NSW Sydney..down turn is beginning..2018-2019 will present opportunities..

Exactly. In 2008 Nathan picked up some OTP units in the Central Coast for nearly half price (can't remember exactly where). It's demand and supply.

People say the population hasn't changed much in a few years so why would demand change? It's not so much how many people there are but how many are buying and selling. As you know at the moment houses are selling for way over their valuation. So even if they sell in 2018 AT valuation it still looks like a loss when in actual fact it isn't.
In 2008 I put in a low offer on a place which was laughed at. 2 weeks later they came back to me to ask if I was still interested. The buyer needed the sale. When your friends are saying things like "the only people saying it's a good time to buy are the agents" you know it's a good time to buy.

So it's this type of opportunity that allows you to buy places at discounted prices, not an across the board % drop. Be ready! 2018-19. Even a few years later will still be good buying I think, until the next boom. For Sydney that is.

 

You get it. Bear in mind the best buying is 1.5-3 years after the top of the market...negativity sets in...and people start selling in desperation as the price has not moved for a couple of years. Most people don't understand market cycles....I have also made this mistake also...but have learnt. The other mistake people make is saying that Sydney will not go down much...it all depends...but the last few cycles....properties in certain parts did drop up to 40%...this is a simple demand/supply, the economy, and people's circumstances factoring in.

Just need to know the areas to target. A perfect storm will eventuate...not will it ...but when.

Thanks MTR. My feeling is 2016 is too early...the banks are going crazy with offers to FHB. My guess is these are the people who will get burnt..and this is late in the cycle for Sydney. The smart investor money in Sydney and surrounds has already bought over 2 years ago or leaving it now.

 

Do you mean by 2016 you'll cease buying or you'll have sold up in Brissie?

 

Would have ceased buying in Brissie.

 

http://m.news.domain.com.au/domain/...n-melbourne-developments-20150815-giyxx7.html

Whst an idiot this woman is

Otp unseen because its cheaper then Sydney

Why doesnt she buy otp in tas then?

 

Lol, "Melbourne is Sydney five years ago".

 

Think we're being a bit harsh. Investors on here are buying in brisbane because it's cheaper than sydney, so same reasoning.

Sure it's otp, but that's the same issue whether in Sydney or Melbourne. The price she paid doesn't seem horrible and South Yarra is nice.

 

Personally, I can't wait for it @sash. I'll be there, front and centre with my buying list and equity - ready to pounce! It excites me just thinking about it.....aahhh beautiful days ahead..

 

Price isn't the only reason I'd suspect. Just about anything is cheaper than syd. Why not Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin, Perth etc...? They are all cheaper as well.
Would be good to know what drove investors to pick brisbane vs the other state caps ex Sydney and Melbourne.

 

Why I bought in Brisbane:

1. Affordable for a major city, especially when compared to Sydney and Melbourne.
2. Great dwellings in locations close to the CBD at good prices (long term cant go wrong)
3. When I bought there was scope to negotiate well and really buy BMV. One deal I got was honestly at land value and that block can be subdivided!
4. Some really great opportunities to add value
5. It just made sense to me from a state cycle point of view.

 

@Leo2413 I thought that buying off the plan is risky and as an investor you should move away from it ?

 

@TMNT I guess she's smart enough to see the opportunity in Melbourne.

Once the building is fully erected and build, she can sell it at the top of the market before it tumbled down due to over supply.

 

Only way I see it stopping if Foreign Investors stop buying or banned from buying, they were the ones pushing up the prices and happy to pay millions.

 

Yes I agree with you mate.
But the thing is that any sort of buying will give the local government Stamp Duty and seller will pay Capital Gain Tax.

This is the only reason why the government still close their eyes not fixing this property price affordability issue in Sydney.

Economic growth rate is slowing down, export and GDP is falling down along with AUD$ so what else can you do to generate income for the government ?

I believe that the government already know all of this issue before it happens, but they just have to sacrifice the middle income earner who starts to look for a home rather than stopping the income to the local government from Stamp Duty.

 

Another reason the government haven't done anything yet is they are waiting to jump on foreign investors for buying existing properties and cash in on fines.

 

HI @Tekoz Yes I agree mate. I was more referring to generally there will be properties at good bargains. Having said that, if the OTP unit was a good enough deal I would definitely have a look at it. I don't really care what the dwelling is, it just has to be a really good deal in terms of price and adding value. If I cant add value to it, then ill looking for an exceptional deal on price _

 

Melbourne is already well oversupplied .

 

@euro73 yes for the apartment unit in the CBD area but not outside of the CBD.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I've never been to Melbourne area this year so I can't be sure for your statement generalising Melbourne area

 

One of the considerations with otp is that once you have lived in it or rented it out, it ceases to become viable to foreign investors ( assuming laws won't change for this) . Thus, your market goes down and that makes it more tough to sell. Add high supply to the mix and the picture does not look good.

 

IMO, OTP is really tough to make it work consistently well enough to build a large portfolio with good equity in a decent timeframe. Maybe 1 OTP in a mix might be fine. I just don't see it working time and time again for the most part. Just too many factors which slows CG and increases risks.