Stockmarkets: Technical Analysis

Just to reiterate, I wasn't comparing it to VAS or any other ETF, I was trying to show how these funds can go under.

But to bring up the point about VAS, here is a statement directly from the PDS from Vanguards website:
The last line: The Fund could terminate.

 

Exactly, follow the trend

 

Of course it could. This is why survivability is a key criteria in product selection. Exotic products are high risk in this regard. Most Funds / ETFs close not due to value going to zero (as you can with 3x levered punts) but due to FUM being too low to make the product viable.

 

Exactly, the WTIU ETF didn't go to zero but UBS pushed it down once they saw that it was not feasible anymore, as to close the fund they have to buyback the securities from investors.

 

Hi @croseks , Is it possible if you run your TA against Energy sector (i.e. ASX: FUEL). What is the short and medium trend for it? Thanks!

 

I have the popcorn out. What is it going to do? One or two more green days to 2700 for the Spider would be textbook. Then rollover for the final big leg down. Fundamentals are very likely to be horrible in April supporting a down move but is the Fed over riding everything? If the Fed is distorting proper price discovery then I will stay out of these rigged markets I reckon.

 

Till corona comes and kills your theory.

 

Risk management is EVERYTHING.

 

I read an article this morning, that the jobless numbers were so much worse then expected that the markets are now confident that there will be more stimulus lol but overall still following the same trajectory.

Found this on bloomberg, comparing it to 1929.

 

Can you please expand on risk management analysis?

 

Honestly what kind of thinking is that? Am I being irrational and out of touch? My view is there is a massive shock and dislocation to every industry. GDP is going down big time. OK take the US for example, they are putting in about 10% of GDP but from what I can see the damage is maybe double that. The big question is can life and the economy get back to normal very quickly after an event like this. I don't think so. I know the markets are forward looking 6-12 months but business,government and the consumer is shell shocked and will be afraid to spend for an extended period smashing tax receipts,spending and profits throughout the whole economy for at a guess 12-18 months or longer. There is the extra debt taken on by all and sundry to deal with on top of everything else. I can only see really tough times ahead to be honest. Am I over over estimating the damage here? Clearly I am in the minority in the investment community at present but maybe with the majority in the real world thinking.

 

It relates to the second part of that post you read - forming a strategy around the basic premise of buy when it's going up, and sell when it's going down.

You never know what's around the corner, so you need to develop a way to know when you're 'wrong'. So you can exit. Automatically, preferably.

There's a million tools you can use to analyse the markets, and they can be super simple, or they can be ridiculously complex. You need to decide what makes sense to you - and then, you have to USE it.

 

So the first part is easy, buy on a solid uptrend. The second part regarding risk management by setting stop losses is extremely hard, bordering impossible and cancels out the first part. Equals techincal analysis IS hard.

With that theory you would be out of the market now and awaiting solid gains to re-enter the market. Essentially buying high, selling low.

I think I'll stick with the buy and hold strategy and hope/pray when I need to exit the market is solid.

 

I thought you were meant to sell in a rising market and buy in a falling one? i.e. re-balancing does this for you. So confusing!

 

Sure - you do you

No-one said the market was easy - simple, maybe, but not easy. Setting stops is easy if you have spent the time creating a strategy.

 

I prefer to buy a rising market - why would you buy when the price is falling? If the same applied to property, everyone would be buying in Perth over the last 5-10 years....and yet no-one is/was.

Best time - ie, lowest risk time - to buy is after a big fall, when the price starts showing some strength again...the trick is in being able to recognise that point.

 

yeah sorry. was just being a little cheeky (cabin fever already). In this environment I would be happy missing 10% of the rebound and waiting for confirmation. Same as at the top. You can never time it. Very stressful being a falling knife catcher. Tried that stupid tactic years ago many times, and my butt is still hurting!

 

Not sure how to load a picture, but if you look at the ASX200 (XJO) on the 4 hour chart, there's a clear descending channel it is operating in.

 

I started trading in 2008 - it's safe to say I also learned the (very) hard way.

 

hi jess,

any tips for a novice newbie share investor? i.e books to read, podcasts to follow and any people to watch follow etc. ie equity story??

thanks in advance.
yorkie