NSW Sydney..down turn is beginning..2018-2019 will present opportunities..

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by sash, 14th Aug, 2015.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,091
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I concur, everything gone quick in the N/NW.
     
  2. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,626
    Location:
    At work
    I very much like the sound of Brisbane being compared to Sydney in 2012. Wish I had a few more biccies.
     
  3. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,872
    Location:
    Sydney
    Just had visions of David Attenbourough docos in Africa when an absolutely huge mass of wilder beast are on the move across the land to get where they got to go.

    Will it be similar to this?
     
  4. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,244
    Location:
    Brisbane
    but it wont have the explosive growth Sydney has had since 2012. Rather, more moderate and steady/continuous growth.
    What will be interesting is to see what happens once oil/gas prices rebound [and they will at some point]. Im guessing thats about 2-3 years away and it could be the impetus for a continued growth in the Brisbane market. If Brisbane has a stronger non mining economy by then [ and it looks like it might], coupled with gas price rebound, I think you will see Sydney type numbers.
    so....its a good idea to buy in Brisbane now- biased=yes, unashamedly hyping = yes...but doesn't mean im wrong.:cool::D
     
    Realist35, Tekoz and Bran like this.
  5. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,091
    Location:
    Brisbane
    How about BNE in 2013?
     
    Bran likes this.
  6. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,872
    Location:
    Sydney
    I've been thinking about this, getting into a position to be super aggressive when the hit sits the fan in Sydney in the next few years.
    But if you acquire, then what?
    How long will it take for the next upswing?
    How long will the bottom last, because you don't want to get in too early and wait out a long bottom.
     
  7. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,767
    Location:
    Perth
    I'm thinking the same thing in Perth. But same, how long will the market be flat? Who knows?
     
  8. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    3,022
    Location:
    QLD
    I am keen to get into both of these markets but not for a while. Perth first and Sydney not for some time.
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  9. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,872
    Location:
    Sydney
    I figure a bargain is a bargain, not because the price is well below where it once was, but because of how high it could go from here.
    Therefore, price drop does not always mean something is a bargain.
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  10. Phantom

    Phantom Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,054
    Location:
    Sydney
    Chances are it will be a while for the upswing. I'd say be patient wait for the crap to hit the fan then get that super deal. Like usual though gotta make sure of servicing during the rough years until the upswing. Or, for investors with serviceability issues, wait until the bottom starts to turn then just jump in. You either get in once it starts moving and miss that extra CG or you get it at rock bottom and hold on for the roller-coaster years.
     
  11. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,374
    Location:
    Sydney
    @York Polides so I guess it will be the next year when RBA lift the interest rate ?
     
  12. trinity168

    trinity168 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    942
    Location:
    Sydney
    There will be other factors apart from interest rate. A lot of folks I assume would have their IO loans on fixed rates so, next year is probably calling it too soon.
     
  13. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    772
    Location:
    Sydney, New South Wales
    Here's a typical property I wouldn't be surprised to see drop 25% over the next 4-5 years.

    http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-kellyville-120490573

    Both sides of the duplex sold for $800K in 2011. Owner strata titled them, a light cosmetic reno and has just sold one side for $880K.

    One of the worst streets in the area to live on.
     
    Tekoz likes this.
  14. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,091
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Sounds like the handywork of someone on here ;)
     
  15. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,872
    Location:
    Sydney
    That's quite a gain, big for a duplex though.

    I was checking out some prices the other day in my area and noticed a house I considered buying a few years ago doubled in price from 750k to practically 1.5m in 5 years.
    http://www.onthehouse.com.au/reports/property_profile/9047087/1_Animbo_Street_MIRANDA_NSW_2228/
    Was seriously considering it at the time, but you can only build a dual occ on it and I purchased a similar property bordering this one, (a bit smaller), for just over $500k 3 years prior, so paying 50% more when the market had not really moved much seemed like bad value, and it seemed they overpaid at the time.
    If only we could go back in time...
     
  16. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,374
    Location:
    Sydney
    @twobobsworth Why do you think that the price on that property will be down for 24% ?
    is it due to the economic condition ? or something that you see not right ?
     
  17. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    819
    Location:
    Sydney.
    Probably cause it seems overpriced..but everything has seemed overpriced for 2 years in Sydney.... I think it's silly paying that much for a duplex. Looks like a normal house though.. Does it surprise you though when castle hill there's Townhouses that sell for 900k.. Looks expensive for what you get but in saying that I never thought fibro houses in Fairfield would sell for 750k or houses in Airds selling for 600k or a house in the crap parts of mounty county selling for 500k... Everything seems well above what it seems to be really worth...that's what happens in a boom I guess..unsure what the obsession with Sydney is.. I'd rather live close to Brissy cbd for same price as a house in mount druitt
     
    Tekoz and 2FAST4U like this.
  18. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,091
    Location:
    Brisbane
    For sure, considering what you get for the same price and how close it would be to the City.
     
  19. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    772
    Location:
    Sydney, New South Wales
    Simply part of the part of the property cycle. Properties that are in poor locations, poor design and where buyers have recently purchased will see significant declines. This duplex backs onto another street that was heavily "promoted" by the media during the last downturn - http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/sydneys-struggle-street/2008/02/09/1202234226918.html
     
  20. Kashmir

    Kashmir Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    5th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    78
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    I doubt it will fall 24%. It does front an awfully busy road..that will only get worse once more of NK fill in. People often use Green road instead of Windsor road.. however it's in an otherwise sweet spot (for the area..) with good schools, an updated shopping center. Towers not too far away.
    Great profit for the original owner though!
     

Price Accounting are a leading tax service for your property + tax issues. Contact Paul@PFI for property focussed tax services using our client portal access, digital signing and checklist based approach for best pricing. Free client pack included.