Steve keen latest update. 2017 recession, 20-70% drop in house prices

Keen offloaded his place when the Sydney median was around $500K, and it's now $1 million. If prices fell by 70% then the median would be $300K, which would be about 40% less than when he sold, and was the magnitude of the crash he predicted in 2008.

 

Let's not get into nuances. But just for your interest, if you wanted to be scientific about it, Sydney's median house price is kept down by new housing. His house is probably triple of not more in value.

 

Being argumentative, a tripling in prices, followed by a 70% fall, would still constitute a 10% fall.

$500K * 3 = $1.5 million
$1.5 million * 0.3 = $450K

About 50,000 homes are being added to Sydney's stock each year at present, and there are between 1.5 and 2 million there already. The median, by its nature, strips out the cheap places in Mt. Druitt, along with Point Piper mansions. So I don't see how adding a couple of hundred thousand at the bottom end would skew prices to the extent you're suggesting.

 

Maybe it would help to resolve the dilemma that @Perthguy and @barnes have offered if Steve Keen were asked what would happen if there were a credit crunch in the Australian residential property market...

And the opportunities thus presented for the rest of us...

 

Hehe.
I wonder if he would be in the market again if that happened.

 

ouch

 

Steve Keen has no credibility left. He just needs to move on and get over his obsession with Sydney real estate prices. Prices in Sydney are not going to crash until:
1. The population stops increasing by 100k per annum- highly unlikely
2. People priced out of Sydney vote with their feet and wallets and relocate to other capital cities throughout Australia- not likely due to family and emotional attachments

 

Can't touch this

 

Haha you're tempting me...

Because the new 50,000 all gets counted in sold properties. The existing 1.5-2 million is existing stock, not transactions.

The median is therefore naturally skewed towards the bottom end because that's where the vast majority of transactions are.

 

Who knows what could happen if the state gets into too much debt:
With the AusGrid sale back to square one could NSW’s plans for new roads and rail lines be under thereat?

 

LOL!
Typical neoliberal bs.
Well said Mr Stevens

Edit- The NSW Government can provide all of that $20 billion infrastructure without having to sell of AusGrid.

 

What's a neoliberal, John Howard's great grandson with a shaved head?