Stock investment resources

Marks' tennis analogy is fantastic.

 

Not necessarily a fan of Marcus Padley but thought his article on Goupthink and its impact on the major banks was a useful read. His view on AReits I think is a good one. I shudder when I look at what's happening in this sector. Or perhaps it's just my memory of what happened during the GFC? Fortunately AReits don't meet my investing criteria so I'll happily leave them to others in their hunt for yield (beware the yield trap).

 

This was my point on the major LICs selling down banks into the crowded mid/small trade. Value is being presented because of consensus.

There will be significant yield compression in banks in the next 12 months driven by stock prices. . The gap between TCL at 4% unfranked and the banks is simply too large. Just waiting on sentiment change......

 

@The Falcon . Are you able to elaborate a bit more on your sentiment. Yields will fall as price rises? or something else.

 

Yes that's it. Yield hunt will bid up prices.

 

Hi mate,

Yes you are right of course. Utter rubbish I was speaking the other day based on silly over-reactive emotions rather than belief and common sense.

Fortunately this isn't happening with all the major LICs though. Our largest LIC holding being MLT and BKI which is becoming my preferred LIC going forward aren't following in the same footsteps as others like WHF and AFI which are reducing their bank exposure.

BKI Quarterly Report
What do you think about the Banks now?

http://bkilimited.com.au/investment/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/1565872.pdf

And MLT's latest annual report appears to show no indication of them reducing bank holdings.

http://milton.com.au/sites/default/files/MILTON Annual Report 2016finalforprinting.pdf

Some criticise the Milners but I've been investing with them for a long time now (MLT in particular) and I'm very comfortable having them manage a significant portion of our money. And I must add that they do this for a reduculously low fee of 0.13% for MLT and 0.16% for BKI.

 

A very interesting tool for stock screening. The bigger the snowflake the better.

Simply Wall St - Become a better investor

I

 

A Dozen Ways to Apply the Lessons Taught in the Book “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks

A Dozen Ways to Apply the Lessons Taught in the Book “The Most Important Thing” by Howard Marks

 

Book is still sitting on my shelf, the below pretty much sums up why.

"To achieve superior investment results, you have to hold non-consensus views regarding value, and they have to be accurate. That’s not easy."

It is so much easier to just buy LICs and there aren't so many cliffs. Still an interesting article and I still need to educate myself, will have to put the effort.

If start getting hate mail about how boring I am these days I'll be forwarding it to PC chat LIC investors anonymous.

 

Howard Marks on expert opinions as a coin toss
by Graham Hand on January 25, 2017

Howard Marks on expert opinions as a coin toss - Cuffelinks

Full paper:
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

 

EVERYTHING I KNOW ABOUT INVESTING I learned in court. As part of my litigation practice, I represent investors harmed by the misconduct of stockbrokers, investment advisors and financial planners. Some cases can be brought in court. Most have to be arbitrated before the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Many of these cases have common themes that teach important lessons about investing.

Link

 

Quote of the day:

An investor should always know his limitations.

I am definitely not smart enough to trade in and out of stocks. So I never sell.

If you are super smart or just plain lucky, you can make money trading in and out of stocks.

But I have always believed, and studies have shown, that the less trading that you do the better.

A large investment firm recently did a study. Their best investors were either dead or had forgotten that they had investments in their accounts.

I am not quite dead yet and as far as I know I don't have any memory problems, but the way that I invest has a lot of similarities to the dead investors or the forgetful investors at that large investment firm. I only buy. I never sell. And I don't buy unless I think it is a great investment opportunity.

Buyandhold 2012's Comments | Seeking Alpha

 

@austing I like the cut of this Buyandhold 2012 fellows jib

 

I didn't know about this guy until one of you posters here mentioned him. Fantastic stuff. Love how he answers questions in quote fashion. Almost poetic. He certainly has a wealth of experience behind him. Can relate to him 100%.

 

This guy is so entertaining. He keeps repeating himself almost in every other posts as if he is trying to educate readers. He not only talks stocks he talks politics strange view sometimes but then again makes sense after he explained.

 

Hi @austing

Reminds me of the Rip Van Winkle Portfolio

Rip Van Winkle reportedly fell asleep for about 20 years after drinking moonshine outside his village in the Catskill Mountains in New York State.

He awakes to discover shocking changes. His musket is rotting and rusty, his beard is a foot long, and his dog is nowhere to be found. Van Winkle returns to his village where he recognizes no one. He discovers that his wife has died and that his close friends have fallen in a war or moved away. He gets into trouble when he proclaims himself a loyal subject of King George III, not aware that the American Revolution has taken place. King George's portrait in the inn has been replaced with one of George Washington. Rip Van Winkle is also disturbed to find another man called Rip Van Winkle. It is his son, now grown up.

Imagine if Rip Van Winkle had invested in the market before falling asleep and then waking 20 years later- how would his portfolio look as the world changed

Rip Van Winkle would be an ideal investor, says Richard Thaler, the University of Chicago economist who specializes in behavioural finance. After investing in stocks, Mr. Van Winkle would sleep through all the ups and downs in the stock market over the next 20 years and emerge a prosperous man.

Mr. Thaler means to say, of course, that investors are better off not checking their portfolios too much. History shows stocks have generated the best returns of any asset class over the long run within North America – but they are volatile in the short run and investors who track things too closely are more likely to be frightened out of their positions prematurely.

 

DEEP RISK - Ben Carlson

An interesting article referencing Bill Bernstein's book. Those arguing for global diversification will be pleased with the conclusion. The other main conclusion is that over the very long term inflation has the highest probability of being the greatest enemy:
Deep Risk Under President Trump

William Bernstein on the Definition of Risk

The book has been discussed in a few threads on the Boglehead forum with comments from the author. Here's one:

 

Anyone likes to go?
Cost is about $400. That's not bad.

 

I think there's a couple of members here who said they were going to the next course. See the Thornhill thread here:

Peter Thornhill (1)

Peter Thornhill (2)

Peter Thornhill (3)