Steve keen latest update. 2017 recession, 20-70% drop in house prices

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Barny, 30th Jul, 2016.

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  1. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Barny, 30th Jul, 2016
    #1
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  2. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Isn't that what he said last time... when he sold his house and then the prices shot up. He should have held his house, just to hedge his bets.

    Our three sons have all bought houses. I've suggested my brother get his 20 year old daughter to buy a cheapie townhouse for around $300k (one of his sons has one), rent it out while she is going to uni for the next three to four years. With such a cheap buy in price, the rent would cover the loan.

    He said to me "what if house prices crash?" and "what if interest rates rise?"

    I said if that happens, at least she can move into her own place, get a few friends to move in and not have to pay rent somewhere.

    My brother and I (and I love him and respect him) are "chalk and cheese" when it comes to investment houses. He is too cautious and I'm not cautious enough.

    If things go bad, if the economy tanks, and if house prices crash, then we will deal with it like everyone else will have to. We will not be alone.
     
    wylie, 30th Jul, 2016
    #2
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  3. vbplease

    vbplease Well-Known Member

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    If I was as bad at my job as Keen, I would have been unemployed a long time ago.. Surely the only reason he still gets media attention is because his views are so extreme? Wouldn't waste my time listening to his interviews.
     
    vbplease, 30th Jul, 2016
    #3
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  4. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    I understand his predictions have been wrong on many occasions, but how bout the actual questions that were asked in the interview, and his responses?
     
    Barny, 30th Jul, 2016
    #4
  5. hammer

    hammer Well-Known Member

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    Oh man! With those sensationalist headlines Its hard to take that claim seriously...

    Which kinda sucks as he does have a point. A recession is totally plausible at this point, has been for some time. I don't think anyone on here would deny that.

    I doubt it will be as grave as he makes it out to be, but having a big buffer and deleveraging is probably not a bad idea.
     
    hammer, 30th Jul, 2016
    #5
  6. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Geeze, is this guy still around?
    He must have been born without an embarrassment gene.
     
    Azazel, 30th Jul, 2016
    #6
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  7. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    Sadly, at some point, he will most likely be correct.
    And then he will be 'the guy that predicted the crash'

    He clearly isn't betting on it though, otherwise he would have gone broke a long time ago.

    I'd love to know how/where he makes his money.

    Blacky
     
    Blacky, 30th Jul, 2016
    #7
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  8. Terry_w

    Terry_w Lawyer, Tax Adviser and Mortgage broker in Sydney Business Member

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    Yes, he will get it right one day. Like that Harry Dent guy.
     
    Terry_w, 30th Jul, 2016
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  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    There is a huge difference between 20% and 70% though. Hedging his bets somewhat?
     
    wylie, 30th Jul, 2016
    #9
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  10. Journeyman

    Journeyman Well-Known Member

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    What will change in supply and demand to warrant such a shift? (I did not watch the IV)
     
    Journeyman, 30th Jul, 2016
    #10
  11. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Arthur Dent has more credibility :p
     
    Scott No Mates, 30th Jul, 2016
    #11
  12. Oshawott

    Oshawott Well-Known Member

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    I predict there will be a price movement of between +100% to -100%. Yes i called it. These other noobs got nothing on me.
     
    Oshawott, 30th Jul, 2016
    #12
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  13. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Make enough predictions and one will eventually come to pass.

    Recessions are part of the economic cycle and also when the most opportunities are available, so when one comes why are people surprised.

    If your not in negatively geared territory and have tenants plus some cash buffers you can ride it out comfortably.

    In the current environment for Perth you can create equity and therefore be in a neutral to positive position either-way if done right!
     
    Colin Rice, 30th Jul, 2016
    #13
  14. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    He said 20-70% because he went by other countries that have also dropped by that amount similar to our country.
     
    Barny, 30th Jul, 2016
    #14
  15. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Thats certain to come to pass :)
     
    Colin Rice, 30th Jul, 2016
    #15
  16. Colin Rice

    Colin Rice Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Im not saying it is out of the realms of possibility but is he comparing apples with apples taking into account population growth or lack of as well as credit policies of lending institutions to name a few variables to consider?

    Where the countries he is comparing to experiencing population growth or deficit as this would be a major driving factor for demand?
     
    Colin Rice, 30th Jul, 2016
    #16
  17. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    The sun will rise tomorrow.
     
    larrylarry, 30th Jul, 2016
    #17
  18. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    The Pokèmon will Go.
     
    Scott No Mates, 30th Jul, 2016
    #18
  19. Johnny Cashflow

    Johnny Cashflow Well-Known Member

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    This guy sounds like someone who picks the winner after the race
     
    Johnny Cashflow, 30th Jul, 2016
    #19
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  20. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Yes!
     
    larrylarry, 30th Jul, 2016
    #20
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