Supply & Demand statistics!

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Toby, 18th Oct, 2017.

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  1. Toby

    Toby Well-Known Member

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    Hi Guys,

    We all know there are a plethora of property statistics out there - but I haven't managed to come across any great location to identify supply/demand statistics, so where do you source yours?

    My thoughts are on the supply side I should be looking at things like stock on market by city/suburb (historical), dwelling construction approvals, construction pipeline and on the demand side maybe net migration?

    Are there any other statistics you would look at?

    Thanks heaps.
    Toby
     
  2. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Once I identify an area/suburb of interest I just phone re agents and find out what is selling/product, days on the market, listings and demand in terms of whether there of multiple offers on properties. I prefer to get first hand info from those on the ground selling
     
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  3. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Crane count is always interesting!
     
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  4. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Owner Occ to Investor ratio.
     
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  5. Anthony Brew

    Anthony Brew Well-Known Member

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    Short term drivers include

    Vacancy rates doping
    Days on market falling
    Auction clearance rate
    <60% = buyers market
    60-70 = balanced
    70%+ = sellers market
    Note that auction clearance rate is useful for NSW/Vic, but some locations avoid auctions especially during corrections (ie Perth), so there was some other stat to use but can't remember.
    Median price rising
    Vendor discount decreasing
    This has the discount but does not show the history
    5% or under seems ok. 10% or over means low demand
    Total rent increasing
    But yield would depend if price increase is outstripping rental increase or not.

    Here is a bit of a summary

    locationscore.com.au has some of this information and it is $97 for 3 months which seems super cheap compared to pricefinder and corelogic which are pretty damn expensive but I have used none of those before so it is not a recommendation..

    Here are the main websites that I use
    www.realestate.com.au/invest
    www.realestate.com.au/invest
    www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/
    www.sqmresearch.com.au
    www.onthehouse.com.au
    www.onthehouse.com.au
    www.dsrdata.com.au
    If you find any more sources for useful data, I would appreciate it.


    Important:
    You should note that these are short term drivers. You really need to look at the long term drivers first - in particular, population growth, economy & income growth, infrastructure, etc.
    For population/economy information, follow @JL1's posts. They are fantastic.
    Oh and for excellent Melbourne-specific economic information watch out for posts by @melbournian.

    If I understand correctly:
    1. Population growth is first (ie macro drivers)
    2. Leading to increased rental demand (vacancy rates down)
    3. Leading to increased rent and yield (as rent increase outstrips the low growth)
    4. Leading to more sales due to higher ROI (ie yield) attracting investors (DOM down, clearance rates up, discounting down, prices rising)
    5. Leading to price increase
    6. And when price growth is faster than rent growth, yield starts to come down even though total rent is increasing

    Also just throwing this in because @David Shih wrote an excellent post there which you might find useful.
     
    Last edited: 18th Oct, 2017
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  6. Craig202

    Craig202 Member

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    one basic thing to look at is the trend of the number of properties purchased over a 12 month period as supplied in the property magazines etc and the number of properties listed online in a particular area. The number purchased represents demand and the number on market represents supply. Hope that helps. Cheers
     
  7. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    @Simon Hampel can the forum have an "investor resources" section where links like the ones shared here can be made easily available? Posts like these are fantastic, but they too easily get lost
     
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  8. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    You mean like this Resources | PropertyChat ?

    It's there - we just need to decide how to set it up to get the most value out of it.
     
  9. JL1

    JL1 Well-Known Member

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    Nice one. Yeah im thinking like links to known data sources, so when someone asks something like "where can i find suburb-specific vacancy data", there would be a section of the forum with links to vacancy data such as the SQM Research free data portal.
     
  10. Toby

    Toby Well-Known Member

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    So you would utilise other statistics to narrow down the suburb/location before getting the first hand demand/supply of the area?
     
  11. Toby

    Toby Well-Known Member

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    Definitely! also depends on what kind of stock you're looking at purchasing.
     
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  12. Toby

    Toby Well-Known Member

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    Loved the summary! Great starting point and shows where to gather the information from.

    Whilst looking on the SQM site I found really what I was looking for, total property listings by city (can even do suburb): SQM Research - Total Property Listings

    It is amazing that you can see how Melbourne & Hobart (the two hot cities at the moment) have had a collapse in total listings - this has really pulled out the higher marginal buyer and see property prices increase.

    Also saw the same trend 4/5 years ago in Sydney - so I think this is a great stat to look at to predict growth.

    Any other key supply/demand stats we should look at @petewargent ? Or just keep an eye out on your blog posts :p
     
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  13. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Tx for this. Agree its a very good indicator.
     
  14. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    I've been charting listings. Doesn't work on its own. But after a few months you can start to see what is happening. If listings drop then demand should be increasing.

    Hard to tell on its own but with a bit of boots on the ground and market knowledge it can be a fantastic indicator.

    Only other thing I can say is that stats from the research companies are not reliable. The variances in vacancy rates, property prices etc are huge. Someone might be right but which one? And don't get me started on the Corelogic "hedonistic" index...

    By all means use the data companies to get a vibe but @MTR is right to call the agents on the ground to back the data up.
     
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  15. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    There is always a reason for a boom, dig deeper? immigration, infrastructure, rezoning
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    start with leads....
    We have had 3 boom cycles since 2013, Melb, Syd, Perth and now Tassie
    There has been so much information on PC regarding this and auction clearance would also help. Plenty of info in the media.

    But to take the guess work out of it you need to still network with people on the ground. Imagine if you purchased in the wrong markets during this period, you don't get that time back
     
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  17. DowntownBlock

    DowntownBlock Well-Known Member

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    Agreed... one that could collate top level data of say price movements, economic data, interest rate moves etc that could be verified and easily tagged would certainly stop a lot of cutting and pasting!