NSW Sydney..down turn is beginning..2018-2019 will present opportunities..

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by sash, 14th Aug, 2015.

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  1. nluo

    nluo Active Member

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  2. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

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  3. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

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    I highly doubt your claim.

    I went to one of his presentation in March 2014.
    His house price cycle graphs definitely did not support your 'Sydney boom was over' statement.
    From memory, Sydney was few steps behind the top of the cycle.
    Please provide evidence if you are going to make an attcking statement against a person like that.
     
  4. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

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    I'll look for it. He definitely called it though. Even Louis Christopher from Sqm research gave it to him on twitter after this article...

    Care to share your evidence from your presentation in response to my "attacking statement"..
     
  5. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

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    http://www.domain.com.au/news/sydneys-great-property-boom-appears-to-have-ended-20140423-374in/

    April 24,2014 "
    ”Affordability barriers are starting to move into the market now … I think the boom is over.” Dr Andrew Wilson
     
  6. Phantom

    Phantom Well-Known Member

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    Don't think next year. Maybe it will sit flat for a while....depending on other factors.
     
  7. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that link.

    upload_2015-9-5_10-48-36.png

    I created above growth graph for Sydney based on ABS's price index. Surely, there is a positive growth but the rate of growth is coming down. So there is point in arguing that the boom is over.

    Here is one graph from AW's presentation back in March 2014.
    upload_2015-9-5_10-57-37.png
    I think he was reasonably well spot on Sydney.

    May be it is all depends on our definition of 'boom'.
     
    Last edited: 5th Sep, 2015
  8. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    As I said..there are indicators that Sydney is slowing....Brissie moving is a indication...watch this space.
     
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  9. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Last year people were saying 2015 will be flat for Sydney.

    Well it's not!!!
     
  10. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

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    I don't get why he would come out and say the boom is over when his charts don't agree.. He's been called out many times on his comments and research and never responds..
     
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  11. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

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    Honest question, what are these indicators?
     
  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    The movement of Sydney money and the speed. There is just a hint no stampede yet...but you will know when it lights up in Brissie.

    On the ground..there is definitely a noticeable presence of Sydney investors.
     
  13. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

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    Well... the 'rate of growth' is coming down. So.. possibly it is fair to say the boom is over. In that case, he is right.
     
  14. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    And it will go backwards...shortly afterwards...more like 2017-2019....
     
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  15. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

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    He isn't right. Since he said that Sydney has done 20%+.. He said that in April 2014..
     
  16. Mick C

    Mick C Well-Known Member

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    Sydney has def slow down in it's growth, but this doesn't mean the prices are dropping in fact the prices remain relativity high and demand is still here but prices aren't going up crazy 10% every 6 month instead it's more like 4-5% per year.

    - Auction clearance rate has been dropping every week, it's stabilizing at sub 75% right now for the last 3 weeks
    - The last 4-5 weeks there has been MORE than average number of sales for listing, as sellers rush to sell while the market is in demand
    - Low end market is starting to pick up pace, with most if not all selling " before auction"

    Im still in the Sydney market ( + Brissy and SA) and i def see less buyers compared to 3 month ago ..and agents are CALLING BACK!!!
     
  17. propernewb

    propernewb Well-Known Member

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    Well this isn't unexpected, given the recent events in China.

    Foreign buyers and investors (the latter being egged on by the former) had been driving the Sydney market since 2012. Now that foreign buyers may be pulling out, it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that the only people left to pay the current asking prices (FHBers and investors) will not have the same purchasing power as before, and will therefore see stagnation/drop in prices.

    Meanwhile we've got developments on virtually every main road and we're looking at further investor finance restrictors in the form of macroprudential and possible rate hikes.
     
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  18. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Correct...there is some pull back.

    As stated previously...the market is interesting....the basis of pure inertia the Sydney market should continue to rise albeit slowly till late 2016/early 2017...the cracks will show from 2017 onwards buyers find that their OTP vals come back significantly lower. From then one psychology in terms of the whole of Sydney market being over valued takes over...and prices will come off. Mostly in the OTP market and markets out West which tripled or doubled. Just normal part of the cycle.

     
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  19. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Well-Known Member

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    While on the subject of predictions, I got curious and went digging.

    Result?

    History shows I have been too conservative. What I suggested to be "highly probably" 18 months ago happened, and then some, in less time.

    Perhaps I should lift my call for Brisbane growth over the next 12-36 months given my track record...

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. dan2101

    dan2101 Well-Known Member

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    What is your call for Brisbane over the next 12-36 months Steve? I missed it