NSW Sydney 2022 - Post a Bargain

Discussion in 'Property Analysis' started by sash, 17th Feb, 2022.

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  1. strayingknight

    strayingknight Well-Known Member

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    Congrats! I think you've done well too. Hopefully building cost will be a bit more friendly by then!
     
    Redom likes this.
  2. ParraEels

    ParraEels Well-Known Member

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    Posted about 74a Adderton Road

    Expectation $ 2,000,000
    For sale price - $ 1,950,000
    Revised price - $ 1,890,000
    Sold price - $ 1,860,000

    5% hair cut, took 162 days to complete the transaction

    74A Adderton Rd.JPG
     
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  3. ParraEels

    ParraEels Well-Known Member

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    Greystanes - 4% drop

    Initial asking $ 1.050m - $ 1.150m
    revised price $ 1.030m - $ 1.1m

    77 Greystanes Rd.JPG
     
  4. beachgurl

    beachgurl Well-Known Member

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    They were kidding themselves at that higher price in any market. Terrible location on greystanes rd on a bend with a safety rail spanning the frontage.
    Keep an eye on the duplex on Damien Ave to see if properties in good locations are falling in price. There seems to be a few ambitious opening prices for duplexes and small 3 bedder atm in greystanes but no one is biting.
     
  5. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Greystanes median still growing as of less than a month ago.

    Screenshot_20220417-232044_Chrome.jpg
     
  6. ParraEels

    ParraEels Well-Known Member

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    That one already dropped $ 26,000. Initially asking $ 925,000 and now reduced to $ 899,000.

    https://www.domain.com.au/6a-rein-road-greystanes-nsw-2145-2017575895
     
  7. JTF

    JTF Well-Known Member

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    Last couple of months in St George (Sans Souci, Bexley, Allawah etc) has been dire - cancelled auctions or revisions of the price guide well in excess of what the Corelogic hedonic index is tracking at. Same song across Sydney it seems, potential for subdivision/value add plus already renoed are still commanding a slight premium vs. high.

    Same goes for Earlwood and that inner south west pocket, demand's arse has fallen out.
    I'm surprised at the velocity in negative sentiment shown across the board since late last year, isn't getting better in the above pockets
     
  8. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    I’m looking to upgrade in this area in next 12-18 months. The auction rate are down but prices not so much. Maybe 5-10%. Still 30% above pre-COVID

    The rental yields and demographics suggest there could be another -20% to go. But no guarantees, still seen strong $2m+ For average homes on decent land.

    Then there is the luxury sales still kicking goals

    Alice 89 Alice Street, Sans Souci

    https://www.domain.com.au/89-alice-street-sans-souci-nsw-2219-2017775014
     
  9. JTF

    JTF Well-Known Member

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    Bloodbath in St George and Inner South West.

    All passed in with highest offers down around 20% vs. what they'd go for during the peak of the cycle in October last year. Pucker up folks, going to get nasty with a bearish RBA to follow this week.
     
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  10. ParraEels

    ParraEels Well-Known Member

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    FOMO was still present in properties under $ 1.5m,

    Screenshot_20220604-154615_Chrome.jpg
     
  11. JTF

    JTF Well-Known Member

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    Depends - This got passed in at $1.25m in Carlton
    https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-carlton-139288175

    Rear lane access with 650 sqms, prime for a value add. Would've fetched north of $1.6m back in Q2 last year.

    https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-earlwood-139310335
    Passed in at $1.55m. This sells for $1.8/1.9m in Q2 last year.

    Granted, both properties in need of love but solid blocks in half decent areas.
     
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  12. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    The Carlton one looks ok, but it’s near busy road and south facing in aspect.

    you are right though, buyers dropping off
     
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  13. JTF

    JTF Well-Known Member

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    Yep, definitely not creme of the crop stock.

    Vendors need to realign expectations, the divide between market participants and expectations is now getting out of hand (depending on stock and location of course.)
     
    ParraEels likes this.
  14. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    sash likes this.
  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Lots of baby boomers retiring. Markets like these where home are larger and also need renovations will drop a lot. Watch this space.
     
  16. ParraEels

    ParraEels Well-Known Member

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    Lately noticed that most auctions i visited won by investors. Some of those properties are now listed for rent. $ 600 - $ 1000/w cash flow negative after tax benefit. Look at this example at Beecroft.

    $ 3.11m purchase and $ 1300/w rent. Screenshot_20220605-124845_Realestate.jpg Screenshot_20220605-124907_Realestate.jpg

    Not sure if many of these investors can handle 4-5% rate and $ 1000/w cash flow negative for many years
     
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  17. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    At the price point and cashflow return. They are better off buying VAS and collecting a 5% dividend

    the capita growth may be low in the coming few years and interest rate cost will start to bite.
    Let’s see how these investment tract in 2 years time
     
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  18. JTF

    JTF Well-Known Member

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    2.1% Yield with huge capital outlay, not attractive at all and when factoring inflation and declining asset prices, in the near term it might be a negative double digit real return.

    Parking that cash in CLW @ 6.2% is a better shout or going down the unlisted route.
    Will be interesting to see what happens with these sort of properties when cash rate normalises, I expect them to underperform the median and losses to be higher.
     
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  19. Tofubiscuit

    Tofubiscuit Well-Known Member

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    Wonder if these Investors have the capacity to hold when rates go to 5% in next 2 years
     
  20. ParraEels

    ParraEels Well-Known Member

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    Purchase around $ 10m
    Rent $ 3500/w

    Screenshot_20220605-135927_Realestate.jpg Screenshot_20220605-140004_Realestate.jpg

    Probably not purchase using loan but still doubt about captal gain prospects