NSW Sydney..down turn is beginning..2018-2019 will present opportunities..

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by sash, 14th Aug, 2015.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Page 9 of 11
  1. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Well ...how is Sydney going.....

    The signs and environment for slowing in 2018 is there:

    1. Sales figures are coming off and the frenzy in the market is not there.
    2. FHB grant may sustain things for a while but even this may not help
    3. The recent bank changes driven by APRA are the real work

    So..what is my assessment...I am still saying that 2018 will be hard for property in Sydney...and 2019 even worse.

    The silver lining is Outer Melbourne, Brissie, Hobart, Geelong, and Adelaide will have their day in the sun. Maybe not as sunny as Sydney...but sun never the less....

     
    sash, 23rd Jun, 2017
    #161
    mickyyyy, FirstTimeBuyer and Perthguy like this.
  2. virgo

    virgo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    441
    Location:
    Sydney
    Oh goody......good timing for 2018 /2019 ...i am waiting ever so patiently for those ridiculously OTP apartments to fall over in Epping...i reckon let those landlords get sick of sponsoring their tenants' rent for 1 or 2 years after completion..

    my finance is all powered up ready to snap 2 up for my kids:p

    softly softly patiently patiently...
     
    virgo, 24th Jun, 2017
    #162
    splatters, Danny370z and Invest_noob like this.
  3. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,517
    Location:
    Investard county
    Wait 5 years for the fire sale.
     
    Biz, 24th Jun, 2017
    #163
    Gladys and skater like this.
  4. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    5,392
    Location:
    Sydney
    Lucky them!

    @Biz fire sale sounds good but got to be right type of property i reckon.
     
    larrylarry, 24th Jun, 2017
    #164
  5. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,358
    Location:
    Sydney
    May be a great opportunity for me to upgrade my PPOR to a 3 bedroom townhouse in the hills area. I was in Castle Hill area recently and I had a sick feeling that it's going to turn out like Chatswood with the amount of developments happening in the area. Previously, I've posted up several links of properties that's reduced their asking value ranging from units, townhouses and houses. I know it's addictive to add to our portfolio collection but guess we need to be reasonable.
     
    jins13, 24th Jun, 2017
    #165
  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    ... but why jump in when a market starts to correct, bust cycles can last 7-10 years, jumping in after a correction could be fatal, plenty of time to see how far it falls back. Have a look at how long it took for Sydney's last boom/bust cycle. I think it was 2004 when it corrected and then started moving in 2013, that's a long time between drinks.

    Look at Perth example corrected in 2014 we are still a long way off, if you think you buy a bargain today could be too much tomorrow
     
    MTR, 24th Jun, 2017
    #166
    Bozley, Wukong, radson and 4 others like this.
  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,565
    Location:
    On a Capital and Income Growth Safari
    One thing to bear in mind with Epping is that you will have train services to Macquarie Uni, Macquarie Park, North Ryde and Chatswood every 4 minutes in the peak once the Sydney metro opens ( 2019 ).

    Then from 2024 new stations at Crows Nest, Victoria Cross, Barangaroo, Martin Place, Pitt Street and Waterloo along with new underground platforms at Central Station.

    Significantly improves transport connectivity from Epping. The big factor is the improved frequency of services in the peak.

    For a change of pace you will be able to head in the other direction towards the significant employment precinct at Norwest.

    Don't bank on significant price drops. Price rises may be priced-in to some extent.
     
    wombat777, 24th Jun, 2017
    #167
    House and Gavin Ng like this.
  8. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    I agree...but bargain can be had when there are fire sales..you should see plenty in 2019 and 2020 as people can't settle or have to sell in Sydney due to rates. Same thing in the higher priced suburbs in Melbourne.

    As for Perth....window of opportunity to buy bargain is between now and 2020....
     
    sash, 24th Jun, 2017
    #168
  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World

    Watching :)
     
    MTR, 24th Jun, 2017
    #169
  10. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    I reckon Perth could really surprise.....
     
    sash, 24th Jun, 2017
    #170
  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    27,859
    Location:
    My World
    Fingers crossed, it would nice to start developing in my own backyard
     
    MTR, 24th Jun, 2017
    #171
  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    I am looking at Brissie/Outer Melbourne/Geelong/Regional/Adelaide NSW....just in this patch there is probably $2-4m in equity for me over the next 3 years...;)

    This is the case in point for diversification......
     
    sash, 24th Jun, 2017
    #172
    Jack Chen and MTR like this.
  13. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,149
    Location:
    Sydney
    from investor point of view, definitely 2013 is the best time to buy in Sydney...shortest time frame to make the biggest bang for your buck.

    from a ppor ( strong emotion attached), anything 2 years after the fat lady sing (2006 onwards) is the best time. there was negative growth, but if its ppor what's few % up and down in the scheme of things.
     
    RetireRich101, 24th Jun, 2017
    #173
    Kasi, ndpjai and MTR like this.
  14. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Jan, 2016
    Posts:
    867
    Location:
    Sydney
    If people keep their jobs I expect it to a little later in 2020/2021 as major infustructure spend starts to come off, having said that there are a few redundancies happening as of late...
     
    mickyyyy, 29th Jun, 2017
    #174
  15. ttn

    ttn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Sep, 2016
    Posts:
    557
    Location:
    Sydney
    I reckon about mid 2025-2027, prices in Sydney will double again. I have seen properties gone off since the 80s till now
     
    ttn, 29th Jun, 2017
    #175
    WattleIdo, mickyyyy and Perthguy like this.
  16. zed_kid

    zed_kid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    232
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Thoughts on what will happen this weekend regarding clearance rates / medians in Sydney and Melbourne? This Saturday is July 1. Will it go to the moon from tomorrow, or take months to filter through?
     
    zed_kid, 30th Jun, 2017
    #176
  17. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    11th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    2,440
    Location:
    Sydney / Canberra
    I expect the median to stay steady. The FHB who are expected to go nuts are not in the auctions market they are into the low end stock. The auction market works for people who already have money and IR do not matter too much to them
     
    hash_investor, 30th Jun, 2017
    #177
    WattleIdo likes this.
  18. ttn

    ttn Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Sep, 2016
    Posts:
    557
    Location:
    Sydney
    ttn, 25th Jul, 2017
    #178
    Zoolander and Propertunity like this.
  19. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th May, 2017
    Posts:
    1,244
    Location:
    Sydney
    Last weekend Sydney auction clearence rates up for the 3rd consecutive week. Unemployment at its lowest it has been in over a decade even though there are redundancies happening most ppl finding new work. Massive infra projects that have years left to complete.

    Interest rates ain't rising anytime soon from the RBA. If the banks and APRA dont put anymore stupid hikes or restrictions don't expect a drop anytime soon. Steady increase in single digits over the next 2-3 years or neutral growth (although recent figures suggest Sydney is still increasing).

    Wont happen by 2020 or even 2021. I'm still making money on all my Sydney houses every month the equity continues to grow.
     
    eletronic_exp0430, 25th Jul, 2017
    #179
    KevinJ likes this.
  20. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,149
    Location:
    Sydney
    RetireRich101, 25th Jul, 2017
    #180
Page 9 of 11