Sutherland shire battling?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Shire86, 12th Sep, 2018.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    254
    Location:
    Melbourne
    OP's question.
     
  2. marty998

    marty998 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    306
    Location:
    Sydney
    @Stoffo not a lot for sale in Greenhills so it is hard to know - presumably the people who bought and built there would be the type to live for many years to come.

    I just wonder when all of those shacks get longer term salt damage and covered in sand after every gust of wind goes through will they still be worth the $2.5-$4m spent
     
    Stoffo likes this.
  3. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,233
    Location:
    NSW
    I don’t get Greenhills.....a bunch of 600sqm kit like new builds with no aspect. Mozzie pit. No amenities. Walk to the beach is all it has going for it. Much rather spend same money on port hacking peninsulas - burraneer, lilli pilli, casbah south.
     
  4. ShireBoy

    ShireBoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Nov, 2017
    Posts:
    244
    Location:
    Sydney
    But the chart groups Sutherland/Heathcote/Menai, so presumably all of the Sutherland shire, not specifically the suburb of Sutherland?

    Any news on that apartment block in Cronulla that went belly up 6 months out from completion?
    Builders quit unfinished Cronulla project
     
  5. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    1,339
    Location:
    Sydney
    Look its tough.
    Construction finance is really hard from what is illustrated in the project above.

    APRA may have created more issues than it cares to understand. We will see.

    At least Iron ore will do well over the next 12 months. :)
     
  6. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Jul, 2016
    Posts:
    1,166
    Location:
    Sydney
    It's "near" Cronulla :rolleyes:
    There are some very nice architect designed homes, and various builder spec homes in amoungst the mass produced....

    Didn't we sell off all the sand to Venice beach USA ?
    I haven't seen a sand drift over Kurnell road since forever.

    @marty998 has a point, most are likely Owner Occupied, and at $2.5m average it isn't an investors suburb really.

    @Illusivedreams there seems to be a lot of development still happening, with a DA lodged for Eton st Sutherland for a major development (there are several others already lodged with works yet to commence).

    Yes, Sutherland/Kirrawee (even Miranda) is an area to avoid for investment units (South Village is knocking nearby rental returns !
     
    marty998 likes this.
  7. Stoffo

    Stoffo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Jul, 2016
    Posts:
    1,166
    Location:
    Sydney
    Yes, the problem is that it is "dwellings" in the report.....

    Units seem to far outweigh houses in Sutherland and surrounds now, units have taken a beating due to the amount of finished and near finished developments.

    Houses close to rail centre's are up (as the development spreads)
    Houses in the general area are not down all that much
    We have a great spot in "sutho" with river/bush views, currently trying to source some equity and the bank valuation is still quite good :D
     
  8. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    1,339
    Location:
    Sydney
    My neighbour paid a record for the section of the street (non waterfront) settled 4 weeks ago.

    So houses are holding up well .

    Yowie Bay Lilli Pilli , Dollans Bay. Great results still.

    Alot of up selling.

    12 Sandbar Place Lilli Pilli NSW 2229 12 Sandbar Place, Lilli Pilli, NSW 2229

    This was a nice home. Our friends are 1 house over so I saw this property. Gorgeous home. Obviously quality is getting good dollars.
    PS I love Greenhills. Walk to beach clean. Neighbourhood.
     
  9. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    254
    Location:
    Melbourne
    That's good, you may be the exception, but one sale doesn't make a trend. If you pull up the data, Corelogic puts house prices (not units) down 12.7% at Oct 18 overall in Sutherland, mostly since June that year.

    I don't have data for the last 3 months, but I'd be surprised if it was +

    https://www.propertyvalue.com.au/suburb/sutherland-2232-nsw
     
    Last edited: 31st Jan, 2019
  10. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    1,339
    Location:
    Sydney
    Without being arrogant Sutherland is a small cheaper part of the shire.
    I keep asking what Sutherland has to do with it? The analysis' of Sutherland Shire can't be based on a small part.

