I think that is highly unlikely for Sydney given yields, current valuation levels etc.
     
  12. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah..we just hired some people today - all straight from overseas (south africa, india etc)...all im sure on good salaries, we hired them direct from foreign offices. Our clients want specific technical skills..if we cant fulfill them onshore, then our clients will look elsewhere bypassing us- and if that means we have to source frim johannesburg, san Francisco, mumbai etc..then so be it. Am seeing this more and more in little Iold brisbane...
     
  13. God_of_money

    God_of_money Well-Known Member

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  14. Simon L

    Simon L Well-Known Member

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    Wow...South, South West and West are really struggling in comparison
     
  15. Kashmir

    Kashmir Well-Known Member

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    The west isn't really known for auctions and there appears to be far fewer in the west the last few months. I think last year it was more popular cause vendors/agents didn't really know how far someone would go to be able to price it for a normal sale?
     
  16. Myendgoal

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  17. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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  18. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Lemmings running for the cliff?
     
  19. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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  20. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Im seeing a drop in jobs in sydney as of recent...this will be interesting what this means for the sydney market. But thats jusr based on my somewhat anecdotal evidence on seek.com and few others...not a definitive statement by any means. Lookinh at trends of the types of jobs advertised in prior months to now, there seems to be a lower number in sydney cbd.