NSW Sydney..down turn is beginning..2018-2019 will present opportunities..

It depends on the supply and amount of repossessions....in some areas I can see a drop up to 40%....

For example...someone bought a 1brm in Canley Vale at the peak of the last boom for 200k...and in the GFC it got repossessed and got sold at auction for 95k. That is a bot extreme....bit I can see some of the Hills products for 1 brms being sold for say 650k going down to 450k.

 

@sash
Why 2018? Curious, I think much earlier, 2016
40% driving this market ouch

 

A 40% drop can occur if there are significant changes in interest rate or banking system.

I don't see interest rate increasing to 6-7% in the year or 2 . It has more chances to drop rather than increasing.

40% drop of prices will bring the prices back to 2012 again. Not possible. Just won't happen. Possibly few distressed sale will be selling for cheaper price. But don't expect the market to fall 40%. Just don't make sense.

 

Thanks @sash for completing the picture. I guess bargains can definitely be had from repossessed sales at a time where buyer confidence is at a low...

 

Sydney 2018-19..?
Nope- there's so much hype in the Brisbane market, you will still be buying there in 2019.

 

IR rates are too low...you need a stronger economy thus higher rates but oversupply situation...

 

Hilarious......never say never...but I agree not all markets will get hot badly just the ones which didi large jumps...

 

I will out of Brissie by year end...

 

I honestly can't see Sydney prices dropping at all given the expected population growth, the housing shortage and low interest rates. Having said that, growth will be minimal until salaries catch up and I have no doubt that Brisbane is getting ready to bloom in Spring time. Brisbane for CG in the next two years at least

 

@sash I was wondering whether you would consider putting your quotes at the beginning of your post rather than at the end? You may have some philosophical reason for placing the quotes at the end and I'm certainly not into convention for convention's sake but I do sometimes miss your point and the flow of the thread. Just saying .... hope you don't mind. But if it's important to you then please disregard.

 

No point in buying a cashflow negative property and holding it if it doesn't go up in value for a few years anyway.
I actually think it's early next decade that'll be the right time to buy in Sydney, not this one.

 

Amazing how things change. A month ago things were flying. Then a slow down. Now the yuan slides cutting away the investors underpinning Real Estate.

I should have sold and got out with a healthy profit. Now it is just a matter of weathering the storm that is coming.

The thing that really amazes me is that we put up with this financial system that is built on credit created from nothing and controlled by a few.

Doesn't look like its going to change anytime soon. Good luck to those who got out. I was thinking of selling for a good year but never got around to it.

 

I think I'll have to disagree with you Bastiat, if you sell now, you'll still do much better than you would have done even 12 months ago. So since you've been thinking of selling for over a year, you're actually better off.

 

Might have to grow some balls and do it. Double dare me....

 

Hokay...

 

Not buying, curious as to thoughts on timing of crash, Sash always gets it right, but me thinking early 2016????? But Sash am hoping you are right

 

They are not talking about the market in general, rather the distressed OTP market. When sentiment is low, it's always rather easy to pick up a good deal.

 

40% may not happen in over all market.


But some blue chip $10-$40m ones will come down (as always in any boom and bust cycle)

And

Some OTP may be affected too.

However, forecast of flat market this time around will be new to Sydney market..

Lower interest rate
Strong rental demand
North movement from FHB

Are few reasons that it will be mixed bag effect on some pockets of Sydney market.

Well, wait n watch and hope that we don't have higher unemployment.

 

Ireland took four years to drop 50%. The US was about three(?) from memory for their big drop.

If there was a drop perhaps it would take roughly the same time? Unless the Government tries to pull a Japan and deflate for twenty years.