Trading Stochastic Indicator - This is strange

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Frank Manno, 28th Mar, 2019.

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  1. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Geezus this is painful to watch.

    Frank just send me your money. I’ll return 1/4 of it after 6 months.

    Or scratchies, lots of scratchies.
     
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  2. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Not the least bit painful to me.

    It is intriguing, bemusing and a whole lot of ing's but I experience no pain whatsoever as it evolves.

    If past experiences are any guide I can guess where it may eventually end at which point I'll mentally shrug my shoulders and think "There goes another one."

    There is a shortage of chill pills and if I work really, really hard (unlikely) I'll corner the market in those and make a fortune.
     
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  3. Kinnon

    Kinnon Well-Known Member

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    Either trading view or the software built in to the various platforms which don't have the restrictions like trading view does.
     
  4. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Again that was a rather nasty post of mine. I must be in one of those moods and I believe I know why.

    To be honest it is one of those aspects of finance which isn't the best thing and that is being seduced by money or the thought of making it in some special esoteric way. It frustrates the heck out of me some fall for it. I don't know why I even care if others financially blow themselves up and possibly I don't.

    A quiet period of contemplation can cause you to wonder "Who is on the other side of the action." It then doesn't take much to realise you're up against bots and other entities who have got an array of peoples (behaviorists, mathematicians, psychologists, astrophysicists) with a deeper understanding than you of what the probabilities are. When you're up against that sort of fire power you will eventually lose.
     
  5. Kinnon

    Kinnon Well-Known Member

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    Geez, that's a bit harsh.... making a mockery of someone trying to learn a new skill and better themselves just because it's not your cup of tea.

    Plenty have failed but also plenty have succeeded. We all have to start somewhere and how can you learn if you don't ask questions.
     
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  6. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Based on personal experience, yep I couldn’t be told, unfortunately for many the only way to learn the lesson is to experience it first hand. I was lucky it was when I was much younger. Can be a disaster if it goes pear shaped when there is no / minimal human capital left to recover from the likely outcome.

    There’s something about humans and money when it comes to greed / gambling. Even with the sharemarket history just keeps repeating itself over and over and over .... . Humans in general never seem to learn no matter how much evidence / experience from others they are presented with.

    8A5D0589-0C5E-4B7C-9239-128BB5FE689B.jpeg

    Then again occasionally some succeed. Just be aware of the odds though. It’s why if you’re gonna have a go then get well educated and psychologically prepared.
     
  7. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, ok. Better themselves, yes I like that. This will definitely be beneficial for Frank. Lets see.
     
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  8. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    It's one of those things where you're very uncomfortable and deep down in your gut there is this sinking feeling.

    The OP has previously posted about being a few years from retirement and having a very reasonable amount of funds to invest with a view to conserving that and letting it grow and receiving dividends.

    Then there is this slight shift. Hmmm, one starts to wonder and also ponder at what point does it stop? Oh, I've lost $5k, let's see if this will work to get it back. Yea, I've made $2k so let's try this.

    And on it goes until there is a bit of a realisation, all confidence in one's ability or lack of it aside, it could have been better not to start in the first place.

    As an analogy, which is slightly tangential, I sometimes go to the races. Take a few hundred which is way less than I can afford and is a relatively piddling amount. However, I want to win but I go with that amount of funds on the basis that is as much as I am prepared to lose. If I'm lucky, ie apply my superb skills in selecting the right horses, and make as much as I took plus the amount I have wagered I'll stop

    So has the OP a firm commitment once it's either gone, or the profit limit has been achieved, the exercise is completely finished?

    Human behaviour and there are a number of posters on here who know themselves very well, can see danger signs and so have these nagging doubts. Hence the style of their comments at a guess. As for me? Like others I've seen so much of it in the past and the havoc it can cause, I'd like to reach down the screen and yell come to your effing senses.
     
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  9. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    OP requested investment expertise that was given and apparently ignored. Frustration is justified with the amount of experience at hand and the most likely outcome.
     
  10. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps you can help as a mathematician. Don’t you have a trading program based on Chaos Theory?
     
  11. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    Statistically speaking and for a long enough time frame, VAS will outperform a randomly chosen ASX 200 stock, which will outperform a person trading without an edge (knowing more than the market). The problem with human trading is they make irrational non-random decisions (E.G. chase losses) when in fact, if they randomly bought and sold keeping all their money in equities they would statistically do better discounting brokerage fees.

    The only reason not to use index ETFs is if you know more than the market. IE insider trading, good research, a trading edge followed religiously that uses insights into the market that haven't been arbitraged out. These require time that I do not have to waste.

    Chaos theory is why we can't create a model for the market. One trader can have a drastic impact and no model can predict what side of the bed they got out of that morning.
     
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  12. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Sometimes Left.

    Sometimes Right

    Sometimes Top

    Depends on the occasion.
     
    Last edited: 30th Mar, 2019
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  13. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Damn:(.
     
  14. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    You left out bed getting raised and sliding out into a pair of pants (watch to the end) :

     
  15. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Plus Member

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    @Frank Manno Hey buddy!

    Yes, it can be right. Two different time frames can most definitely have a different indication and most often they will!!

    Welcome to the world of TA where nothing is definite and you need to let go of western concepts of learning where 'precisely defined answers' apply. With TA, it's all probabilities based thinking and you never know anything for sure, but you can build a case for likelihood of a particular outcome.

    Frank, the stochastic is what is known as an 'oscillator' indicator and falls under the category of 'lagging' indicators. All lagging indicators generate many false signals and you are gong to find yourself wondering why you can't 'get it to work' consistently:

    Learning an effective method of TA and being able to consistently profit from it is one of the most difficult and frustrating undertakings you could ever wish for.

