Swedroe: This Metric (CAPE 10) In Dire Need Of Context

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Nodrog, 15th Jul, 2017.

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  1. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Nodrog, 15th Jul, 2017
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  2. Wiz of Aus

    Wiz of Aus Active Member

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    Thanks @austing, you guys are full of wisdom
     
    Wiz of Aus, 24th Jul, 2017
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  3. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Obviously we will only know in hindsight, but Swedroe raises some very fair points here. I don't mind Jack Bogles formula (dividend yield + earnings growth + PE ratio change) for 10 year expected returns, but all of this ultimately is a punt.

    Bernsteins suggestions around behavioral signals is probably as good a tool as any!
     
    The Falcon, 24th Jul, 2017
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  4. Wiz of Aus

    Wiz of Aus Active Member

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    Yes agree although being a retired stockbroker I tend to favour a technical approach as well as using the broad biases formed by other data.
     
    Wiz of Aus, 24th Jul, 2017
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  5. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    I'd also suggest that comparing Australia and US markets PE to which represents relative value should apply a haircut to Australia PE - We are much closer to the left hand side "emerging markets" than the US market being the benchmark for diversification with our sector concentration and sovereign risk issues that are now presenting.
     
    The Falcon, 24th Jul, 2017
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