Sydney 58% published clearance rate

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Yek, 9th Dec, 2017.

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  1. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    Great thread, this one.

    Agree with much of what was already said here. Unless AU economy pulls something magical out of a hat, and unless that magical saviour to our economy comes; sustaining the high volumes of foreign migration will not be realistic.

    Public will put too much pressure on government to allow more migrants in - skilled or otherwise - when local unemployment rates (as fudged-down as these numbers already are...) are trending up.

    Sure, your Bondi Beach 2bed apartment will probably never drop from 1.3 to 800k - regardless of what macro-economic conditions (including recession) ensue. But that is a creme de la creme postcode. The other 90% of cap-city postcodes that arent cream of the crop, well those can quite easily do an 'Ireland' and drop substantially.
     
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  2. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    I'm noticing a growing hostility to immigration in the press. Whether that's leading or reflecting public opinion is a different matter.

    I think that there are probably good arguments for reducing the intake for two main reasons: The first is that the numbers are putting upward pressure on house prices and infrastructure; the second is that it's putting downward pressure on wages.

    The trouble is that GDP growth will take a hit, and the big end of town will suffer, which might be enough to put the government off changing the status quo.

    As for the likes of Bondi Beach, there is evidence that mortgage stress is at its most serious in blue chip suburbs. That would suggest there's some vulnerability to a downturn.
     
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  3. Yek

    Yek Well-Known Member

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    I have seen a few examples of sold prices for glamour properties in Bondi, Tamarama, Bronte in 2013 that are are a good 10-20% lower than what the same property sold for in early 2007. So prices have, can and probably could come down. It all seems academic because the "nominal price" is entirely dependent on the availability of credit which is arbitrarily controlled by central bankers with a vested interest in maintaining asset price inflation. Perhaps better to express it as a relative decrease in price to other asset classes.
     
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  4. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I think re: immigration, Dick Smiths policy is very sensible (pretty much aligned with the 'sustainable australia' political party); being; to have a few years of 30-year-median immigration levels (currently ~ 70K per year, as opposed to the last few years of ~ 200K per year) for a while as we wait for infrastructure, jobs, wages, and services for those already jee; to catch up!

    Not only this but I like his version/pursuit of multiculturalism. Right now our intake is disproportionately coming from the 'big 4' countries mainly (china, india, uk, us). This hasnt really worked to create an integrated multicultural society in recent years (say the past 5) when compared to the 30 odd years prior to that, of immigration. Instead it is "quad"-culturalism that seems to encourage ethnicies stay/build their own little enclaves/suburbs and not branch out and integrate so much.

    Imagine if our 70k (roughly) per year of intake was still skills-needs-based whilst ALSO mandating a "no more than 10% of this 70k per year can come from any one, specific, country of origin".

    This to me would encourage both sustainable population growth as well as a more cohesive, truly multiculturally diverse, population too. What is happening right now isnt working.
     
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  5. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    You are spot on about Bondi...the people who say Bondi and surrounds won't drop are very inexperienced....the price per SQM is ridiculous...the question is what happens when the booms slows and managing CF for years is the main game.

    Lots of people keep saying that places like Bondi are bullet proof...histroy shows otherwise...
     
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  6. BuyersAgent

    BuyersAgent Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Agree Sash nowhere is bullet proof and nowhere is immune to cycles. Many people have short memories.
     
  7. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    Would be great if this could happen, might also see some upskilling of local workers anecdotally I am hearing about many uni grads struggling to get jobs in fields that are dominated by immigrant skilled workers. Not sure about your max 10% criteria I believe just a needs and skills based system.
     
  8. jins13

    jins13 Well-Known Member

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    I think some of the new grads need to start being less precious and doing jobs that may not necessarily be the perfect fit. Everyone needs to start somewhere and build up their skill base and contacts in the industry.
     
  9. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Survival of the fittest.... sure there is competition in some fields. But if you are adaptable you should do well, you can move into another field. General people skills are transferable across all industries or roles. If you are a logical person, you can transfer your skills to other fields. Jobs in 10 or 20 years time won't be the same as they are today. You have to move with the times.
     
  10. Someguy

    Someguy Well-Known Member

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    I so agree with this people skills are the most important skills to landing a job. I know many people who have landed a job with fake resumes and fake referee. The have the confidence and people skills to keep the job even if they don't quite have skills and experience to do the job properly. Conversely many skilled people out there that don't have the personality and don't know how to play the HR game well enough to move to a more suitable role
     
  11. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    This.