Stock on market. When will increase (Sydney)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Illusivedreams, 20th Jan, 2020.

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  1. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Hey guys

    Looking at some knock down rebuilds and similar projects but im finding very little stock.

    Their seems to be a fair amount of competition. So im deciding at what point more stock will come on the market.

    I think February will be the start. What are your opinions?

    Cheers
     
  2. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think you will see stock increases in next year or so. Holding costs are going down and there has been minimal price improvements in last 3-4 years - net net house prices are same as those on 2016 hence no reason for stock uptick!
     
  3. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    What about the sellers that missed to sell in 2016/17 now price rebounded would sell.
    What about the sellers just wanting to sell to move house upgrade , down size, resize.
     
  4. fols

    fols Well-Known Member

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    Post Australia Day weekend has been the traditional kick off for the new year campaigns. That said, the feedback I am getting from agents is there is no big increase in supply coming.

    You are correct thinking that a rebound in prices should see some sellers take action , however their concern is they will have nothing to buy should they sell.

    It’s a stand- off! And it’s putting upward pressure on prices.
     
  5. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    I just spoke to my local agent he is a friend.
    I wanted to get his take . He said that he has listings coming on to market from Mid Febaury.
    His opinion is March will start to see many listings coming on the market.
    This is based on clients his working with now to get listings going.
     
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  6. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    @Redom
    Can I ask where we can attain stock on market data?
     
  7. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Corelogic have a weekly report that has stock listings - I get it every Monday morning in my inbox i think. Their newsletter has it. Also try @petewargent, data guru!
     
  8. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Thank you Guys for the information.
     
  9. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Redom

    Is that fee or subscriber ?

    Also sqm research has it , with break downs of states and suburbs , but Monthly . Decrease in stock nationwide was the biggest I''ve seen for a while and the first in a few for a while .

    I'd never base something like that on a prediction of one agent . I talk to agents but only to find out what is happening now .

    Cliff
     
  10. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. He is a gun in the area with no vested interest in this advice. I just need a second opinion on strategy.
     
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  11. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    I think we are looking at a few years of lower stock in Sydney.

    You will probably see apartments to be more available but houses, duplexes and townhouses there will be much less of them. I had predicted good price increases for Sydney, and to date, I have been mostly right.
     
  12. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    So you assume stock will continue to rise in Price(Houses in specific)

    How long to do you expect the lower stock levels to be in place? 1 year or more?
     
  13. Tenex

    Tenex Well-Known Member

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    There will be a steady inflow of older houses not that different from what you have seen in 2019, however if they do cut interest rate then the demand may be slightly higher and therefore pushing prices higher for good reason.

    Newer houses (single, duplex or townhouses) there will be less of them on the market purely because of the decisions that were made in the past few years making it not viable for people to build and building approvals dropping. I anticipate this "may" change over the next few years depending on state of economy. With apartments there will always be a lot of stock available but I would generally not get too involved with apartment buying or building.

    I have just sold 2 duplexes in Sydney last year which I will post about when I get an opportunity and about to embark on a new duplex build, which I will also try to post on. If I was able to, I would buy more in Sydney. There is good money to be made if you know what to buy.
     
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  14. Jana

    Jana Well-Known Member

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    Glad, you made good money on Duplex. Few my colleagues in the circle bought and built duplex then burnt their fingers. The reason is mainly not the correct buying price and not right location...
     
  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Yeah but will those naysayers who endlessly bagged you now come out and apologise? Course not. That's all they like to do. Ridicule with their nonsensical English then run away.
     
  16. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I have been busy using the great market to sell. At the same time buying in non Sydney and Melbourne markets.

    I am selling one near Newcastle. Rushing to get renos done and house on market by mid Feb. partly to time the 7000 open spots for grants. House bought for 205k....hoping to get near 4s...so that is almost 95% gain and post renos/agents.etc...more like 75-80% profit before tax. FHB grant is in NSW regionals is 450k max...very little under 450k at the moment. I am hoping FOMO will get them to pay over asking....but may not have that luxury post March.

    Stock in Sydney and Newcastle is expect to open up significantly by March as owners list. I want to get in before the market is more stock. I did this in Melbourne and got a great result.

    On other side of the equation is rent yields are shocking...agents are saying that market is still dropping in a lot of areas. This will not encourage investors back significantly.

    It is much harder to sell than buy in my opinion...as market moves differently.

    Know a person who time it well in Inner West...property (unit) bought in 2014 for 450k....just sold for 705k. It sounds like a huge profit of 255k..but you have to take costs like stamps/legal 17k....sell/marketing costs 18k...and then a small reno cost of 21k. So total costs are like 56k.

    So real profit is about 199k...which frankly shocked me as I expected it to be more juicy in profits. I looked at my profit if I sell at 385k it would be buy costs 7k..sell costs 12k....renos 18k so profit is about 148k so about 50k different.

    To many people look at the gross gain..but do not consider the cost of holding an renos..and land tax. For my Newie one...I would also save another 4k odd in land tax yearly.
     
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  17. wilso8948

    wilso8948 Well-Known Member

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    I did see price thresholds in Newy and Lake Mac are $700k not $450k. Although from memory you hold in Maitland area? Not sure if it drops to $450k out that way?
     
  18. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yes in Maitland .. it does....lots of buyers now can't afford Newcastle are headed that way. Mine just scapes by....Newcastle via the expressway is now about 25 min. My neighbor sold in Newcastle and bought his outright 2 years ago for about 420k....but it was a much nicer house on bigger block. He reckons once reno'd will be high 4s. Mine is a ex-houso....but the block is just under 700sqm...can put a granny, dupex, or even subdivided once a house is put in first. The front is about 19-20 sqm wide.
     
  19. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    Understand your reasons around timing the FHB grant, but are you not concerned with selling early if we see another cut or 2 this year and growth continues another 10-20% ?

    I can see outer Melbourne benefiting in the next couple of years due to affordability, your talking 4s. Once Melb is far out of reach for most, people will head your way in droves.
     
  20. wilso8948

    wilso8948 Well-Known Member

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    Mate it takes 25 mins from Jesmond let alone up the expressway. May be able to do it at 3am? Hexham, the link road coming off the expressway and Newcastle road leading into town are the biggest bottlenecks in the region.

    The Expressway has opened up the valley and reduced travel times once you get out of these though. I noticed Mr McCloy has bought the Hydro Aluminium site in Kurri for another 2000 lots. But they need to seriously do something about these choke points if people continue to commute into the city.