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NSW Sydney downwards

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by hash_investor, 23rd Apr, 2016.

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  1. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

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  2. Aether

    Aether Active Member

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    Wow, $1,005,500 average for Westmead down to $839,000... almost a 20% drop in 6 months.

    Might only be due to a few lower-quality properties being sold which skews the median calculation.
     
    Jacque likes this.
  3. propernewb

    propernewb Well-Known Member

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    Holy crap! Those are some massive falls!

    I've been watching Kingsgrove/Earlwood for a while and have noticed that some places are taking longer to sell but I didn't expect the West to fall this hard and fast! Does anyone have any real life examples?

    It would be great if someone could post some before-after ads showing asking price and actual sale price or previous asking price and current asking price.
     
  4. Jacque

    Jacque Buyers Agent and Bookworm, Sydney Business Member

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    A very fair conclusion and stats always need to be considered carefully, especially when there's a smaller pool of sales per quarter or per annum to reliably draw conclusions from.
    Eg: Westmead had a total no. of house sales of just 49 houses for the entire 2015 year, which averages out to 12 house sales per quarter- hardly enough to draw a statistical reliable summation from here. Berowra fared a little more (at 61) so average of 15 sales per quarter. Again, insufficient sales (in my opinion) from which to make assumptions here.

    Much easier to draw more telling conclusions from suburbs such as Baulkham Hills, that had 440 house sales in 2015 - the statistics here provide a better picture of an average drop over the 6mth period of approx 9% in housing. Again, however, drawing conclusions based on 6 mths (of which included the Xmas period) of sales can be misleading, and I believe that come September a more accurate picture will tell the story of the market.
     
  5. Aether

    Aether Active Member

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    Totally agree with your points.

    Small pool of house sales and only six months worth of data is likely to have skewed the calculations here. However, its a pretty good indication that the trend is down.
     
  6. Nick Valsamis

    Nick Valsamis Well-Known Member

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    As above, it isn't really accurate. Even now, most houses on the market in Westmead are in the 1m+ range.
     
  7. emza

    emza Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't this imply then that the original median is not reliable though? If 49 over a year isn't enough how many did Westmead have Sept 14-15 to establish the original median?

    Can't have been much more than 49 because that's the Jan15-Dec15 total.

    If a suburb sells 50 a year, the median is fairly reliable so long as the distribution of prices isn't wide. If they have $300K houses and $1.4million dollar places in equal mixture all in one suburb then sure, the median can be pulled all over the place. Is Westmead like that?

    In any case, the median dropping still tells us a lot more lower priced homes sold and not many higher priced within the total sample.

    Seems if we're going to say "nope, not enough sales for meaningful median" then that applies to the first figure too.
     
  8. Aether

    Aether Active Member

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    Without analysing the sales, its hard to say whether the Westmead median to September 2015 is reliable or not. It may indeed not be accurate, just depends on the properties that happened to have sold during that 6 month period. As Jacque mentioned though, a median derived from 6 months worth of sales up to September is likely to be more reliable than a 6 month median up to March given the extended Christmas-New years break in which most people are not active in the property market.

    I would say that if a median is based on a small pool of sales, then it doesn't mean you automatically discount the figure from your research, you would just place less weight on it being reliable and perhaps place a greater emphasis on other indicators.
     
  9. ashish1137

    ashish1137 Well-Known Member

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    Westmead prices are down. A house with 700 sq mt componeny e.g. 20 good street was sold at 1.4 million at the peak of market last year.
    Similarly there were two sales on austral avenue. One corner with 450 sq mt which got sold at 846 (from memory). There was one at darcy road with good land component which got sold at 940 (again from memory).

    So the prices are surely down. Recently, there was a sales of a house at 1 mil (approx.).

    I am not sure if median considers units or it is only house sales.
    These days, people are splitting large blocks into two houses and asking for each house is nearly 1.2 mil. Crazy haa!!

    Also, recently, a couple of block sales have happened on great western highway. That is for unit development. A lot of such sales has happened. Thst might be another reason of the drop.

    211 unit in a small block of 8-10 is sold in a range 530 to 550k.

    I stay in westmead and love the area nearby. Even a 322 unit was recently sold at 630. The rents are up to 550 - 600 for a newly built 322's. So ample opportunities in future.

    Regards
     
  10. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    Prices are ultimately driven, long term, by yields. Yields are at a point where prices in Sydney in most places will flatten (and in some cases fall - watch especially the otp apartments once completed).

    It's this same dynamic with yields which by the way shows that the Gold Coast and Brisbane will perform strongly over the next few years. High yields (and indeed rising yields as the population grows and the economy picks up).
     
  11. TforTim

    TforTim Member

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  12. propernewb

    propernewb Well-Known Member

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