    Over the past 25+ years I have studied, charted, and tested a very comprehensive list of methodologies including all the popular ones in the public space plus a great number of others that remain hidden. This includes both mechanical and discretionary approaches. some requiring an NDA agreement signed before they would even release the information. To cut a long story short, My conclusion is that ALL mechanical systems are not sustainable (only work temporarily and the edge is often also weak in comparison to discretionary methods).

    There are only 3 main schools of TA that actually work as a universal method..... Gann/Elliott/Andrews schools with some peripheral schools and concepts that are really a 'spin off' of one of these main schools. All of them are based on the same fundamental principles of harmonics and any one of them if studied thoroughly (assuming an appropriate commitment and intelligence level) will bring mastery over a long period of dedicated work and experience.

    The ICE group site.......


    Institute of CosmoEconomics


    .....is one the best (and one of the only!) places to source genuine education on harmonic methods, but let me warn you this is some seriously valuable and closely guarded information that is neither cheap or simple in nature. This is their new site so I'm not sure that all ares are fully functional yet. One thing you will quickly notice is that when beginning this kind of study pathway, the sheer complexity and volume of information is frightening and puts off 99% of those who are investigating: As far as I am concerned that's great!! Information and skills as valuable as these should require a hefty price to be paid (in terms of commitment involved), there is no shortcut.

    The ICE group is publishing my upcoming book and carries a lot on information on the genuine methods of market understanding but expect to be overwhelmed by a very complex array of information. There is no such thing to a 'quick' answer to gaining market reading and charting skills, the price must be paid in years of dedicated research, application, 10,000+ hours of charting experience. Rightly so too.......my view is that quality TA skills are the most valuable skill set to acquire as an investor bar none.

    The reason why lagging indicators exploded in popularity over the past 20 years was that with the advances in technology, systems engineers felt that it would it would be possible to design an ideal mechanical method for trading markets that could be executed by a computer and consistently delivered profits. Apart from the big corp orates algo-trading set ups (which as a strategy BTW only have a very weak edge but works due to the sheer scale of what banks can imperilment), I can tell you that this will never happen for the average punter. The harmonics based systems are too complex and involve making observations and decisions that a computer cannot be programmed to do. So the human brain is an absolutely necessary part of the equation to be successful.

    For those willing to listen I can save you a lot of time and headaches, not to mention the confusion.....I have spent a ridiculous number of hours searching out the very best resources and market masters from around the world to study, personally consult with and learn from I am all for self education so don't take what I am about to say the wrong way, if you are going to take an education pathway just be careful you don't end up wasting several years being lost and confused until you eventually realize that what I am saying here was the truth all along. My aim here is offering helpful info and keeping people safe from both the markets and all the online rubbish posing as TA education.

    Without having a properly established TA skill set and knowledge base to draw from, simply using a few indicators on a chart in an effort to make profitable buy and sell decisions is akin to a form of gambling and most people have NO business attempting this.

    I personally detest any TA system dependent on lagging indicators. In comparison to learning how to use drawing tools and understanding wave counts etc, they are a lot less valuable as TA tools and have very little value as a stand alone indication. Even learning the basics of price action is FAR more effective than any lagging indicator as a skill set for market reading in terms of generating any real and sustainable edge.

    The real KEY answer to understanding the market deeply lies elsewhere in the science of numbers and harmonics (actually it's a MUCH deeper topic than that and no-one would believe me if I started to elaborate on the truth of it, most people are just not ready to hear it). Acquiring genuine TA skills is NOT an easy pathway to learn.

    In fact it is one of the most challenging but the ONLY way you will gain a proper understanding and confidence in your own knowledge and abilities. It takes many years of training before an appropriate level of understanding can be achieved, there are NO shortcuts and IMHO no one ever achieves this without personal mentor-ship from an experience TA practitioner who understands one of the market harmonics schools of TA (Gann/Elliott/Andrews being the main ones) properly - there are very few of these teachers around and even fewer willing to teach this stuff without holding back a lot of their best knowledge.

    Most of the courses available today are pure garbage (not all) and don't teach anything like the authentic methods of past masters. Like for a lot of things, it's a case of the clever internet promoters more interested in marketing/selling their courses dominating online with aggressive marketing. In a lot of cases (not all) the people promoting the information are not skilled market practitioners themselves and will offer little to no support after the course is sold.

    For anyone interested in become a little more active as an investor, I would encourage you to be careful that you avoid going down the path that most novice investors traders take who are looking to 'dabble'. Using simple mechanical indicators will not work effectively.. It can look deceptively easy, plus be an exciting new venture and feel like 'fun' but this is what makes it some what like gambling. Effective investment decisions need to be made on hard numbers, market analysis and depth of understanding of all the risks and benefits. Emotion is best left out of the equation :)

    No advice
     
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  16. dunno

    dunno Well-Known Member

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    Do you try in vein or do you just let it be?????????
     
  17. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Let it be, let it be
    Let it be, let it be
    Whisper words of wisdom
    Let it be
     
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  18. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Or a vain attempt at injecting something or other?

    A tad cool at Mallacoota.
     
  19. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    I have no idea the outcome of a single coin flip. But if I flip a coin a million times I am confident that the number of heads will be very close to 50%.

    Statistics is lost on most but it is ubiquitous in life. The concept should be taught much better in school.

    There is no absolute certainty.

    You may never fly in a plane but die in a plane crash..... when it lands on you.