Steve McKnight Webinar today

He can be quite brutal! I took my 50yr old friend along to a seminar after she went bankrupt to get some direction. He pretty much said once you are 50, have teenage kids it’s difficult to build any financial freedom. Happy to say she bought a nice house in Perth, huge block, 900sqm, good lifestyle late last year and is very happy. I guess in Melbourne it would be a lot harder to do this though! I think he has lots of valid points though!

 

Done..

 

Is he Melb based? When you're in a storm it's hard to see the sun.

 

Frightening watching. Three to five years. Deleveraging here we come

 

He's a bit of a weirdo...

 

You think so? He’s been spot on with most of his predictions, wish I’d had the confidence to act on them

 

I agree with @MTR, I listened to it yesterday, it was a bit depressing. He is a number guy and very conservative. This doesn`t mean he is wrong. The whole message was "get ready because it is going to be tough, however, if you see an opportunity and you are ready for it, go for it".

 

Its not a personality competition

 

You're probably right, but I just find it hard to trust someone's assessment (which may or may not be valid), when he's so obviously obsessed with things that aren't founded in fact, that he brings into every aspect of his life.

 

Fair enough
I just look at his track record

mind you I think this time seems a bit over the top, hoping his wrong

 

His pandemic data is pretty outdated and extreme. I think he understands property but he doesn't understand the pandemic nearly as well. Still, his advice is good as always.

 

hope you are right

 

Did he make any predictions during the GFC? If so, how accurate did they turn out? I think it's very important during this time of high stress we do not throw the baby out with the bath water.

 

I think more important is just to manage risk, whatever that means for each person

it may get alot more uglier? We just dont know?

for example, we are seeing some fall out now

rents falling in Syd/Melb

Price drops, Syd/Melb (fragmented)

Unemployment increasing

Banks tightening lending

 

I think he sold out of Australia and took his profits then jumped into USA market making a killing here

Is track record speaks for itself. At the same time no one is God..... investors who survive to live another day understand that preserving capital in downturn is key

Plenty on this forum have seen downturns, you could ask these people

I have given u my point of view coming from my experiences

 

Thought this might be a relevant insight regarding his previous behavior:
Steve Mcknight says not to buy now....
(jun 2008)

I also found an article by him from 2014 predicting a market crash and not to buy at that time.

His track record is indeed very interesting.

Of course, to excuse his previous records, as they say: past performance is no guarantee of future returns...

If I were to focus on only his current statement (going off the slides only) disregarding his past performance, I would focus on a few facets:

- he says pandemic will continue til dec2022, he may be right about this in that I don't think a vaccine will be out before then
- he conflates global circumstances with local/Aussie circumstances
- he says as though for a fact "your income will drop 50%"
- and quite a lot of other assumptions I don't agree with, which lead to his doomsday predictions

On the whole he may be right that certain investments including property as a whole may underperform.

But his conclusion of (essentially) "batten down the hatches and just try to survive" is not one that I agree with, there are opportunities in every situation and even with regard to property only, each property market (suburb, street etc) is different.

 

His analysis of markets is always great I think. I just think in this case the data inputs regarding the pandemic are wrong and that's what he's made his predictions on.

Given the data he presented regarding the pandemic I too would be pessimistic about the future.

 

That's quite interesting, he arguably got the first call wrong given Aus property did fine during the GFC, but absolutely nailed the USA market.

I definitely agree on having a solid plan B and risk mitigation. Anyone that doesn't is a gambler not an investor.

 

I would say he took profits from Aussie property market. He has many eggs in many baskets

 

Just finished watching this.

Very sensible. Plan for the worst for at least 2 years and expect the best. Makes sense to reduce consumption right now and have buffers for debt and longer term possible rent losses if this drags on for a couple of years and job losses are extreme. If things turn out better, no harm done.

His pandemic and virus insights could (as some have indicated) be way off. Then again, if this hangs around for a while and a reliable and safe vaccine is a while off, the lowest common denominator of human stupidity and selfishness will hamper efforts to curtail the spread. Not just here, but everywhere. There is a balancing act to health and safety versus economic destruction, however that isn't going to be known until after the fact with the benefit of the retrospectoscope.

Jobkeeper and elevated job seeker payments aren't going to go on ad infinitum. The sooner people understand that it pays for everyone to be sensible and look out for one another, then the mask impositions and movement limitations will be relaxed. Thereafter wear a mask if you feel the need or are ill and keep your distance........ Just my 0.02