    Sutherland is like the Le perouse/Hillsdale of the eastern suburbs.

    It's far from water it's devided by highway's and intersections. It's a non destination unless you need to see the council.

    Have to look at all markets. Sutherland is dominated by apartments.

    Let's compare to say Dollans Bay. Not a.single apartment and little affect in current amrket down turn. But you can't use Dollans Bay to convey a message.
     
    marty998 likes this.
  11. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    1,339
    Location:
    Sydney
    PS.

    OPs question was about Sutherland Shire. Not Sutherland the suburb.
     
  12. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    254
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Hard to say houses are holding up then unless a specific area is specified then, no?

    Dollans Bay doesn't seem to be big enough to have data since only 500 ppl live there... but the 5 surrounding suburbs data points are as follows, by proximity and I believe within the shire:

    For houses
    Little Wobby: -19% yoy
    Port Hacket: + 4 % yoy
    Lilli Pilli: - 20% yoy
    Caringbah: -7% yoy
    Yowie Bay: -9.7% yoy

    So OP would either have to specify what suburbs within the Shire, or you could take every suburb in the shire and average it but that doesn't seem like it would give a clear picture as it varies wildly.

    Or just drive around the map in the link I sent, and check the data for houses and or units on a per suburb basis for the ones your interested in, with the caveat the data is 3 months behind. A good tool none the less.
     
    Last edited: 1st Feb, 2019
    Shire86 and ruraljuror like this.
  13. marty998

    marty998 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    306
    Location:
    Sydney
    With all due respect, Little Wobby is 100km+ away on the Central Coast.

    Caringbah is probably the best measure. Yowie Bay, Lilli Pilli and Port Hacking would be skewed by small sample sizes.
     
  14. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    254
    Location:
    Melbourne
    LW might’ve been mislabled, but in any case you can look at every suburb of the Shire quite easily in the link above if you’re interested in + - trends for the area.
     
    Last edited: 1st Feb, 2019
  15. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    1,339
    Location:
    Sydney
    Lilli Pilli
    Will change depending on what stock is sold with little data.

    If one or two $4,000,000 waterfront is sold it wills skew price up .and non waterfront will bring price down.

    All im saying is You have to understand the area.

    If you are quoting numbers the way i see above you are not familiar with this area.
     
  16. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    254
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Sure, but I've provided the tool for OP to look at data for ALL suburbs in the Shire. Most of them are down, whether I'm familiar with them or not is beside the point.

    If you think Corelogic's data is flawed, take it up with them and let us know how it goes.
     
  17. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Oct, 2017
    Posts:
    1,339
    Location:
    Sydney
    Im saying you dont understand the area.

    So a buyer comes to say Lilli Pilli and offers 20% less than last year for a $1,900,000

    Offers agent $1,500,000 The agent will say go home.



    You offering advice in an area you have no idea about.


    I would not offer my advice in Geelong market ...

    Leave advice to people that know a market.


    Even Sutherland is split market.
    New apartments
    Vs
    Say existing houses.

    I will not bother you in this thread any more we have different point of view.
     
    Shire86 likes this.
  18. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    12th Jul, 2018
    Posts:
    254
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Fair enough, but I gave no advice, just data.

    Numbers can get skewed on the way up and the way down, sure, but there looks to be a clear downward trend in most of the area regardless, and the data is still a better measure than an anecdotal.
     
    Last edited: 1st Feb, 2019
  19. ShireBoy

    ShireBoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Nov, 2017
    Posts:
    244
    Location:
    Sydney
    Markets within markets ;)
    The Shire is such a tricky thing to generalise. Caringbah is one thing but once you start drifting off north/south away from the train and closer to water, you're in a whole other market.
    Maybe the North Sydney has a similar thing. You can't just generalise the whole Willoughby, Lane Cove, Neutral Bay, Mosman area in one statement.
     
    Illusivedreams, Shire86 and marty998 like this.