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Sydney , 10 % growth in 2016 ?? what do you think

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by See Change, 21st Jan, 2016.

?

What growth do you think Sydney will have in 2016 ?

Poll closed 21st Feb, 2016.
  1. > 10 % , 10 % , that's conservative

    2 vote(s)
    1.8%
  2. 10 % sounds about right

    4 vote(s)
    3.6%
  3. < 10 % , but there will be some slow growth

    31 vote(s)
    27.7%
  4. zero , I think sydney will flat line for a while

    22 vote(s)
    19.6%
  5. 1-3 % down small decrease , but not much

    10 vote(s)
    8.9%
  6. mild to moderate decrease as comes of highs , maybe 5 %

    34 vote(s)
    30.4%
  7. armagedon here we come .... The D & G's finally got it right

    9 vote(s)
    8.0%
  1. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I also disagree, in fact it is wrong because some markets in Syd have already started to fall back.

    MTR:)
     
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  3. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    Being pedantic , you can't say it's wrong at this stage , even if it has dropped back from the peak . Have to wait until the end of the year .

    Cliff
     
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  4. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    No idea, but from a purely selfish point of view I hope not as it will drive further regulatory and possibly political action which will harm all investors.
     
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  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I voted < 10%, yep lets see what happens.
    My point is Syd West has already dropped 10%, clearly a sign of things to come.

    I certainly wont be holding my breath for 10% increases
     
  6. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    In my own "gut feel" valuation spreadsheet I've already trimmed 10% of Sydney values.
     
  7. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    Which Sydney market? :confused: There are many. Some will fall back 5% I'm almost certain. I'm also reasonably certain some parts of Sydney will grow by 7,8, 9 or 10% or more this year 2016.

    There are many on this forum that only have experience of a flat period from 2003 to 2011(ish) But this was not a "normal" cycle, just like the 13 years of constant growth preceding it in the period from 1990 to 2003, was not "normal" either.

    Just because Sydney had 2-3 good years of growth 2012 - 2015 does not mean it is in for an extended flat period, IMO. Growth was in the order of 20% pa in 2014 & 2015 but this is not unprecedented. There were a number of years in the 2000 - 2013 period where growth in some parts of Sydney exceeded 20% pa - notably in 2001 & 2002.
     
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  8. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Agree with @Propertunity . Sydney has too many markets. And markets within markets. And Sydney imo it self is a unique ciy in the world to have no growth in all markets. I predict some markets will fall, some will flatten and some with show opportunity.
     
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  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Alan

    I agree, this is Australia wide, there are always many markets within markets

    However, further growth is also dependent on what is happening around us, the economy.

    Its no secret that China has some economic woes at the moment and this has already impacted on Australian property market.

    APRA - lending is continuing to tighten this will impact on property prices and already has.

    I am not a betting person, but for the reasons above I would be very surprised if we see growth, and time will tell, there may also be lower price points that are attractive that may keep a particular market stable???

    Market sentiment is very powerful Cliff mentioned this some time ago in one of his posts and I agree.

    MTR
     
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  10. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    I agree :)

    However, you can always point to different factors that drive any one particular cycle – stock market crashes or booms, interest rate rises or falls, APRA regulations, easy or tightening credit, housing stock shortages or excesses, government intervention – grants, negative gearing, stamp duty relief, foreign investment and so on. But just like the tide, the cycles continue on year after year, decade after decade. The only people who benefit from rising cycles are those who actually own real estate, while others watch on or debate the unfairness of it all and how property is ‘so unaffordable’ and ‘Why doesn’t somebody or the government do something?’

    The rules around selecting investment grade property for the best long term capital growth still apply no matter which part of the cycle we are in.
     
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  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Lets watch this space over the next 6 months, interesting/challenging times indeed

    MTR:)
     
  12. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    Less than 10%, but who knows. Nobody, that's who. Buy and hold in Sydney for 20 years and you'll make money. Sell up and move to Qld with money left over for retirement leisure activities. Standard story for decades. Property is a get rich slow scheme after all remember.
     
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  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    this falls into the.... "property phrases I dislike thread"... all to their own, if you have 20 years go for it.

    MTR:)
     
  14. Sonamic

    Sonamic Well-Known Member

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    So does the word "scheme". Everytime I hear it I think of Dick Dastardly.
     
  15. mini2

    mini2 Well-Known Member

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    Would be nice if it plateau for a bit.
     
  16. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    I don't mind a drop .

    Our next move in Sydney will be a buy , but unlikely for many years .

    Cliff
     
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  17. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. That was the experience during the last housing decline in Sydney. The more affluent postcodes experienced the worst and suburbs that didn't enjoy that same growth during boom periods didn't suffer at all.
     
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  18. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    @Ozzie in Texas Agree. And really Sydney is not just 'another city'. Its uniqueness imo will often see at least some markets within it offer opportunity. I still wouldn't be buying in a boom or just post boom, but i do think there will be some markets in Sydney that may offer deals.
     
  19. Ozzie in Texas

    Ozzie in Texas Well-Known Member

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    Our best buy in Sydney was during the housing fallout in 2008.

    Even prior to the fallout, Canterbury/Bankstown was still down relative to the rest of Sydney due to 9/11 and racial tensions.

    But it held it's prices, while prices dropped elsewhere.....and boomed quickly ahead of other suburbs. It offered low entry point, with great transport and shopping hubs. It was a no brainer.

    The advice on investments is always the same..........regardless of the investment vehicle. Do your research and figure out where the potential lies.
     
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  20. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Agree.
     
    Last edited: 21st Jan, 2016