State by state analysis - AFR ..

Was having my daily AFR dose and thought worth sharing ..

House price rebound to push up debt: Moody's Analytics

"It is important to keep the correction in context. House values in Sydney remain around 60 per cent higher than they were in 2012."

The correction is expected to continue in Melbourne though, with house values expected to slump 10.8 per cent in 2019, after a more moderate decline of 0.3 per cent in 2018.

"The decline in 2019 in Greater Melbourne’s housing market is broad-based, with particular falls in the inner regions," the report said.

"Melbourne’s apartment market is also expected to endure a modest correction in 2019 and 2020."

House values in Brisbane are forecast to experience a mild correction in 2019, with home values in South Brisbane falling more sharply.

In Perth, house values are likely decline 6.9 per cent in 2019, followed by a small recovery in 2020 on the back of an improving local economy and population growth, according to the CoreLogic-Moody's forecasts.

Adelaide's market is predicted to retain its stability, with house values forecast to rise 0.4 per cent in 2019 after a 1.9 per cent gain in 2018.

"The housing correction that took hold in 2018 was a long time coming after a strong run-up in values in the more densely populated markets, including Sydney and Melbourne," the report said.

 

Doesn't make sense. House prices declined a lot more than 0.3% in Melb in 2018. And If Melbourne drops another 10.8% in 2019 we will almost certainly be heading into a recession. Then after calling that a modest correction in 2019, they say there will be another modest correction in 2020? At what point does it become immodest? When we are all eating babies to survive?

AFR needs more/better editors.

 

Yep, Melbourne bit didn't make any sense to me either.. And this is AFR for which you have to pay to get reliable/not gos news.

 

Yeah, AFR is one the best IMO, but this must be full of typos or some error from cut and pasting moody's old modelling. Because it reads like jibberish to me